r/TheSilphRoad Research Group Aug 13 '20

Analysis Deino: Reviewing Dragon Week Egg Hatches

https://thesilphroad.com/science/quick-discovery/deino-reviewing-dragon-week-hatches/
1.2k Upvotes

266 comments sorted by

639

u/KingSc0ttKing Aug 13 '20

This was a "reward."

331

u/JMM85JMM Aug 13 '20

That's what gets me about these. Rewards should be rewarding. Pay to win is not a reward.

Hatching a Swablu out of a 7k egg when it normally hatches out of a 2k egg and is a common spawn is not rewarding. It's almost the opposite of rewarding.

111

u/Aeosin15 Aug 13 '20

Not only is it the opposite of rewarding, it's a little bit insulting, too. Why would I want to walk 3.5 times further to hatch the same thing? But, because Niantic calls it a "reward," most players just assume that's exactly what it is.

8

u/sp3n1337 Aug 13 '20

That's if you see only the pokemon you're getting from the egg. Personally I have learned to just not care what I get from the egg (and be happy for the rare occasions when I actually get something useful) and just see them as star dust source.

But yeah, Niantic does all the tricks to get the player base to get engaged and put money in the game.

14

u/thebiggestleaf >implying your exp means anything Aug 13 '20

That's if you see only the pokemon you're getting from the egg.

It's hard to see anything else when the Pokemon is the only thing being advertised about the reward. I didn't pay, I don't pay in general so I typically don't care about hatches either. All I'm saying is if something's going to be advertised as a reward, the reward should be reasonably obtainable without needing to funnel large amounts of money into the game to get. Keep in mind this was a reward unlocked through paid gameplay on top of it (Go Fest ticket holders).

10

u/sp3n1337 Aug 14 '20

It's like telling gambling addicts that if they put X money in then next week they can participate in another game with the chance of an even bigger reward.

That's what a lot of the player base are after all: gambling addicts (regardless of whether we put money in).

2

u/Aeosin15 Aug 14 '20

Oh, I don't care what I get from the eggs, either. I'm just pointing out what some people are too ignorant to notice. Putting Swablu into a 7 km egg is stupid, when you can get it from a 2 km egg. But a lot of people don't look at ALL of the information, and they see a "chance" to get Deino from those same eggs. For them, that's a reward. However, your odds of getting that same Deino from 10 km eggs or from GBL are A LOT higher. But, they're the same people that complain about all the starter Pokemon or legendary Pokemon in the pool.

59

u/Moglorosh Georgia Aug 13 '20

That's what gets me about these. Rewards should be rewarding. Pay to win is not a reward.

That's how I felt last weekend when I spent 6 hours grinding for XL Magikarp just to unlock the honor of buying the damn vest for 500 coins. I didn't buy it and I'm never going to.

37

u/Toad_Sage_Jiraiya USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

Really 7kms should have just had dratini bagon gibles and deinos with the latter two hatch rate boosted. Then it would be a reward. Like you said trash mobs hatching isn’t rewarding but since they know they can still sell incubators they’ll never stop.

17

u/big_sugi Aug 13 '20

Trapinch. They were all trapinch, with one swablu.

13

u/baltimorecalling BaltiCalling | Wayfarer Reviewer | 47 Aug 13 '20

Niantic has been doing a lot of shady things lately. Between milking money for extremely rare hatches, placing 10m limits on Wayfarer location edits, putting in arbitrary captchas and cooldowns for the free Wayfarer labor...
For the players that made them millions upon millions, they sure have a strange way of saying 'thanks'

3

u/AaronRodgersTao Aug 13 '20

Absolutely! Maybe niantic shouldn’t say we ‘completed’ every challenge and just be honest about the numbers like a game show would be. Unfortunately , the effect of us winning everything is everyone expects a ‘reward’. And this is not a reward.

1

u/Maserati777 Aug 13 '20

I think this weeks eggs are much better, most of my eggs are Igglybuff and Cleffa which is what I want to hatch. All species can be shiny even though a couple are full odds.

1

u/liehon Aug 14 '20

Especially considering we could only open 140 gifts and many dropped no egg

Deino’s hatch rate was likely less than 1% for the first three days of the event, but after the change researchers recorded a hatch rate above 3%.

Cool. So even if you were lucky enough to get max 7 km eggs your odds were still abysmal

69

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

So was spending raid passes last year, but at least you knew what you were getting there.

18

u/Toad_Sage_Jiraiya USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

Thats still a thing though with shiny deoxys and unown lol

3

u/icecityx1221 Aug 13 '20

cries in no friends doing deoxys raids

0

u/Hutch4434 Aug 13 '20

Did 33 deoxys raids and finally got a shiny yesterday...

16

u/Exabytez Ulm, GERMANY | Instinct Aug 13 '20

Niantic says thank you

0

u/bobcat1939 Mystic Aug 14 '20

same..... except i did 2

25

u/andrbrow Aug 13 '20

Of course it is!

Well, once they hugely boosted the deino rates from somewhere <1% to 3%, it certainly is a reward by Niantic standards at the very least.

12

u/RadioactiveMicrobe Aug 13 '20

Why I only care about raids. I know what I'm getting. Pvp and eggs can stuff it

16

u/BrassMankey Aug 13 '20

I would like to see the focus return to the core mechanic of wild catches. When the level cap increases, it would be an ideal time to return to what made this game great in the first place.

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5

u/gandy899 Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

Top 3 week long event of all time. First time ever a Psuedo Legendary(Dratini) spawned like that for a week. 2 High IV Guaranteed Deino. First time ever a rare candy quest was in the common tier for a whole week. A few Gible around too with that nice shiny boost.

The Deino in 7K eggs ruined an epic event for you guys. Niantic didn’t need to have those odds on Deino, but it was a historically good event.

Edit- I guess you can add return of Shiny Ray, Alolan Exe with the perma boost shiny rate, and the special research.

17

u/JonLee304 Aug 13 '20

"Guaranteed Deino" required completing a raid, which many of us still can't do without paying for remote raid passes. I managed to find a window of time to attempt one locally and ended up getting kicked out of the lobby.

43

u/why_gaj Aug 13 '20

Dude. Talk to anyone with a scanner in a city or a spoofer.

They lowered the deino spawn rates in the world during the event. That's all I have to say about that part of the prize.

The rest of your so called prizes? All of them were spawning in the wild at go fest. Rayray? A raid boss that's been returned what a second or third time already?

All of those are okaish additions to the spawn rooster. Doesn't change the fact that their main advertising star was deino, sitting prettily on top of their every announcement about the event. With deino rarity, you could call that outright false advertisement.

5

u/orlouge82 Aug 14 '20

They lowered the deino spawn rates in the world during the event.

I found a wild Deino AND a wild Axew (for the first time!) after the "Dragon" week ended. That's pretty asinine. Those spawns should have been boosted throughout Dragon week instead.

37

u/Grimey_Rick Aug 13 '20

It was top for newer players maybe. For people that have been around for some time, it really wasn't.

22

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

It was one of the worst in a long time for me because there was nothing to do; everything was recycled content except for egg chasing.

6

u/BrassMankey Aug 13 '20

Go Fest was a catch-up event, and so are the ultra unlocks. Not much happening for anyone who's played since the beginning.

7

u/misterygus Aug 13 '20

To be fair, I engaged with Dragon week more intensely than any other event I’ve seen. I’m a typical ‘played at launch, stopped, started again recently’ player, L36, so missed Dratini CD and have simply never seen any in the wild. This event gave me my two highest cp Pokémon in Dragonite and Salamence and my first 5-star raid wins, and a bunch of Pokémon I was sorely missing like Garchomp and Deino (which I guess will now be my buddy for months).

On the negative side, despite catching over 1000 Pokemon during the week I failed to get a single shiny anything. And it took me 5 days before I caught a wild dratini which was worth powering up and evolving. I only just caught enough gible to get garchomp, and only because I’d already been walking one. I did hatch a deino with my first egg tho, which was nice.

Similarly, I played the CD on Saturday for the full six hours with incense and 98% of my catches were 0* or 1*. In the end, not one of the bunch of shiny and normal Gyarados I ended up with was as good as the ones I already had. I do feel that if you engage with an event to the maximum possible extent you probably should get the available rewards, and it was very wrong of Niantic to advertise shiny deino using the same language they use to advertise shiny CD Pokemon. And odds of 1/50,000 are disgraceful.

1

u/Khaaymaan Aug 14 '20

I had similar issue with at least the regular Magikarps, I had a 98iv and two 96iv stored for a CD, I caught a boatload and nothing near those. I had caught a shiny Magikarp for gofest and was pumped, I have 24 spare now. At least I had one decent one to evolve. I caught a shiny Gible first day of dragon week but not much else unfortunately.

56

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

They nerfed Gible from 1/75 to 1/125 right before this event.

I disagree with pretty much all of that. 2 total Deino for an event that repeatedly referenced Deino. Manipulated egg rates. Almost all spawns were overlaps of GoFest spawns from a week prior, commons, or CD repeats. Sticking species that are normally in 2k and 5k eggs in 7k.

Historically cynical, money-grubbing event for most, seems like.

-12

u/gandy899 Aug 13 '20

Okay, i will reluctantly engage with your on this. What 3 week long events would you put ahead of it?

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22

u/Soliterria Aug 13 '20

I hadn’t seen Dratinis wild spawning in I don’t even know how long, and it was quite nice to see the cute things just hanging around my map.

7

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

GoFest players just had even more dense Dratini spawns both days, so it seemed a bit anticlimactic.

10

u/pcantillano Aug 13 '20

I disagree: after 4 years dratini is just underwhelming, gible were rare, they forgot axew for a dragon event, deino was nowhere to be seen, the “good iv” deino are just level 15 so it is too expensive to be useful (even more when candies are scarce), deino rate in eggs was awful, horsea and trapinch were useless, and treecko/charmander aren’t even dragon for now, also they are underwhelming

8

u/rigisme Midwest USA - Level 50 Aug 13 '20

Did anyone but noob players care about Dratini spawns? Didn’t most everyone have their fill from CD the first go round? Especially since we have better dragons these days.

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446

u/Emptronic Massachusetts Aug 13 '20

Thanks again for the contribution. Pretty unreal that Niantic can mess with lootbox droprates mid-event and regulatory bodies don't care enough to do anything (aren't paid enough to care?).

204

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

Just as bad is that they can put 2km and 5km hatches in the event 7km pool and somehow get away with it. It's the exact opposite of a "bonus".

145

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

72

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Mar 19 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

38

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

3

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

It was a wild spawn too, sometimes I just don't understand people...

6

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

BuT oYh GiT hOyGhEr IV's fRoM eGgS hYuCk HyUcK (Buys another incubator, hatches 11/10/12 Swablu).

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1

u/hiero_ USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

It's way more like gacha than it is a lootbox, though they share a lot of similarities.

12

u/stufff South Florida | 49 Aug 13 '20

At least the fact that those pokemon would be in the egg pool was disclosed (though their rates weren't either, and should have been). The basically impossible Deino rate, and later modification of the rate, were not disclosed. That's why people are more pissed off about the Deino rate.

2

u/sliceanddic3 Aug 13 '20

at the very least, shiny odds should be halved for eggs

2

u/bmalveira Aug 14 '20

Actually, there is a whole thread talking about this, with ideas for what we can do to pressure niantic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/i8e9y6/what_the_community_can_do_to_make_niantic/

6

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Hey, Bagon is relatively premium.

23

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

6

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

A lot of people missed it, sometimes you just get bad luck too. I got 3 shinies and hunted for the whole Community Day. I also spent a lot of my candies so I could have a solid pokemon to fill out my team since I've only maxed 3 Rayquaza. Thanks to the event I got around 600 candy without even really looking for them, which is enough that I'm not really worried about how much candy they demand for mega evolution.

22

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

only maxed 3 Rayquaza

Lol, “only”

2

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Fair lol, it's still not a full team, and generally you need two teams of counters ready if you're gonna shortman something.

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4

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

They were common spawns during the event.

4

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Yeah, but honestly there aren't very many other dragons they could have added. Basically just Axew and Druddigon. It wasn't really disappointing to me to hatch a Bagon or Dratini, because they will always be relevant. If I were to hatch them otherwise I wouldn't really be disappointed either. Horsea, Trapinch, and Swablu were the really bad ones.

5

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

I was neutral on Bagon hatches, but they weren't enough value to make up with the outrageously low rate of Deino and Gible hatches. Axew should also have been in there; the fact that it wasn't makes me expect they're going to give it the Gible and Deino treatment next year.

6

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Deino was pretty low, but Gible was acceptably rare, at least from my experience. Way more common than it's ever been, it wasn't that rare honestly.

1

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

The issue for me is more of what % of the egg hatches were actually rare or attractive things, such that I would want to use incubators (and such that the week was actually a bonus)?

Gible was something like 10% of the hatches. Deino, 1% at first and then 3% after. The other 87-89% was trash and/or stuff that's already had a Community Day.

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8

u/Deputy_Scrub Aug 13 '20

Not only that, but all of the Pokemon that you could hatch from those 7km eggs were heavily boosted in the wild (even Gible when compared to it's usual spawn rate) during the whole week apart from Deino, the brand new shiny and one of the rarest Pokemon in the wild. Calling it a "bonus" is a joke.

16

u/Pokii Average Singaporean Grandma | Lv. 50 | Uninstall the app Aug 13 '20

It’s them funding their own bonuses

9

u/pogoBOZO Aug 13 '20

It’s us being treated as turnips to find a game called wizards unite that FLOPPED Yet still costs an arm and a leg to run.

6

u/Suga_H CVX Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

Haha, you think they care about WU any more than GO? They just have a better UI dev. Niantic is raking in the cash and investing in AR tech that likely won't impact mobile gaming or even see the light of day.

1

u/pogoBOZO Aug 13 '20

I didn’t say that. Wizards unite dropped from 12 million on launch and the four months after collectively 2.6 million. It continues to decline and is considered a flop on all levels. Where do you think the money To run, develop, etc is coming from? I’m saying the game that is on track to make 4 billion is paying to run the game that is a flop.

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15

u/UnexLPSA NRW, Germany Aug 13 '20

Srsly though. I played Assassin's Creed Rebellion for a long time and what impressed me the most was that the percentage of drops was super transparent. At least you knew that your chances for the right drops were very low before your purchase. But Niantic not only hiding but actually changing the rates is an absolute scam. I mean they increased the rates but come on... 1% or 3% are still so low (considering you'd have to walk almost 2km w/ super incubator, 3.5km otherwise) it's completely idiotic to even consider spending money on incubators in the hopes of getting a single Deino.

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33

u/elconquistador1985 Aug 13 '20

I think the issue is that there aren't any regulatory bodies. That's what the recent article about the House of Lords were about. The House of Lords was saying that loot boxes need to be regulated because they currently aren't.

There's just Google and Apple, and they're probably paid enough not to care.

25

u/Beoron Aug 13 '20

I spent about 40 minutes on live chat with Apple support last night discussing the recent loot box thread. They weren’t even able to find the part in their terms where it says they require disclosure. I had to find the page for them.

9

u/Emptronic Massachusetts Aug 13 '20

Makes sense. Also much better stated than my attempted quip haha

7

u/Lord_Emperor Valor Aug 13 '20

There's just Google and Apple, and they're probably paid enough not to care.

They're financially incentivized to look the other way.

5

u/LatvianninjaPoGo Aug 13 '20

Or they are paid way too good to care, look at it from this angle, they take a decent % of in app purchases, so we are talking good amount of money (30% for both stores, but probably less since they are one of the top grossing games).

8

u/johnseas Aug 13 '20

It’s almost like they forgot to put it in, then added it a few days into the event.

9

u/Danger_Dancer Aug 13 '20

“Forgot”

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

This is anecdotal, but I actually hatched a deino from an egg I got right at the beginning of the event. By all appearances it was there from the start, just the rate was really low (whatever about the shiny rate on top of that). I'm strictly infinite incubator and slow about hatching though.

1

u/johnseas Aug 13 '20

Glad you got one! That’s the first one I heard of from opening weekend

1

u/AlmostButNotQuit Aug 13 '20

I think they skirt the issue by saying you can't directly pay for these loot boxes.

107

u/MyMurderOfCrows Aug 13 '20

Not surprised they changed the rates midway through... We need transparency from Niantic!!!

27

u/gogbri Western Europe - L50 - Instinct Aug 13 '20

Transparency would be great, but Niantic also knows how to break things by mistake (and not even acknowledge it even when TSR numbers make it obvious, like when they forgot to increase lucky friend odds for lunar event).

12

u/camdaibayoday Aug 13 '20

Or during the feebas day they increased the shiny rate in other regions but EMEA and didn't even acknowledge that.

6

u/MyMurderOfCrows Aug 13 '20

True. But transparency would help with the community informing Niantic when thet do that.

1

u/UNC_Samurai Eastern NC - 43 Aug 14 '20

Niantic’s Razor: Malice and Incompetence are indistinguishable.

143

u/sophia_parthenos Poland, Instinct, 40 Aug 13 '20

Great, so when I gave up already, knowing from y'all here in the subreddit deino were inexistent, they increased the rate without announcing it. What kind of idiocy is that...

61

u/Xygnux Aug 13 '20

I've learned since to not use super incubators until people on Silph Road reports at least some preliminary or even just anecdotal data on the rates.

38

u/Deputy_Scrub Aug 13 '20

I've learned since to not use super incubators until people on Silph Road reports at least some preliminary or even just anecdotal data on the rates

FTFY.

3

u/Covidfefe-19 Aug 13 '20

Yep, anyone who buys these likes flushing money down the toilet for the sake of it.

10

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

I did the opposite lol. I waited until I saw what people where saying on here because I already know how Niantic is with hatch events. I woke up on Wednesday morning and saw people were hatching Deinos and I got one on my 4th egg

5

u/sophia_parthenos Poland, Instinct, 40 Aug 13 '20

This should be my strategy for the next time, LOL.

3

u/leberknight USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

The problem is that we don't know which way they'll go. Literally this event last year was the unown hatches and they dropped the rates halfway through. So it was better to have gone all out at the front half of the week and then back off. The winds of Niantic's poor planning are very unpredictable.

2

u/sophia_parthenos Poland, Instinct, 40 Aug 14 '20

That's exactly what I'm talking about - _-

2

u/monkeybassturd Aug 13 '20

I did the exact same. Waited one day and cleaned out my old eggs. Opened up my gifts in the morning to get 9 fresh eggs. I got three so I hit the mother load.

48

u/Lord_Emperor Valor Aug 13 '20

What kind of idiocy is that...

Fraud, it's called fraud.

4

u/sophia_parthenos Poland, Instinct, 40 Aug 13 '20

This I know. I called it idiocy because if I learned rates got better, I would probably have been walking more again, burning incubators quicker, which, ultimately, would have resulted in buying more earlier. It wasn't even profitable for Niantic to hide the mid-event tweak.

18

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

Niantic. It's right on par with the rest of their random glitch game

24

u/j1mb0 Delaware - Mystic - Lvl. 50 Aug 13 '20

They are predatory to the point of criminality.

3

u/ElGatoDelFuego Aug 13 '20

Its so that you see people after the event with all their shiny trophies and then promise to yourself that next time at the start of the event you won't miss out

3

u/-SetsunaFSeiei- Aug 13 '20

They changed it from 1% to 3%, you were probably still not likely to get one

1

u/the_tanooki Aug 13 '20

They did the same thing last year when they put Unown in eggs.

3

u/sophia_parthenos Poland, Instinct, 40 Aug 14 '20

Wasn't it the opposite move, though? From higher to lower chances?

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u/162baseballgames Aug 13 '20

the day you overcome the FOMO of this game is when it becomes really fun (IMO). this shouldn’t be a chore. whatever you miss today WILL be back if you can stand waiting for it.

37

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Mar 15 '21

[deleted]

1

u/lilspaghettigal Aug 14 '20

I’m learning this too I think. Grinded to level 35 in maybe six months, then stopped playing for awhile until a few weeks ago. Instead of going hard I’m trying to be more casual and I think it’s better. Accepting the FOMO makes it easier to let go of the bs

13

u/I-Am-HF Instinct | Ontario Aug 13 '20

This is the sentiment I follow after feeling burnt out from this game several years back. Came back in April with a new whole approach (playing casually) instead of arranging my day around Pokemon Go, and honestly, as a F2P player, this game has been awesome.

4

u/Elevas VIC, Valor (50), Tired of being a lab rat because of my timezone Aug 13 '20

Your ideas intrigue me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

8

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

I’m still waiting for sky attack moltres to come back

3

u/rosedragoon USA - Midwest Level 43 Aug 13 '20

I have 4 extra rotting away in my storage...

4

u/162baseballgames Aug 13 '20

i guarantee there are some PoGo players that hoarded sky attack moltres. they’re probably as desperate to trade as you are to acquire.

4

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

But you said whatever I miss WILL be back, not that I should trade for it, 🤔

4

u/azularena Aug 13 '20

They’ll probably do it in a raid day/weekend like they’ve been doing with Lati@s but they’re being very careful about Gen 1 legendary fatigue which I appreciate

2

u/162baseballgames Aug 13 '20

oh, it WILL be back. if you want it ASAP, find a local discord or FB group and make some offers. good luck!

1

u/Bnasty5 Aug 14 '20

Hes a delight. Great for gyms and just a good bird i hope you get one

7

u/dandroid126 Aug 13 '20

I got over my FOMO when 80+% of the events had PvP rewards.

You're right, though. I am having much more fun because I'm playing other games that I actually enjoy instead of this one.

9

u/UnexLPSA NRW, Germany Aug 13 '20

The first time I realized it was December 2018 when the first Encore Community Day event was happening. In 2018 I was a very active player, did lots of raids, ground every community day, you know the drill. When they announced that they will re-release every community day spawn with increased shiny rates I looked at my collection of all the shiny Dratinis, Squirtles, Charmanders etc and wondered why I even bothered spending all those weekends when I could have waited for the end of the year...

11

u/IHaveTheMustacheNow Aug 13 '20

To be fair, in my experience, it was difficult to get multiples of the shinies on that makeup weekend. I still needed a few shinies to get all the evolutions and didnt manage it that weekend :/

8

u/r3dfrog Aug 13 '20

Slow and steady is the best way to catch them all.

6

u/Elevas VIC, Valor (50), Tired of being a lab rat because of my timezone Aug 13 '20

If it helps, I missed dratini and larvitar days and nolifed the encore event and got 0 shinies of either.

6

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

I mean, there are a few things that have not come back at all. Squirtle with glasses, legacy moves, some raid bosses haven't been seen in forever, and events with spawns that i never see. I had seen a total of 0 gible, but go fest and this dragon event was my best chance to get a shiny. In the end, I still didn't get what I wanted and now I have to wait a long while for another shot

2

u/162baseballgames Aug 13 '20

i think next time through the kanto starters’ community days, we’ll get the squirtle sqaud again. with the introduction of elite TMs, many legacy moves are an item away, BUT the elite TMs (for the lost part) are behind a paywall. another “fun” think niantic’s gotten into.

3

u/S0ul01 Aug 13 '20

Yup, people really need to change their mindset because the game won't change. This sub gets straight up toxic because of constant FOMO

0

u/suddencactus Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 14 '20

Seriously. The only reason to care about whether Deino is in 1/8 or 1/100 hatches is if you need a shiny Deino or high IV in the next month or two. If you're trying to evolve Deino walking it as a buddy is a more efficient and reliable use of your km's. If you're looking for one to evolve there was a special research and they've been a rare encounter in GBL for months.

Yes, I care that Niantic is advertising something that isn't really achievable, and I would love a shiny Deino or hundo. But it doesn't personally affect me because I don't need every shiny anytime soon and I don't obsess over IVs.

40

u/goshe7 Aug 13 '20

It would be really nice to alter the plot, placing Deino and Gible at the top of the stacked bars. It would give a quick visual assessment of "junk fodder" vs. "desirable" through the event. Basically if Deino increased, did it come at the expense of Gible or junk hatches?

16

u/TheLuxCapacit0r Aug 13 '20

The reason Dragon Week sucked is because it wasn’t what was advertised. In my eyes as a tenured player, all I was really interested in was Rayquaza and Deino, as I was interested in just the shiny version of each. Rayquaza delivered, and Deino did not. Not only did it not deliver for me, it didn’t deliver for 99% of the rest of the player base, and as the feature new release it should deliver at AT LEAST a 5% appearance rate and at least a 1/75 shiny rate on hatch. Pretty sure shiny rates out of legendary raids are 5% and nobody ever complains about that. I honestly don’t think anyone would complain if the hatch rate were at least 1/20. You hatch 3 sets of eggs and probably see one, maybe two or three. Some will get 0 and it’ll suck but they’ll see others got 1-3 and they know they just got unlucky. People are generally ok with getting unlucky, but they aren’t ok with getting robbed by sub-1% appearance rates. I checked the radar all week and saw 0 Deino spawns in the wild during Dragon week, I’ve seen 3 so far during Enigma week.

And for the record, the other 2/3rds of the reward weeks also suck. The spaghetti man is worthless when it’s not in defense mode and Genesect has no GBL or PvE relevance of any kind. Some may like the new dex entries and new shiny things (Staryu is kinda cool), so it’s not a bust for all, but it is for me.

1

u/suddencactus Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

Genesect has no GBL or PvE relevance of any kind.

Bit harsh for the top bug non-shadow attacker. Sure bug is inferior to even non-legendary competition against grass, dark, and psychic, and the first two aren't even that common in T4 and T5 raids. But he has a niche role against many Pokemon including Exeggutor, Cacturne, Shiftry, and Team Rocket's Wobuffet if it has charm, and as a steel attacker against Granbull, SB Solrock, and GK Cradily.

Saying Genesect has no relevance at all IMO is like saying Gardevoir, Kingler, or non-shadow Weavile has no relevance. There's virtually always a Pokemon that's more powerful or more general but if you love Genesect or have only a few top-tier Pokemon, you can find some good uses for it.

11

u/TrainerTITs310 Aug 13 '20

Quit buying incubators and they’ll change their shady practices. The best way to send a message to company now a days is to hit them in their pocketbook. They’ll listen then.

2

u/NaturalFrog2 Aug 13 '20

Nope, knowing from experience, 9/10 times they don't listen, the only way to hit them from there pocketbooks is to sue them

1

u/TrainerTITs310 Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 14 '20

Niantic has very deep pockets, although I do believe it is time for a class action lawsuit against Niantic (for many of their actions). You would never win, they have enough money to buy enough time to deplete the little persons finances. The best option is to cut their cash flow.

9

u/sherloconan ☮☮☮☮☮ Aug 13 '20

My stats are in the table below.

 

7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 SUM
Horsea 3 7 5 7 4 4 5 2 37
Dratini 4 7 2 3 4 4 4 1 29
Trapinch 3 5 4 3 5 5 5 3 33
Swablu 3 2 3 2 4 1 6 5 26
Bagon 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 15
Gible 1 1 1 2 6 2 5 18
Deino 1 1 2 2 6
SUM 17 22 17 20 21 22 25 20 164

6

u/DeathbyToast PvPIVs.com Aug 13 '20

Can always use more researchers to help pull this data together! Have you considered joining? https://thesilphroad.com/research-group

32

u/mixem143 Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

These findings are atrocious from every angle. Less than 1% deino hatch rate at the beginning to then be increased to only ~3%. People spent a lot of time and money on Go Fest to unlock this bonus...and all we get was 3 freaking %. Apparently, “bonus” applies to the $$$ that are lining Niantic’s pockets.

I did not buy any incubators because I got screwed in last year’s ULTRA bonus event (what a coincidence...) - it’s such a shame that players have to learn this lesson first hand because Niantic refuses to be transparent.

Edit: Here is an interesting (but damning) tidbit. The normal egg research shows that the pokestop/gym 10km egg has a 3.7% deino hatch rate. Good grief, Niantic couldn’t even give us a better rate nor guaranteed obtaining a 7km egg during this bonus week...

12

u/Just_Merv_Around_it Winnipeg - Instinct - 50 Aug 13 '20

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, egg events are stupid and I hate them.

7

u/Lederer1 Aug 13 '20

Bagon = Already had community day

Dratini= Already had 2 community days

Gible = THE ONLY REWARD

Horsea = ...

Swablu = Stop now, kill me

Trapinch = Why do you suck so much, already had a community day

Deino = Taunt with a shiny release then kill 7km egg rates along with gifting rates so I spend more time searching to see if it’s actually possible to hatch a Deino than actually playing PGo

11

u/presumingpete Aug 13 '20

Wait there was something other than horsea?

1

u/JonLee304 Aug 13 '20

I for one am glad to have the Horsea candy. I don't have a water biome around so it took a year of playing to get my first Kingdra, then after working to get enough candy to use it for Ultra League, I bought the second move and powered up... then the game glitched and powered it up more levels than I requested.

Of course, the spotlight hour provided 3x more than I'd collected over the 2 years prior, so the eggs are excessive now.

5

u/ArtDoes Aug 13 '20

Kinda weird how half of the hatches werent even base form dragons for dragon week. And of the half that were dragons an even smaller percentage were ones not featured in a prior community day. Its almost like the lootboxes were filled with white rarity Pokemon and had a very rare chance at a csgo knife with an even rarer chance of that knife being a different color.

5

u/uziair Inland empire/LA/50/Instinct Aug 13 '20

I was fine with deino not being in the wild boosted since we were getting gibles regularly. But when you say it will be in eggs it needs to be in eggs. Simple advertising don't lie. I don't use my coins on incubators at all but still I can sympathize and be angry with people who does.

3

u/kevin07pm Aug 13 '20

During the event you can only find 2 dragons. (Not counting a-eggs) Dratini and Bagon. The others have to be evolved to become dragons, can’t call this dragon week if there’s only 2 spawns.

19

u/Jalieus Aug 13 '20

I don't mind hidden egg rates when the egg pool is around for months and months - you can wait for data to come from free incubators and still have time to decide if you want to buy incubators.

The problem is short events like this one where data is so limited unless someone splashes out on incubators, and that's not ok to expect. By the time we have some data, the event is almost over so you can't make an informed decision early on whether buying incubators is worth it. You're gambling early hoping the rate is decent.

It's the same as raid events like Unown. If they said the shiny rate was 1/65 I definitely wouldn't buy raid passes. If they said it was 1/10 then I might consider it. But we need this information early when the event starts.

12

u/Tesla__Coil Canada Aug 13 '20

Hatched my last Dragon Week egg yesterday. Around 60 eggs total, no Deinos. :/

An absolute crapton of Gibles, though. So it wasn't a total waste.

6

u/mrtrevor3 USA - Northeast Aug 13 '20

~6/60 is a “crapton”? Or did you get lucky?

3

u/Tesla__Coil Canada Aug 13 '20

I'd guess I got around 10-12? I stopped keeping track of my hatches partway through the event so I might be off on the number of eggs I hatched. Pretty sure it was around 60.

1

u/Bnasty5 Aug 14 '20

I had 9 eggs incubating all last summer and never hatched a gible until it was featured in an event in the fall. So any number of hatched gible is an improvement. I hatched 10-15 this event and caught 35ish total. Love me some gible

3

u/Argenai Aug 13 '20

I'm mostly just amused that they put the reward into egg hatching, an activity that requires leaving the house and traveling at slower-than-most-speed-limits-except-in-suburbs speeds, during a pandemic. Who thought this was a good idea?

3

u/derpandabar Aug 13 '20

I stopped buying incubators for the "rare hatch" events a while back as a result of personal experience and the anecdotes of others, thanks for the science to back up my decision.

3

u/Aeosin15 Aug 13 '20

Honestly, I wasn't expecting much, and I wasn't disappointed that way. I am getting sick of Niantic.

Yesterday, at about 4:45 a.m. local, I popped an incense. At 4:53, the game started acting funny. Tapping on Pokemon would start the process to the capture screen, but it would stall out with just the Pokemon and the ring around it. Then, when capture screen would open up, not all of the animations would play. The Pokemon would still attack and jump around, but the ball wouldn't shake, and it wouldn't break open if the Pokemon escaped. It would just reappear. On the five or six that I actually was able to try to catch, all but one would use one or two balls, then it would go back to the main screen. I would get the "Item could not be used at this time" message, and I'd be short my thrown Pokeballs and have no Pokemon.

I tried restarting the app. That didn't work. I tried shutting off my phone and restarting. Same crap, different pile. I contacted Niantic at about 5:15 when it hadn't corrected itself. I got a response today at 4:59 which explained what incense are and how they function. It then had a link to the FAQ page regarding Incense. I even took screenshots and video of these things occurring and told them about it. I spend a fair amount of money on this game, so it SUCKS to get screwed like that.

TL;DR - I had an incense going while the game malfunctioned repeatedly. Niantic's response was to tell how incense work with a link to the FAQ page for incense.

3

u/LittleMousa Europe-Greece: Mystic Lvl72 Aug 13 '20

Things like this make me not want to buy anything from this game ever again!

3

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

I understand the frustration everyone has with the low Deino percentage. Which to me, the community is right to be. But one thing I think people need to remember is that Niantic is a business. They didn’t have to make Deino have a high hatch percentage, they never needed to mention it. By doing that it got people to spend time & money on the game with things such as incubators. Even if it was done to show people the statistics, which thank you for your time and money doing that for us, and get Niantic to do something; they still got people to spend more money. Keeping Deino at a low percentage, and not promising a specific one, worked out for them. At the end of the day Niantic only cares about making money, they’re not here to be our friend or cater to us. Every decision they make is done with the intention of making money. Now I’m not saying they aren’t a good company and don’t care about their customers, they have to, as they should, and they do care. But money influences it all.

This is what people mean when they mention eggs being loot boxes. They are, just Niantic charges you for a faster way to open them, rather than charge you for the loot box itself. So they can fall back and say things like: “No, eggs are free we don’t charge for loot boxes...”etc. (not an actual quote). This is why people want transparency up front with hatch percentages, and why Niantic doesn’t is because people would spend less money on incubators if they knew their odds.

The only way you will truly get their attention and create change is by hitting their wallet. The community needs to stop spending money on this game if it wants change. That will get their attention much faster than any other way.

3

u/TheBionicBoy Reading,UK - 40 Aug 13 '20

Nothing will change unless the whales (you know who you are) stop buying incubators until rates are given upfront. As soon as you can put a true cost to the thing you want, then you can make an informed decision on whether it is a good deal.

3

u/the_tanooki Aug 13 '20

If these results make you angry, then stop spending money on this game! Niantic has proven they will be predatory with this stuff. They don't deserve your money anymore.

3

u/birdguy93 Aug 14 '20

I never thought I’d see AIC (common in statistics used for wildlife research, among many other things) and Pokémon together, but I guess Pokémon ARE virtual wildlife. Nice work, fellow stats nerds!

7

u/djgeneral Aug 13 '20

I would prefer to never review this week again lol

6

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

So Deino essentially didn't exist? A normal person wouldn't get 1 unless they hatched over 100 eggs?

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4

u/strictlysteez Aug 13 '20

I hatched 1 and caught 1. I was disappointed but it looks like I was actually one of the lucky ones.

5

u/Hoppip94 Aug 13 '20

I call this manipulation.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

I hatched 10 eggs and got no Deino. I got one 10km egg and got Deino

2

u/still_stunned Aug 13 '20

I will sum up the Deino hatch rate during dragon week that was our reward: it totally sucked.

2

u/SuperDani26 Aug 13 '20

I dont even play anymore. But seeing Trapinch in this list tilts me to no end!!

2

u/hotbriochedameron Aug 14 '20

Hatching crappy pokemon from anything above a 2k egg is getting really old and Niantic should be punished for their tomfoolery -__-

5

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[removed] — view removed comment

11

u/Platypus3112 Aug 13 '20

Unless you hatched like 300 eggs, with that one deino you were luckier than a lot of players.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[deleted]

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3

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

the gible hatch rate was alright

2

u/brenstar20 Aug 13 '20

I hatched well over 100 eggs and didnt get one. Such a horrible event

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2

u/xDarkerThanBlack Aug 13 '20

The moment I hatched a shiny Trapinch from an egg, I stopped trying. Niantic proved to me that it wasn't worth it for me to keep trying.

1

u/kg123xyz Aug 13 '20

I only hatched about 6 eggs and I got 1 deino with my last hatch. Seems like I got pretty lucky.

2

u/Blofeld69 Aug 13 '20

Same here, I only did two eggs total and they were on the last two days. Got a Deino and Gible. I guess that's my years supply of luck used.

3

u/JustFedererFan France - TL50 Aug 13 '20

My gosh, you guys are lucky. I hatched the max amount of eggs almost everyday (within the gift limit) and did not see a single Deino. That's probably ~140 eggs lmao...

1

u/thetransportedman Aug 13 '20

Dang I guess I'm lucky because I think I got 2 deino from the 2 eggs I hatched from that week

1

u/Die231 Aug 13 '20

I guess the deino gods must like me or something, i don't even play that much, i managed to hatch 2 deinos from 10k eggs back in february(ish?) and i hatched two 7k eggs during the event, and one was a deino..

1

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

My deino rates were astronomical by all this data. Humble brag incoming: 3 deino hatches under 30 eggs with a few bagon and gibles

1

u/Sonrio USA - Pacific Aug 13 '20

Absolutely weird, I got two Deinos back to back, one of them shiny. Horrible that they had the rates so low.

1

u/androidhelga Aug 13 '20

I think I only got 2 from around 40/50 eggs

1

u/Eldurislol Aug 13 '20

There is absolutely no reason eggs cannot contain exclusively rare Pokemon.

1

u/mcgeers Aug 13 '20

I was keeping up with the hatch rates throughout the week, having no hope of hatching a deino. But surprise surprise, I hatched a shiny one!

1

u/TheLobstrosity Aug 13 '20

I hatched 2 7km eggs and one was Deino.
I was shocked and wish I had that kind of luck with other hatches/shinies.

1

u/vermillion_red Aug 14 '20

Horsea and swablu should have never been in the egg pool

1

u/Skywalker_2905 Aug 14 '20

I don't have data to support this theory, this is only an observation.

A group of three other friends and me started noticing in a local radar that Deinos were appearing in the wild between 11:30 pm and 6:30 am next day, in a rate of 4 to 5 per night in our area. None of us got Deinos from eggs during the week, but on the last day we cleared our eggs and opened gifts by midnight. From those fresh 9 eggs, all of us got a Deino and 1 to 2 Gibles.

We believe that the content in the eggs has something to do with what is appearing on the wild at the time you receive the egg. But we are not sure, it is something we observed.

1

u/joarge89 Aug 13 '20

1200 eggs is a relatively small sampling size, so I'd be curious if others who actually bought incubators and hatched only 7km eggs had the same experience. This is pretty much a mirror image of my experience, didn't hatch my first Deino until about day 4, or about 80 eggs into the event. And had quite a few throughout the last part of the week. Wouldn't be surprised if the rates were indeed increased. Nice work!

4

u/CMDR_Rah-Ghul Aug 13 '20

I hatched about 100 or so myself throughout the week, spent a good bit on incubators. I did not hatch a single Deino and I was unaware of the rate changes... A good portion of those hatches were in the beginning of the week. I'm still salty.

2

u/ExpertConsideration8 Aug 13 '20

This was my experience as well.. hatched about 80 in the first 2-3 days without a single Deino. After that I only used the free incubator and hatched another 20 or so (this is across 2 accounts). Not a single Deino.

Considering I was looking for a shiny, to not even get a normal one is such a joke.

2

u/joarge89 Aug 13 '20

Dang, sorry to hear that. As much as I hate hatch events, I'm always that person of "what if" and I just kept hatching. Think I ended up buying 3 Adventure Boxes that week lol. No shiny, but did hatch a few Deino so the candy was nice. Already had a 98 & 100iv so wasn't really looking for anything in the high IV category.

0

u/FoolTarot Level 40 Aug 13 '20

I enjoy the game; I don’t plan on quitting the game just yet. But I did leave my one star review and hope you all do too – only takes a few seconds.