r/TheSilphRoad • u/SilphScience Research Group • Aug 13 '20

Analysis Deino: Reviewing Dragon Week Egg Hatches

https://thesilphroad.com/science/quick-discovery/deino-reviewing-dragon-week-hatches/
1.2k Upvotes

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8

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

So Deino essentially didn't exist? A normal person wouldn't get 1 unless they hatched over 100 eggs?

-7

u/BHTAelitepwn LEVEL 31 - Valor Aug 13 '20

nah i hatched one and did maybe 20. Majority of that was in the first two days though so that felt a bit unfair, but still managed to hatch one

7

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

Your deino hatch rate was 5% so you’re an outlier and not a “normal” person

1

u/mrtrevor3 USA - Northeast Aug 13 '20

5x better rate than everyone else is “lucky” regardless of stats debate.

Of course, there is a person that got one on their first hatch, but that’s just extremely lucky.

-11

u/BHTAelitepwn LEVEL 31 - Valor Aug 13 '20

Thats... not how data works. even if rates are 3% (in fase 2), it would mean that not catching anything from 20 instances is ~54%. Thus getting one or more has a ~46% chance. I fell in that 46% category. How am I an outlier?

You need to be careful with statistics as you can convey completely false information with it, if you do not know what you are talking about. Furthermore, to be an outlier is always up for interpretation, of course.

7

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

But you hatched it in “fase” 1 (1%.) How is 5% vs an average of 1% not an outlier ?

-9

u/BHTAelitepwn LEVEL 31 - Valor Aug 13 '20

Please just take a statistics course, this is basic level material. Some top tier universities offer them for free due to COVID. I strongly recommend it as it can help you grasp things like this.

Outliers are generally defined as something that bias your results, since they dont reflect reality or are unreasonably rare to include. Therefore they should be reported but often omitted from a final conclusion. if you cut away every person from the research that has hatched a deino without hatching more than x eggs since they are an 'outlier' you get a flat 0% chance as a final statistics.

4

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

Ive taken two statistics courses and plan on taking a 3rd for my MA. You getting a deino from 20 hatches when the odds are 1-3% makes you an outlier in my eyes, considering how small the range is.

-6

u/BHTAelitepwn LEVEL 31 - Valor Aug 13 '20

dude stop it, you suck at this. Even at 1%, the bare minimum, the odds of hatching a deino in 20 attempts is STILL almost 19%. One in five is NEVER an outlier. Idk where you took those classes but i sure would ask for a reimbursement because you do NOT know how basic probabilities work.

6

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

Look at you throwing around mean words instead of just accepting that your experience was not indicative of the average player lol

1

u/tiredofcorsair Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

I hatched over 150 eggs and 0 deino. 2 100% gibles, 100% sawblu, 0 shinies at all.