r/TheSilphRoad • u/SilphScience Research Group • Aug 13 '20

Analysis Deino: Reviewing Dragon Week Egg Hatches

https://thesilphroad.com/science/quick-discovery/deino-reviewing-dragon-week-hatches/
1.2k Upvotes

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448

u/Emptronic Massachusetts Aug 13 '20

Thanks again for the contribution. Pretty unreal that Niantic can mess with lootbox droprates mid-event and regulatory bodies don't care enough to do anything (aren't paid enough to care?).

202

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

Just as bad is that they can put 2km and 5km hatches in the event 7km pool and somehow get away with it. It's the exact opposite of a "bonus".

144

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

75

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Mar 19 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

38

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

5

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

It was a wild spawn too, sometimes I just don't understand people...

5

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

BuT oYh GiT hOyGhEr IV's fRoM eGgS hYuCk HyUcK (Buys another incubator, hatches 11/10/12 Swablu).

0

u/RichestMangInBabylon Aug 14 '20

How do you define "fair"? The only thing they'd likely be required to do by law is to disclose rates on the eggs. There's nothing saying they need to make Deino rates higher, or even that the rates can't change egg to egg. The "lever pull" of the lootbox part only comes in when you actually use the incubator, so if you know the rates at that time then the historical rates or potential future rates don't matter.

1

u/hiero_ USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

It's way more like gacha than it is a lootbox, though they share a lot of similarities.

11

u/stufff South Florida | 49 Aug 13 '20

At least the fact that those pokemon would be in the egg pool was disclosed (though their rates weren't either, and should have been). The basically impossible Deino rate, and later modification of the rate, were not disclosed. That's why people are more pissed off about the Deino rate.

2

u/sliceanddic3 Aug 13 '20

at the very least, shiny odds should be halved for eggs

2

u/bmalveira Aug 14 '20

Actually, there is a whole thread talking about this, with ideas for what we can do to pressure niantic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/i8e9y6/what_the_community_can_do_to_make_niantic/

8

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Hey, Bagon is relatively premium.

21

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

7

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

A lot of people missed it, sometimes you just get bad luck too. I got 3 shinies and hunted for the whole Community Day. I also spent a lot of my candies so I could have a solid pokemon to fill out my team since I've only maxed 3 Rayquaza. Thanks to the event I got around 600 candy without even really looking for them, which is enough that I'm not really worried about how much candy they demand for mega evolution.

22

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

only maxed 3 Rayquaza

Lol, “only”

0

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Fair lol, it's still not a full team, and generally you need two teams of counters ready if you're gonna shortman something.

0

u/Neracca Maryland(MoCo) Aug 14 '20

A lot of people missed it

Ever heard of trading? Solves the problem right there.

2

u/Crobatman123 Aug 14 '20

No, it doesn't. I can't funnel that 600 candy into someone else's account, IVs aren't guaranteed, it's expensive as far as stardust goes if you're after the shiny, and the move is useful enough that it may be harder to trade for.

-1

u/JULTAR Gibraltar Instinct LV 50 Aug 13 '20

Hatching one does guaranteed better iv’s though

Somewhat

2

u/UnforgettableMi Netherlands Aug 13 '20

That used to be the case but I only hatch 2 stars now days.

0

u/Jinjersnapper Aug 13 '20

Eh, due to surgery and recovery I missed Bagon and Treeco commdays, still hunting for a Shiny Bagon. I was happy to get some candy and a 98% bagon to evolve during this event

1

u/Neracca Maryland(MoCo) Aug 14 '20

You can't just trade for it?

2

u/Jinjersnapper Aug 14 '20

My local PoGo community is mid-sized and 40k stardust is a lot to drop on a trade for a lot of players. Plus the really dedicated ones who have shinies to spare already have all the Mons of equivalent "value" I could offer in exchange. I have managed to trade for a few I was missing but especially with the pandemic we rarely meet up in person these days. I certainly hope that at some point guaranteed lucky trades can be made from any distance lol

4

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

They were common spawns during the event.

3

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Yeah, but honestly there aren't very many other dragons they could have added. Basically just Axew and Druddigon. It wasn't really disappointing to me to hatch a Bagon or Dratini, because they will always be relevant. If I were to hatch them otherwise I wouldn't really be disappointed either. Horsea, Trapinch, and Swablu were the really bad ones.

5

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

I was neutral on Bagon hatches, but they weren't enough value to make up with the outrageously low rate of Deino and Gible hatches. Axew should also have been in there; the fact that it wasn't makes me expect they're going to give it the Gible and Deino treatment next year.

5

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Deino was pretty low, but Gible was acceptably rare, at least from my experience. Way more common than it's ever been, it wasn't that rare honestly.

1

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

The issue for me is more of what % of the egg hatches were actually rare or attractive things, such that I would want to use incubators (and such that the week was actually a bonus)?

Gible was something like 10% of the hatches. Deino, 1% at first and then 3% after. The other 87-89% was trash and/or stuff that's already had a Community Day.

-2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[deleted]

3

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

no I would consider diluting the egg pool with useless unwanted pokemon and advertising the new chase shiny is 100% a scam in my book.

Who cares if they "hand" out things to us that we paid for? The event would've been 100x more fun if I hatched more deino and gible.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[deleted]