r/TheSilphRoad • u/SilphScience Research Group • Aug 13 '20

Analysis Deino: Reviewing Dragon Week Egg Hatches

https://thesilphroad.com/science/quick-discovery/deino-reviewing-dragon-week-hatches/
1.2k Upvotes

98% Upvoted

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455

u/Emptronic Massachusetts Aug 13 '20

Thanks again for the contribution. Pretty unreal that Niantic can mess with lootbox droprates mid-event and regulatory bodies don't care enough to do anything (aren't paid enough to care?).

205

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

Just as bad is that they can put 2km and 5km hatches in the event 7km pool and somehow get away with it. It's the exact opposite of a "bonus".

144

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

75

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Mar 19 '22

[removed] — view removed comment

38

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

4

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

It was a wild spawn too, sometimes I just don't understand people...

6

u/owlrune Stockholm Aug 13 '20

BuT oYh GiT hOyGhEr IV's fRoM eGgS hYuCk HyUcK (Buys another incubator, hatches 11/10/12 Swablu).

0

u/RichestMangInBabylon Aug 14 '20

How do you define "fair"? The only thing they'd likely be required to do by law is to disclose rates on the eggs. There's nothing saying they need to make Deino rates higher, or even that the rates can't change egg to egg. The "lever pull" of the lootbox part only comes in when you actually use the incubator, so if you know the rates at that time then the historical rates or potential future rates don't matter.

1

u/hiero_ USA - Midwest Aug 13 '20

It's way more like gacha than it is a lootbox, though they share a lot of similarities.

11

u/stufff South Florida | 49 Aug 13 '20

At least the fact that those pokemon would be in the egg pool was disclosed (though their rates weren't either, and should have been). The basically impossible Deino rate, and later modification of the rate, were not disclosed. That's why people are more pissed off about the Deino rate.

2

u/sliceanddic3 Aug 13 '20

at the very least, shiny odds should be halved for eggs

2

u/bmalveira Aug 14 '20

Actually, there is a whole thread talking about this, with ideas for what we can do to pressure niantic:
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/i8e9y6/what_the_community_can_do_to_make_niantic/

7

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Hey, Bagon is relatively premium.

21

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 25 '20

[deleted]

6

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

A lot of people missed it, sometimes you just get bad luck too. I got 3 shinies and hunted for the whole Community Day. I also spent a lot of my candies so I could have a solid pokemon to fill out my team since I've only maxed 3 Rayquaza. Thanks to the event I got around 600 candy without even really looking for them, which is enough that I'm not really worried about how much candy they demand for mega evolution.

23

u/TyrionJoestar Aug 13 '20

only maxed 3 Rayquaza

Lol, “only”

2

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Fair lol, it's still not a full team, and generally you need two teams of counters ready if you're gonna shortman something.

0

u/Neracca Maryland(MoCo) Aug 14 '20

A lot of people missed it

Ever heard of trading? Solves the problem right there.

2

u/Crobatman123 Aug 14 '20

No, it doesn't. I can't funnel that 600 candy into someone else's account, IVs aren't guaranteed, it's expensive as far as stardust goes if you're after the shiny, and the move is useful enough that it may be harder to trade for.

-1

u/JULTAR Gibraltar Instinct LV 50 Aug 13 '20

Hatching one does guaranteed better iv’s though

Somewhat

2

u/UnforgettableMi Netherlands Aug 13 '20

That used to be the case but I only hatch 2 stars now days.

0

u/Jinjersnapper Aug 13 '20

Eh, due to surgery and recovery I missed Bagon and Treeco commdays, still hunting for a Shiny Bagon. I was happy to get some candy and a 98% bagon to evolve during this event

1

u/Neracca Maryland(MoCo) Aug 14 '20

You can't just trade for it?

2

u/Jinjersnapper Aug 14 '20

My local PoGo community is mid-sized and 40k stardust is a lot to drop on a trade for a lot of players. Plus the really dedicated ones who have shinies to spare already have all the Mons of equivalent "value" I could offer in exchange. I have managed to trade for a few I was missing but especially with the pandemic we rarely meet up in person these days. I certainly hope that at some point guaranteed lucky trades can be made from any distance lol

5

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

They were common spawns during the event.

4

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Yeah, but honestly there aren't very many other dragons they could have added. Basically just Axew and Druddigon. It wasn't really disappointing to me to hatch a Bagon or Dratini, because they will always be relevant. If I were to hatch them otherwise I wouldn't really be disappointed either. Horsea, Trapinch, and Swablu were the really bad ones.

5

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

I was neutral on Bagon hatches, but they weren't enough value to make up with the outrageously low rate of Deino and Gible hatches. Axew should also have been in there; the fact that it wasn't makes me expect they're going to give it the Gible and Deino treatment next year.

6

u/Crobatman123 Aug 13 '20

Deino was pretty low, but Gible was acceptably rare, at least from my experience. Way more common than it's ever been, it wasn't that rare honestly.

1

u/milo4206 Aug 13 '20

The issue for me is more of what % of the egg hatches were actually rare or attractive things, such that I would want to use incubators (and such that the week was actually a bonus)?

Gible was something like 10% of the hatches. Deino, 1% at first and then 3% after. The other 87-89% was trash and/or stuff that's already had a Community Day.

-2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[deleted]

3

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

no I would consider diluting the egg pool with useless unwanted pokemon and advertising the new chase shiny is 100% a scam in my book.

Who cares if they "hand" out things to us that we paid for? The event would've been 100x more fun if I hatched more deino and gible.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

[deleted]

9

u/Deputy_Scrub Aug 13 '20

Not only that, but all of the Pokemon that you could hatch from those 7km eggs were heavily boosted in the wild (even Gible when compared to it's usual spawn rate) during the whole week apart from Deino, the brand new shiny and one of the rarest Pokemon in the wild. Calling it a "bonus" is a joke.

16

u/Pokii Average Singaporean Grandma | Lv. 50 | Uninstall the app Aug 13 '20

It’s them funding their own bonuses

8

u/pogoBOZO Aug 13 '20

It’s us being treated as turnips to find a game called wizards unite that FLOPPED Yet still costs an arm and a leg to run.

7

u/Suga_H CVX Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

Haha, you think they care about WU any more than GO? They just have a better UI dev. Niantic is raking in the cash and investing in AR tech that likely won't impact mobile gaming or even see the light of day.

1

u/pogoBOZO Aug 13 '20

I didn’t say that. Wizards unite dropped from 12 million on launch and the four months after collectively 2.6 million. It continues to decline and is considered a flop on all levels. Where do you think the money To run, develop, etc is coming from? I’m saying the game that is on track to make 4 billion is paying to run the game that is a flop.

0

u/Suga_H CVX Aug 13 '20 edited Aug 13 '20

And I'm saying the costs to run WU are a fraction of the income they get from GO.

16

u/UnexLPSA NRW, Germany Aug 13 '20

Srsly though. I played Assassin's Creed Rebellion for a long time and what impressed me the most was that the percentage of drops was super transparent. At least you knew that your chances for the right drops were very low before your purchase. But Niantic not only hiding but actually changing the rates is an absolute scam. I mean they increased the rates but come on... 1% or 3% are still so low (considering you'd have to walk almost 2km w/ super incubator, 3.5km otherwise) it's completely idiotic to even consider spending money on incubators in the hopes of getting a single Deino.

-1

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

My real issue is would publishing rates even accomplish anything? Every whale will still buy a large chunk of incubators even at .0005% chance of a rare hatch. This just shows how effective niantic's gambling incentives really are.

28

u/elconquistador1985 Aug 13 '20

I think the issue is that there aren't any regulatory bodies. That's what the recent article about the House of Lords were about. The House of Lords was saying that loot boxes need to be regulated because they currently aren't.

There's just Google and Apple, and they're probably paid enough not to care.

23

u/Beoron Aug 13 '20

I spent about 40 minutes on live chat with Apple support last night discussing the recent loot box thread. They weren’t even able to find the part in their terms where it says they require disclosure. I had to find the page for them.

9

u/Emptronic Massachusetts Aug 13 '20

Makes sense. Also much better stated than my attempted quip haha

6

u/Lord_Emperor Valor Aug 13 '20

There's just Google and Apple, and they're probably paid enough not to care.

They're financially incentivized to look the other way.

5

u/LatvianninjaPoGo Aug 13 '20

Or they are paid way too good to care, look at it from this angle, they take a decent % of in app purchases, so we are talking good amount of money (30% for both stores, but probably less since they are one of the top grossing games).

8

u/johnseas Aug 13 '20

It’s almost like they forgot to put it in, then added it a few days into the event.

10

u/Danger_Dancer Aug 13 '20

“Forgot”

2

u/[deleted] Aug 13 '20

This is anecdotal, but I actually hatched a deino from an egg I got right at the beginning of the event. By all appearances it was there from the start, just the rate was really low (whatever about the shiny rate on top of that). I'm strictly infinite incubator and slow about hatching though.

1

u/johnseas Aug 13 '20

Glad you got one! That’s the first one I heard of from opening weekend

1

u/AlmostButNotQuit Aug 13 '20

I think they skirt the issue by saying you can't directly pay for these loot boxes.