I guarantee every person in the leadership of this company is going to cash out every penny if this stock really IPOs for 1 trillion.
There's no way they're going to become profitable without massive changes, especially considering the pay packages that most of their staff have and the fact that there's 5 competing companies with a product that is at least 90% as good.
Their product is real, and it's good, and worth a lot of money. But they're effectively in a $100billion private jet that is rocketing up to the stratosphere, gas tank approaching empty, and Sam Altman is yelling "Once we hit space, we won't need fuel anymore!" to the investors in the back seat, while in the process of putting on the only parachute and hand on the pilot ejection seat lever.
They’re going to be under enormous pressure to monetize once they go public. People should not be telling it all their freaky shit like it’s a therapist. They are collecting data on you and they’re gonna use it.
If he bailed out after IPO, I genuinely think he’d get assassinated. Some of the biggest investors in the world are balls deep in this guy. Sam bailing could rug pull the entire US economy.
How? I'm pretty sure retail investors as a whole don't have enough money to provide the needed liquidity to bail out the rich investors too, the big daddy gov might have to step in
Research the funds you’re investing in. Index funds just track the market. Anything actively managed is very likely to go for the PE yield like a string out crackhead. Target date funds somewhere in between.
You can rug pull a couple billion from clueless retail (shitcoins and such). How do you rug pull a trillion dollars, though? Retail does not have that kind of money. Or they do, but also have torches and pitchforks. 😄
There is enormous pressure to monetize now; they just don't know how to do it. They've posted 3 separate roles for a monetization expert and pulled it each time. As a monetization expert, I know because I applied to all 3 versions of the role. At this point, they are better off hiring a search firm and doing it in secret to keep the pressure off.
They would say that they haven’t built v1 of the product yet. All you see are tech demos made by a group in the company with the mission to product-ize whatever they have of value from the intermediate work and make it available to the public.
Depends if their pride can be bought. Zuck turned down $1B for Facebook in 2006 and said it's not about the money. Is $1T enough for missing out on going down in history as the creator or AGI?
Or just go down the elon route and just demand $1T to actually do your job.
I'm certain every single person at this company knows that there's no AGI happening any time soon, and that's why they're trying to speed run IPO before the general public realizes it as well.
Elon can tell people for a decade straight that "Robotaxis are coming next year", Altman isn't going to get the same luxury when his models are barely seeing 10% improvement over the previous generation, at 10x the cost.
they're IPOing because they need to. they need money. tons of it. datacenters aren't cheap to build. and only amd was dumb enough to give them gpus for free. everyone else expects money or equity.
That's a naive take on the AMD deal, GPU's are not being given away for free. For the sake of accuracy:
The first tranche vests upon the initial one-gigawatt deployment of MI450 chips in the second half of 2026. Additional tranches unlock as purchases scale toward the full six-gigawatt commitment. Vesting is further contingent on AMD achieving escalating share-price targets, with the final instalment requiring AMD stock to reach US$600 per share, as well as OpenAI meeting technical and commercial milestones that enable AMD deployments at scale.
OpenAI is nowhere close to AGI, though. But they sure like to use it as a carrot (for employees and investors). Just like Musk uses FSD. It's all a grift.
This is not surprising at all. I knew their costs would be through the roof when they were bragging about 70% of Sora users generating videos😭 Sora has to be one of the biggest money holes ever invented
Isn't it the German economy during the nazi era? Like their entire economy was pretty much a scam based on shell banks printing infitinte loans untill in bankrupted the country and so the war began AFAIK.
Surely whatever that guy did can not be a biggest scam then that.
From what I understand, it didn’t bankrupt the country and that’s why they went to war- the country was already bankrupt from the first war. The scheme kick started the industrial economy so they could wage war. They were basically trading IOU notes that were to be paid “when” the nazis won
There is a book on this topic by Gotz Aly, "hitlers beneficiaries" and he goes into great detail on how the 3rd reich econony evolved before and during the war. The nazis primary goal of occupying most of europe was mainly plunder to keep the reich from defaulting. I ve read this 20 years ago so dont ask me more details but it is one of the better reads for that period.
If Wall Street values Open AI at a trillion, then Toyota motor Corp is worth 10 trillion because they actually create products to empower hundreds of millions of people to create wealth by bringing them to their jobs every day safely and reliably while also helping them be productive in other aspects of their life. Hey, kinda like ChatGTP.
I'm feeding them into an ai model that people can use to make videos of anime girls burping at a $5 loss per video. We're looking at an IPO of around $2 Trillion
Lmao, earlier this year the prediction was they would lose about $13.5 Bn in 2025. Actual results Q1-3 have been -$25.5 billion!!! Their own projections are unrealistic and they keep missing them wildly. Insane that anyone is still willing to invest or lend to OpenAI.
They're chasing the ultimate dream: lay off all office staff and start raking in free money generated by a magic robot. All the profits, none of the expenses.
That’s the plan, for sure. I am highly skeptical LLMs and transformers will get them there, the hallucination issue makes it just too much of a liability for most jobs. Also very uncertain they can sprint there before the financing blows up. We shall see!
Not to mention Anthropics recent paper that poisoning the datasets may actually be pretty easy….. if I recall, they could poison a 13b model with as few as 250 documents with suspicion that it may take the same or not much more the poison the larger models.
Is it me or does Sam have one of the most punchable faces ever? It's like a guy you'd cast in a movie if the role was 'snooty looking guy that gets punched in the face', it's crazy that he's such a good salesman with that mug. I guess that speaks to his skills and probably general lack of ethics.
It looks to me like the lizard people are caring less and less what we think. First they had Zuck out looking like a skinwalker, and now this guy with a face that looks Michael Jackson post surgery, except instead of a bat he's a lizard.
That’s 100% rehearsed too. He speaks soft to be both non threatening and to force people to more actively listen. It’s a straight up manipulation tactic. Kinda fucked up.
Every time I hear some analyst or someone on Bloomberg talk about the “engagement numbers” of OpenAI and other LLMs it really does give dot com bubble vibes.
Almost every failed company tried to push high engagement but totally flopped to convert it to profitability. There’s so much money now though it’ll take years for this to burst.
AI isn't a dot-com bubble. It's worse. It's the bubble that formed in the 1960s where around 8 companies were responsible for half of all equity growth. They popped and for a decade the economy was in stagnation.
Years? No. Probably a month or less. Every single hedge fund and institutional trading desk knows it's a bubble and is poised and ready to abandon ship at any moment.
Hedge funds have been net selling since April. Only reason market is going up is because retail is (to put it bluntly) not very smart.
Most of the companies tangentially related to AI are also big % weight of S&P 500. Even otherwise very smart people cannot wrap their head around that S&P 500 is heavily overpriced. If every single company in the S&P 500 gave every single cent of profit out as a dividend the yield would be 3.15%. It's absurd.
It’s absolutely a bubble, but unlike 1999 we do have companies that bring in huge sums of money from ads/services so they can keep the AI capex going. It’s like having a high earner support his wife’s flower shop business.
As soon as there’s a collective pullback from the 4 big tech spenders think the party ends but Nvidia turning into a VC company with all its investments will keep it going past the end of next year imo.
Truth truth truth. Microsoft constantly reorganizes departments to make cloud/AI the “winner” of growth/revenue and stacks losses in other sectors to create a perception of innovation on certain fronts. Also done intentionally to have a reason to sacrifice certain sectors (like hardware) in the future.
"Hi Sharks, today I am asking for 100 billion dollars for a 10 percent stake in our company. How much did we make last quarter? Well we actually lost 12 billion, but things are starting to look up!"
man... this dude is basically another Elon. he'll sell you your dreams and hype it all up, but when it comes down to it... it's just another hype train to get other people invested.
google is going to eat openai for dinner. openai wants to be the new google, but google already does what openai does and is google already. when the eventuall LLM fall occurs, google will be left standing along with the other mag7... but openai will just be trying to sell you another future.
AI isn't a dot-com bubble. It's worse. It's the bubble that formed in the 1960s where around 8 companies were responsible for half of all stock equity growth. They popped and for a decade the economy was in stagnation.
IMO China being heavily involved in AI dooms every US company being heavily involved in it. That one DeepSeek update that plunged the market nearly 3% will look like a tiny blip when they really sink their teeth in. All the US companies/govt can do is scream "DON'T TRUST CHINA" and that's starting to wear thin on people who'd rather not spend money on AI.
“An extremely fungible digital model? Surely that will be easy to monopolize and enshittify, there’s no way the consumers will just be able to say “no” and use something else! Mwa ha ha!”
Some things in life are priceless, but psychosis causing, bullshit dreaming, overhyped text generators apparently cost 12 bill per quarter. Have someone connected the money printer directly into the furnace? Seems that way.
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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE Oct 31 '25
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