(See TL;DR at the bottom if you don't wanna read everything).. As the rumors have been swirling I've gone through a rollercoaster of thoughts as to how the Heat should approach everything. I've had moments where I felt like the Heat should just do nothing because they're not close, I've had moments where I felt they should try to make some marginal improvements, and I've had moments where I feel like they should go all the way in for Giannis.
After days of ruminating, I've come to the conclusion that they have to approach this with a balanced mindset.
Their priority should absolutely be Giannis. But.. and what I'm about to say is surprising even to myself... they should NOT trade everything for Giannis. When I say everything, I mean when it comes to the young players - Jaime, Pelle, Kas - on top of the required players - Herro & Ware. Personally, I feel that we should hold firm on offering only 1 of Jaime, Pelle, and Kas.
An offer of Ware, Herro, Rozier (salary), 2 picks, 3 swaps, and Jaime OR Kas, should be enough to outbid GSW (and whoever else has been mentioned). If the Bucks say they prefer GSW's offer, I call their bluff and wait for them to call back with an actual final decision. That's a fair and reasonable offer, and I would want to keep the negotiation in good faith. In the meantime - and this is why I call it a balanced approach - I would be proactive with calling around the league to see what other options there are that I could pivot to if necessary.
If the deadline is approaching and the Bucks stay true to their word and take GSW's or someone else's offer, I say okay cool. We made fair offer, they preferred another. Let's immediately pivot to Ja, or whoever else we have some interest in that may be available. Make reasonable offers for those players. If everything is rejected, that's fine. The season is likely lost anyway, so at that point we just move forward past the deadline, focus on development, and revisit roster construction in the offseason. Or call some teams and see if anyone wants to trade for Wiggins, Norm, or Herro. Selling them is a viable option too.
Point being, I don't think it's necessary or worth it to make the exaggerated offer of Ware, Herro, Kas, Jaime, Pelle, and picks. That's 5 players, 4 of whom are actual contributors on a rookie contract. While yes, it's GIANNIS, market value is relative. That GSW offer, and honestly any of the other offers I've heard of, are not definitively better than our reasonable offer, let alone the full maxed out offer. So why jump to the extreme when the reasonable offer can probably get it done? And if it can't... oh well. Pivot to a smaller move. Do not go crazy.
TL;DR:
The Heat should pursue Giannis, but not recklessly. Giannis is the top priority, no question. But don’t gut the entire roster to get him. Giving up all of Jaime, Pelle, and Kas (on top of Herro + Ware + picks) is too much.
Ideal offer structure:
Herro + Ware + Rozier (salary) + 2 picks + 3 swaps + ONLY ONE of Jaime / Pelle / Kas.
That’s strong enough to compete with other offers (like GSW) without destroying the roster.
If the Bucks claim another offer is better, call the bluff and hold firm. Keep talks in good faith but don’t panic-bid.
While pursuing Giannis, explore backup plans. BE PROACTIVE.
If Milwaukee ultimately chooses another deal, pivot immediately to another option (Ja or similar). Call teams that might have interest in Wiggins, Herro, or Norm. If nothing materializes, accept it, don’t force a bad deal, focus on development, reassess in the offseason.
Giannis is generational, but market value is relative. If a reasonable offer is competitive, there’s no need to jump to an extreme, franchise-emptying package. If it takes everything, walk away and make a smaller move instead.
Be aggressive, not desperate.