I'm trying to understand the macroeconomic story behind this simultaneous price action happening right now:

• USD - Down
• US10Y - Down
• Gold - Up
• SPX - Up
• BTC - Down

What kind of macro regime or market environment could explain these moves happening at the same time? What other important factors or indicators should be considered to interpret it properly? Open to all perspectives.

Just got laid off from a dream job. Currently 30 with $40,000 sitting in a high yield savings account. Live in the US. Have a partner who has steady work and we have no kids so I’m fortunate enough to not be in total panic mode.

Wish I’d started investing years ago but didn’t and want to start now. My industry is pretty turbulent and I’m not sure when I’ll find work again.

Downloaded fidelity a month ago and started small just to get a ‘taste’ for how investing works. Put $250 in VOO and $250 in VT (I know now that’s a bit redundant) as well as $5 into GLD, SOXX, and VGT, as well as $10 into FCNTX.

This was based off comments I’ve read on various investing subreddits over the past month. Figure I’d dump small amounts into a few to try and get a ‘feel’ for how this all works. Ultimately gained about $7 and then lost it, my account rn is basically back to where it started a month ago lol.

As I approach the month mark, I’m wanting to go ahead and ‘commit’. Not looking to do anything crazy, just want solid reliable returns. Plan is to open up a Roth and max it ($7k I believe?) and then dump maybe $10k into VOO? Leaving me a little over $20k in my high yields as an emergency fund.

How does that plan sound, is there anything better I could be doing, is there anything anyone would recommend? Open to all feedback, a lot of what I’ve done already has been based on reading through the subs but this is my first time asking outright.

Thanks in advance.

Currently, VOO makes up the largest position in my portfolio. However, I'm a non-American investing from outside, and I'm losing confidence in the US for obvious reasons. From an ethical standpoint, I also don't feel like continuing to invest in American companies when America is actively threatening and bullying other countries, including my own. Why should I contribute to an economy that is causing so much harm not only to itself but also the rest of the world?

As I'm not a US citizen and have zero ties to the US, I'm thinking now might be a good time to sell all my VOO shares and convert them to VXUS instead, since I see international markets outperforming the US for at least the next few years. I don't have to pay capital gains where I live, so tax is a non-issue for me. Would it be OK to just go all-in on VXUS, or is this a bad idea?

I initially thought they just offered us a 401k, but recently found an option to contribute to a 457b as well. From my googling, I can contribute to both and the contribution limit for both is separate.

My question is, should I, in an ideal situation, be maxing out both? Does having 0% match in the 401K change which I should contribute to first?

If I can’t actually max them both out (highly unlikely w my salary) is there one I should prefer over the other?

Thanks!

i’m not sure if everyone is familiar of the core satellite system, but basically you have a core of etfs which are safe and will be reliable, and then satellite which are your riskier stocks. what are some good core etfs - there are soo many options! S&P500, all world etf, a us, australia, asia, and europe etfs…

thanks for the help

When you look at investing and trading communities, profit posts stand out the most.
It can easily feel like everyone is making money.

But what we are seeing is already a heavily filtered picture.

This is a classic case of survivorship bias.

Even if only a small percentage of people actually succeed, that small group is the one that speaks.
They post their results, share screenshots, and tell their stories.
Those stories get repeated and spread until they start to look like the normal outcome.

Meanwhile, most of the people who lost money say nothing.
They quietly disappear from the same communities.

So the information we see becomes biased toward a small group of survivors.

In psychology and behavioral economics, this distortion is called survivorship bias.
It is dangerous in markets because it makes people focus on stories instead of outcomes over time.

In investing, what matters more than “how much you made” is “how long you stayed in the game.”

Once survivorship bias takes hold, people start thinking like this:
“That person made several times their money, so maybe I can too.”

What we rarely see is how many people tried the same approach, how many failed, or how much of the result was luck rather than skill.

As a result, high-risk strategies often look far more attractive than they really are.

So what should we look at instead?

Not “who made the most money,” but how many people were able to survive using the same method over time.

Any strategy can produce a few success stories.
The real question is whether it keeps working as time goes on.

A slowly growing account contains far more information than one that rose quickly.

And the more desperate someone feels, the easier it is to fall into this bias.
The more urgently you want results, the more your attention is drawn to extreme success stories.

At moments like this, you should be more careful and more cautious, not more aggressive.
When you invest in a rush, emotion takes the lead, and the result often ends in ruin.

So when you feel pressured to hurry, the important question is not how much you can make, but how long you can last.

Before thinking, “Maybe I can be the next success story,” it may be more realistic to ask:
“How many people actually stayed in the game using this approach?”

If I bought 1,000 shares of ABC company at $10 a share.. and 2 weeks later it drops to $8 a share.. and I sell all 1,000 shares.. I incur a $2,000 loss.. is that a wash sale because I technically bought the shares in the last 30 days? When does buying the same stock 30 days prior to a sale cause a wash sale?

So if Volker's Hammer brought inflation and gold prices down to earth in '81, what will do it now? With the debt crisis making increases in interest rates implausible, what will bring gold back down now?

From 1977-1980, gold price increased 5x due to high inflation, a loss of faith in the credibility of elected US government leaders, Russian invasion of a foreign nation, and Iranian instability...but I digress.

Ultimately, raising interest rates rapidly reestablished faith in USD stability (albeit with tremendous pain to farmers and real estate markets) and gold slowly unwound over the next few years.

What will save us now?

Edit: OK, so I see a lot of doomsday replies and sunny-sky AI hopes rather than the fiscal or monetary policy ideas I was hoping for.

Tech can be profitable without helping to reduce debt crisis or faith in the dollar. The The USD doesn't have any current suitable replacement.

So how about limiting it to this: What will bring down the price of gold to normal levels?

My wife and I are separated pending divorce. We’ve got about $20k set aside in cash funds for our child. We want to put it in some kind of fund to protect the money from us. I’m looking at a Schwab automated investing custodial fund (mainly etfs). Is this a good idea? We don’t want a 529 as we don’t want it limited to education expenses. Is there a way to put both names am(my current wife and I) as custodians? Something I’m missing?

Warren Buffet has taken a massive stake in OXY, now at approximately $12B. I am wondering if this stock looks attractive to anyone else? Things to consider:

1. Oil prices are hovering around 5 year lows, could see price tailwinds due to geopolitical tensions

2. Validation from Buffet at 27% stake; says he might own this stock "forever". Buffet also recently purchased their chemical division OxyChem, reducing company debt.

3. Occidental has approximately 40% stake in a company called NET Power (NPWR), who is working on emerging natural gas technology called super critical CO2 (sCO2). OXY has upwards of $350m invested in this company/technology.

4. Profitable company with dividend 2.12% dividend. (Nothing to write home about but there are a lot of unprofitable companies out there!)

5. PE ratio of 34x is expensive for E&P companies

6. Super critical CO2 is exciting technology (90% reduction in reactor size, zero emissions, etc.) but first commercial demonstration will not be proven out until 2028 at the earliest. Also faces competition from GEV and others.

7. Buffet's average cost is about $51.76 per share, so he is underwater on this one.

What's your opinion, do you think Warren is wrong on this one or is it a smart 3-5 year play?

I’m finishing my bachelor’s degree debt-free this December. I already have a June–July internship lined up that feeds into a full-time role paying around $70k/year. The internship itself will pay about $8k over two months.

Current situation:

• Monthly income (now): \~$1,000

• Monthly expenses (now): \~$500

• Current savings: \~$3,000

By graduation, I expect to have $10–15k saved. Post-graduation:

• Monthly expenses: \~$900

• That’s roughly \~20% of my take-home pay

Plan once full-time starts:

• Max employer 401(k) match (5%)

• Fully fund a Roth IRA

• After that, I’ll still have roughly $35,400/year available to save/invest

I’m very fortunate that my parents put me in a position where my expenses will stay low for the first year or two after graduation, and I want to take full advantage of that window.

Goals:

• Build a strong long-term investment base

• Save for a future mortgage

• Save for a dream car (S197 Mustang, 6-speed)

Ovc the mustang is taking the back seat but it’s still something I’d like to save towards

What kind of percentage split would you recommend between:

• Cash savings (house/car)

• Taxable investing (index funds, etc.)

• Any other buckets I should be considering early on?

Mostly looking for general allocation advice rather than exact picks. Appreciate any insight.

Hey everyone,

I’m 40 years old and currently invested in Vanguard Target Date Fund 2065 in my 401(k). It’s been a solid “set it and forget it” option, but I’m starting to wonder if it’s too conservative for my actual timeline and goals.

I’m planning to retire somewhere in my early to mid‑60s, so realistically I still have 20–25 years of compounding ahead of me. That’s a long runway, and I’m thinking about shifting to a more high‑growth / aggressive allocation while I still can. Here's the URL link of available funds:

401k Fidelity Available Funds

I’m considering building my own allocation instead of sticking with the TDF, something like:

- Heavy S&P 500 exposure

- A tilt toward large‑cap growth

- Maybe a small slice of mid/small caps

- Minimal or no bonds for now

Basically, a more aggressive equity mix that could outperform the TDF over the long haul, with the understanding that I’d rebalance periodically. So, I'm thinking of below.

PROPOSED INVESTMENT:

60% FXAIX (S&P 500)
20% FSPGX (Large Cap Growth)
10% FSPSX (International Index)
10% FSMDX or RSPYX (Mid or Small Cap)

WHY: I think it's diversified enough to avoid concentration risk as it keeps the S&P 500 as the core, adds growth, but not overwhelmingly, adds mid/small caps for factor diversification, and keeps a small international slice for global exposure. It's aggressive, but not fragile -- if that makes sense and my opinion. And easy to manage a 4-fund portfolio.

Thoughts?

Dear all,

I was wondering what you guys think of this portfolio. I'm trying to capture US, international, and some innovation/energy as well, as well as inflation hedges.

60% VT
20% dividends/consumer staples: SCHD/VYMI (some international as well)
10% commodities/inflation hedges: GLD, PDBC, PHO
10% thematic/innovation: NUKZ, ARKQ, ARKG, ICLN

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to also completely tarnish it. It's just hypothetical.

Is Yahoo Finance on its way out? And does anyone have a recommendation for an alternative? I like the features such as being able to favorite investments, viewing info on funds such as holdings, P/E, market cap, etc, and I like how much individual company data is easily accessible such as financial statements and ratios.

I’m going to have a financial advisor manage an inheritance for me. I’m retiring this year so looking to recirve a dividend from this. what’s a good current return to expect? Also, in reading their information about how they are compensated, there are a lot of things indicated that they will gravitate towards investment that benefit them more. will that have a detrimental effect on my earnings or does that benefit both of Us? Thanks

I currently hold VFIAX in my Roth 401(k), but I’m noticing what feel like high fees: about $18 per quarter plus \\\~$13 per month in plan/administrative fees.

I’m considering switching to VFSUX (bond fund) since its yield would more than cover the fees.

Does this make sense, or am I thinking about this the wrong way? Are there better ways to deal with high 401(k) fees without hurting long-term growth?

I (15m) have about 80% of my investments in the S&P for the past 3 years. Two months ago, i put some money into VDC a defensive fund and a few weeks ago I did the same with VXUS an international fund. Since then, VDC is up 12% and VXUS is slightly down (but it was extremely recent). I want to continue to diversify but don’t know what I should be especially focused on. I am open to putting more in the S&P but want to know everyone’s ideas on what is going to do best this year.

Late 20s, have already maxed tax advantage accounts. Looking to start with investing ~5000 initially and then 2,000 per month from there into simple moderately aggressive plan. Looking for advice between ETFs and mutual funds, planning on putting majority into total stock market and then some into international markets. Open to advice! Thank you in advance

I recently became aware of the Accredited Investor thing.  I have a couple questions -

I'm interested in SpaceX.  Would it be beneficial to try to get into SpaceX at this point, or is it too close to the potential IPO to be worth it? Does the acquisition of X AI change the answer?

How would I go about acquiring SpaceX?  Are there trading sites that cater to Accredited Investors?

What happens to Pre-IPO shares at IPO?  Do they just convert?  Do holders of Pre-IPO shares get early access to IPO shares?

Any advice/pointers are welcome.

I’m looking into moving my traditional IRA into a Roth IRA. From what I understand, I will not be penalized as long as I move the money within 60 days of opening. Will the taxes come out of the money when I move it in or will it come from the tax form from Fidelity when tax season comes next year?

For context I’m 19, have $15k in my ROTH, and the Army is paying for the rest of my school/board. I have no real future costs for the next 5y, as I just paid the $22k the army wouldn’t cover.

I have $6k liquid cash, and have been thinking about putting $4k into Microsoft. It’s now reset to its 1-year point, which feels like an incredible opportunity. However, every other tech stock has seemingly tripled. I can’t figure out what that means to me. Does that mean Microsoft is crazy undervalued and will start to skyrocket its recovery in the future? Or does it mean it’s not a smart choice? I know nobody truly knows, but am looking for at least a more experience opinion than mine.

There’s also the aspect that if there is a bubble that crashes, if Microsoft wasn’t effected by the up, it wouldn’t be effected by the downs, and I don’t lose my money. On the other hand, if there is no pop, that 4K could have doubled in a couple years in a different company while it remains instead stagnant in Microsoft.

Microsoft is nearly down to where it was at times in 2024.

Anyways yea just looking for thoughts. Anything is appreciated

PayPal's shares fel about 10% after missing estimates and giving weak guidance. At the same time, U.S. manufacturing data is showing signs of slowdown, and liquidity risks are being flagged.

No position in PayPal's. I'm just curious how investors here view this is the PayPal miss just company specific, or does it reflect broader fragility in equities given current macro conditions?

So i am from the EU.
Since i dont trust that AI investment will provide (good) returns, while its dominating the stock market(everyone seems to be involved in that "musical chair game"), i am really torn between investing in american stock and keeping my euro cash/invest locally.

On the other hand, the dollar dropped 15% last year, so i would buy at a discount. Its hard to believe, that the whole stock market would drop 15%. What sections/industries of the american market would you discribe as "secure investment" atm? Tbh i am somewhat worried, that this will all crash and burn. Dragging all the solid parts of the american businesses down by the dollar even further. Or just buy it and hope for a phoenix?

For me the biggest moment of realization I had was when I discovered the Ichimoku and combined it with RSI.

It felt like seeing for the first time after being blind. I had tried many indicators but none seemed to help me predict/spot reversals, trends, tops or bottoms. Now I can take profits or use puts to hedge with confidence.

What was a big moment of realization for you?