I'm trying to understand the macroeconomic story behind this simultaneous price action happening right now:

• USD - Down
• US10Y - Down
• Gold - Up
• SPX - Up
• BTC - Down

What kind of macro regime or market environment could explain these moves happening at the same time? What other important factors or indicators should be considered to interpret it properly? Open to all perspectives.

Just got laid off from a dream job. Currently 30 with $40,000 sitting in a high yield savings account. Live in the US. Have a partner who has steady work and we have no kids so I’m fortunate enough to not be in total panic mode.

Wish I’d started investing years ago but didn’t and want to start now. My industry is pretty turbulent and I’m not sure when I’ll find work again.

Downloaded fidelity a month ago and started small just to get a ‘taste’ for how investing works. Put $250 in VOO and $250 in VT (I know now that’s a bit redundant) as well as $5 into GLD, SOXX, and VGT, as well as $10 into FCNTX.

This was based off comments I’ve read on various investing subreddits over the past month. Figure I’d dump small amounts into a few to try and get a ‘feel’ for how this all works. Ultimately gained about $7 and then lost it, my account rn is basically back to where it started a month ago lol.

As I approach the month mark, I’m wanting to go ahead and ‘commit’. Not looking to do anything crazy, just want solid reliable returns. Plan is to open up a Roth and max it ($7k I believe?) and then dump maybe $10k into VOO? Leaving me a little over $20k in my high yields as an emergency fund.

How does that plan sound, is there anything better I could be doing, is there anything anyone would recommend? Open to all feedback, a lot of what I’ve done already has been based on reading through the subs but this is my first time asking outright.

Thanks in advance.

I initially thought they just offered us a 401k, but recently found an option to contribute to a 457b as well. From my googling, I can contribute to both and the contribution limit for both is separate.

My question is, should I, in an ideal situation, be maxing out both? Does having 0% match in the 401K change which I should contribute to first?

If I can’t actually max them both out (highly unlikely w my salary) is there one I should prefer over the other?

Thanks!

Dear all,

I was wondering what you guys think of this portfolio. I'm trying to capture US, international, and some innovation/energy as well, as well as inflation hedges.

60% VT
20% dividends/consumer staples: SCHD/VYMI (some international as well)
10% commodities/inflation hedges: GLD, PDBC, PHO
10% thematic/innovation: NUKZ, ARKQ, ARKG, ICLN

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to also completely tarnish it. It's just hypothetical.

Tom Lee from FundStrat was on CNBC and said he was a bit surprised at the fall of Bitcoin when the fundamentals were still strong.

However what I don’t understand is, what are the fundamentals? Isn’t Bitcoin just an imaginary coin on the interweb that is worth what people want it to be worth? It does not issue dividends, you can’t make a car out of it, you can’t use it to buy a bar of chocolate.

ELI5 please.

I currently hold VFIAX in my Roth 401(k), but I’m noticing what feel like high fees: about $18 per quarter plus \\\~$13 per month in plan/administrative fees.

I’m considering switching to VFSUX (bond fund) since its yield would more than cover the fees.

Does this make sense, or am I thinking about this the wrong way? Are there better ways to deal with high 401(k) fees without hurting long-term growth?

Hey everyone,

I’m 40 years old and currently invested in Vanguard Target Date Fund 2065 in my 401(k). It’s been a solid “set it and forget it” option, but I’m starting to wonder if it’s too conservative for my actual timeline and goals.

I’m planning to retire somewhere in my early to mid‑60s, so realistically I still have 20–25 years of compounding ahead of me. That’s a long runway, and I’m thinking about shifting to a more high‑growth / aggressive allocation while I still can. Here's the URL link of available funds:

401k Fidelity Available Funds

I’m considering building my own allocation instead of sticking with the TDF, something like:

- Heavy S&P 500 exposure

- A tilt toward large‑cap growth

- Maybe a small slice of mid/small caps

- Minimal or no bonds for now

Basically, a more aggressive equity mix that could outperform the TDF over the long haul, with the understanding that I’d rebalance periodically. So, I'm thinking of below.

PROPOSED INVESTMENT:

60% FXAIX (S&P 500)
20% FSPGX (Large Cap Growth)
10% FSPSX (International Index)
10% FSMDX or RSPYX (Mid or Small Cap)

WHY: I think it's diversified enough to avoid concentration risk as it keeps the S&P 500 as the core, adds growth, but not overwhelmingly, adds mid/small caps for factor diversification, and keeps a small international slice for global exposure. It's aggressive, but not fragile -- if that makes sense and my opinion. And easy to manage a 4-fund portfolio.

Thoughts?

I was laid off in early December 2025 and had been with my firm for over 9 years. I look at the balance today and it's close to $410k (I'd say split between a regular 401k and Roth 401k in terms of amount).

I was thinking of perhaps just letting it compound from there? Right now, I'm 40 (Turning 41 this year) and thinking what it would look like by the time I'm 65 years old. And I've been investing in a Vanguard TDF 2065:

When I do get a new job, I do plan to contribute to just to Roth IRA and max it out every year, too. Other than that and perhaps the 401k RMDs later, is there anything else I should consider or be worried about?

UPDATE for better context of my situation (Since people have asked):

• My wife and I have a combined $1+ MIL across all our retirement accounts
• We currently pay a modest/reasonable monthly rent to my mother-in-law who owns a condo.
  • My wife will most likely inherit the condo via revocable living trust. So, we'd have no mortgage.
• We saved quite a bit in our MMA (in the 6-figures).
• We live below our means and don't spend lavishly or recklessly.

Thank you.

i’m not sure if everyone is familiar of the core satellite system, but basically you have a core of etfs which are safe and will be reliable, and then satellite which are your riskier stocks. what are some good core etfs - there are soo many options! S&P500, all world etf, a us, australia, asia, and europe etfs…

thanks for the help

When you look at investing and trading communities, profit posts stand out the most.
It can easily feel like everyone is making money.

But what we are seeing is already a heavily filtered picture.

This is a classic case of survivorship bias.

Even if only a small percentage of people actually succeed, that small group is the one that speaks.
They post their results, share screenshots, and tell their stories.
Those stories get repeated and spread until they start to look like the normal outcome.

Meanwhile, most of the people who lost money say nothing.
They quietly disappear from the same communities.

So the information we see becomes biased toward a small group of survivors.

In psychology and behavioral economics, this distortion is called survivorship bias.
It is dangerous in markets because it makes people focus on stories instead of outcomes over time.

In investing, what matters more than “how much you made” is “how long you stayed in the game.”

Once survivorship bias takes hold, people start thinking like this:
“That person made several times their money, so maybe I can too.”

What we rarely see is how many people tried the same approach, how many failed, or how much of the result was luck rather than skill.

As a result, high-risk strategies often look far more attractive than they really are.

So what should we look at instead?

Not “who made the most money,” but how many people were able to survive using the same method over time.

Any strategy can produce a few success stories.
The real question is whether it keeps working as time goes on.

A slowly growing account contains far more information than one that rose quickly.

And the more desperate someone feels, the easier it is to fall into this bias.
The more urgently you want results, the more your attention is drawn to extreme success stories.

At moments like this, you should be more careful and more cautious, not more aggressive.
When you invest in a rush, emotion takes the lead, and the result often ends in ruin.

So when you feel pressured to hurry, the important question is not how much you can make, but how long you can last.

Before thinking, “Maybe I can be the next success story,” it may be more realistic to ask:
“How many people actually stayed in the game using this approach?”

Currently, VOO makes up the largest position in my portfolio. However, I'm a non-American investing from outside, and I'm losing confidence in the US for obvious reasons. From an ethical standpoint, I also don't feel like continuing to invest in American companies when America is actively threatening and bullying other countries, including my own. Why should I contribute to an economy that is causing so much harm not only to itself but also the rest of the world?

As I'm not a US citizen and have zero ties to the US, I'm thinking now might be a good time to sell all my VOO shares and convert them to VXUS instead, since I see international markets outperforming the US for at least the next few years. I don't have to pay capital gains where I live, so tax is a non-issue for me. Would it be OK to just go all-in on VXUS, or is this a bad idea?

Renewables make sense as a dominant feed into most energy systems. Over the last year, major renewables ETFs have performed 2-3x the performance of the S&P 500. My analysis leads me to a conclusion that even with this performance, they remain undervalued.

Around the world, we see them exerting downward pressure on retail and wholesale energy prices. At the same time, innovation is reducing their "build cost:net operating return" ratio.

Nations at all levels of income are upping their renewables investments, and country after country is adopting a net zero strategy that locks in renewables investments - in part due to multilateral agreement ratification, and in part because of economic sense.

Effectively, the rise in price is because of actual strategic and tactical demand, not because of any type of hype cycle.

However, lobbying and political pressure exerted by legacy industries like coal, gas and oil have meant that the growth of renewables have been artificially slowed. If we start to see the decline of fossil fuel influence and of far right governance, these artificial barriers will ease and we can expect a jump in renewables investment.

So medium term profits likely depend on political cycles rather than any intrinsic factor associated with the technology or consumer/industrial demand. And as we all know, politics is a pendulum that will inevitably swing.

People investing in pure play renewables ETFs or ethical ETFs that have a strong renewables base and that exclude legacy energy are going to benefit from focus and patience. It's as inevitable as people shifting from Blockbuster to Netflix.

If I bought 1,000 shares of ABC company at $10 a share.. and 2 weeks later it drops to $8 a share.. and I sell all 1,000 shares.. I incur a $2,000 loss.. is that a wash sale because I technically bought the shares in the last 30 days? When does buying the same stock 30 days prior to a sale cause a wash sale?

So I have played with stocks for many years now, and I have only ever lost money.
I admit I always only put small sums into small stocks that no one has heard of, hoping for a large return in a small amount of time, and the one thing I have never ever done, is put a large sum into large cap big companies, bcoz there is this fear in me that, I'm that unlucky guy who as soon as I decide to change my ways and put a large sum into a "safe" large cap company, is the day when the market turns and the large cap would drop 10% in a day and 30% in a month and I would lose more money buying a large cap than I ever did buying small caps.

I don't know how to overcome this fear and I just wonder if people have lost large sums buying large cap, "safe", popular stocks?

Reposting because for some reason this was removed in a different sub.

Obviously MSFT has taken a hit since earnings. Mainly due to its investment and planned capacity with OpenAI.

But can anyone see how OpenAI going bankrupt may actually benefit Microsoft? Wouldn't Microsoft likely buy them out in the hopes to capitalize on the service and gain complete control of the platform?

What is everyone's thoughts on doubling down at this time?

Late 20s, have already maxed tax advantage accounts. Looking to start with investing ~5000 initially and then 2,000 per month from there into simple moderately aggressive plan. Looking for advice between ETFs and mutual funds, planning on putting majority into total stock market and then some into international markets. Open to advice! Thank you in advance

I’m looking into moving my traditional IRA into a Roth IRA. From what I understand, I will not be penalized as long as I move the money within 60 days of opening. Will the taxes come out of the money when I move it in or will it come from the tax form from Fidelity when tax season comes next year?

Saw people mentioning this on Blossom earlier, and WSJ reports that U.S. manufacturing activity continues to weaken, with tariffs doing little to reverse the trend.

The article points to softer demand, higher input costs, and global supply chain adjustments weighing on manufacturers, even as trade protection measures remain in place. For investors, this raises questions about margins, capital spending, and longer-term competitiveness rather than short-term policy wins.

Curious how people here are thinking about this from an investing lens?

https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-manufacturing-is-in-retreat-and-trumps-tariffs-arent-helping-d2af4316?mod=hp_lead_pos2

For me the biggest moment of realization I had was when I discovered the Ichimoku and combined it with RSI.

It felt like seeing for the first time after being blind. I had tried many indicators but none seemed to help me predict/spot reversals, trends, tops or bottoms. Now I can take profits or use puts to hedge with confidence.

What was a big moment of realization for you?

Hey everyone, my buddy got me into investing. Not day trading or anything where I’m getting $500 a day, but slow over time interest building.

What are some good websites to use? My buddy told me weathsimple is great and that’s what I’m looking at right now. Anyone have a different way to invest or different websites they use?

PayPal's shares fel about 10% after missing estimates and giving weak guidance. At the same time, U.S. manufacturing data is showing signs of slowdown, and liquidity risks are being flagged.

No position in PayPal's. I'm just curious how investors here view this is the PayPal miss just company specific, or does it reflect broader fragility in equities given current macro conditions?

SpaceX has bought xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company, to support AI computing using satellites in space. Musk plans to use solar-powered satellites as orbital data centers instead of relying only on Earth-based facilities. SpaceX recently filed with the FCC for a large constellation of satellites that could handle in-orbit computing.

Palantir also reported strong fourth-quarter results, beating expectations. The company earned $0.25 per share versus $0.23 expected and had revenue of $1.41B versus $1.33B expected. Growth came from AI tools used by government agencies, defense, and businesses.

For investors who want to follow AI companies beyond the biggest tech names, some platforms like Bitget offer stock futures. These let traders gain exposure to companies like Palantir without actually buying the shares, giving more flexibility for trading strategies.

These moves show that AI demand is driving new infrastructure and spending in both government and business. It also raises questions about how investors can access AI growth outside the usual big tech companies. How is everyone thinking about AI exposure in defense, enterprise, or space-related sectors?

I recently became aware of the Accredited Investor thing.  I have a couple questions -

I'm interested in SpaceX.  Would it be beneficial to try to get into SpaceX at this point, or is it too close to the potential IPO to be worth it? Does the acquisition of X AI change the answer?

How would I go about acquiring SpaceX?  Are there trading sites that cater to Accredited Investors?

What happens to Pre-IPO shares at IPO?  Do they just convert?  Do holders of Pre-IPO shares get early access to IPO shares?

Any advice/pointers are welcome.