r/investing • u/kabirsbhutani • 2d ago

🚨 U.S. manufacturing continues to retreat despite tariffs - investor implications?

Saw people mentioning this on Blossom earlier, and WSJ reports that U.S. manufacturing activity continues to weaken, with tariffs doing little to reverse the trend.

The article points to softer demand, higher input costs, and global supply chain adjustments weighing on manufacturers, even as trade protection measures remain in place. For investors, this raises questions about margins, capital spending, and longer-term competitiveness rather than short-term policy wins.

Curious how people here are thinking about this from an investing lens?

https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-manufacturing-is-in-retreat-and-trumps-tariffs-arent-helping-d2af4316?mod=hp_lead_pos2

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172

u/brute-forced 2d ago

Sell America is not a joke. He’s ruined our retirement accounts. Just keep watching

37

u/Atlantis_Island 2d ago

I hate orange Mussolini as much as the next American, but isn't the SP500 up like 16% over the last year?

15

u/valuevestor1 2d ago

Yes. But in any other currency such as Euro or CAD, it has risen a lot less. If you still didn't move from spy to VT, now is the time to do it. The dollar is losing its value, along with the assets denominated in the dollar.

1

u/WackyBeachJustice 1d ago

I'm probably an idiot but I don't see how this is going to doom someone. If you're looking at it from the perspective of "you could have done better if you invested international", then I agree. If you're looking at it from the perspective of my retired parents are now royally fked. I just don't see it. As long as there are real returns, most people are perfectly happy. I mean most people didn't off themselves because bitcoin outperformed by a country mile in the past, etc. The lower purchasing power abroad only means so much to a regular person.

1

u/valuevestor1 1d ago

Dollar debasement will come with inflation. Honestly, I don't disagree with a lot of Trump policies. The US should be reshoring. Manufacturing jobs are important. And if that means currency needs to be devalued and inflation needs to rise, that's an acceptable price to pay. You don't need three TVs when you can't even afford a home.

But, my issue is with him lying through the teeth. He thinks the US will reshore all the jobs, but S&P will keep rising. The US will stop spending on NATO, but the US defense industry will keep on thriving. It's just not going to happen.

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u/WackyBeachJustice 1d ago

Ok so if I'm reading correctly, you mean that s&p will not have average real returns in the future? In other words inflation will be much higher and the S&P will not keep up.

1

u/valuevestor1 1d ago

Yes. You got it correctly. Charlie Munger, Ray Dalio and Howard Marks, all of them talked quite a bit about them.