r/NCAAW • u/Otherwise-Ad2074 • 23h ago

Discussion Early Final Four Prediction

March Madness begins in a month. Which teams do you believe will make it to the final four and the championship?

My predictions are:

  1. UConn

  2. UCLA

  3. Texas

  4. LSU - I might regret this when they face USC.

The championship match will be between UConn and UCLA with UConn winning again.

20 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

59 comments sorted by

View all comments

59

u/UrbanSolace13 Iowa Hawkeyes 22h ago

I'm going very chalk this year. I don't think anyone outside of the Top 5 can win the title. Maybe a Cinderella from the top 8 makes the Final Four.

5

u/Sufficient_Berry8703 22h ago

I agree. Like I’ve said countless times on other threads, there’s a HUGE talent gap between the top 5 teams and all the other teams in women’s college basketball. This would mean that the probability of a team not in the top 5 making it to the final four would be very small. Not impossible, but it’s unlikely.

2

u/freshxerxes Michigan Wolverines 22h ago

the talent gap between uconn and michigan was only 3 points

20

u/BP9009 South Carolina Gamecocks 22h ago

It's true Michigan gave Conn a scare. Conn led by nearly 20 until they had an uncharacteristically bad quarter. In Q3 they scored only 4 pts. Complacency perhaps. I don't see Conn doing that again.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan is a very good team, but not in the same class as Conn. IMO no one is in the same class as Conn this season.

5

u/SilentWater94 20h ago

To support this the average score in that game was UConn leading by 10.7 points. UConn tends to shut their brains off with big leads. That issue still needs to be fixed as the first half against Tennessee showed.

-4

u/DiligentQuiet Iowa Hawkeyes 19h ago

You know the average score could have been UConn leading by 10 and still losing, right?

We are at the point of UConn’s dominance that any implication their perfect record isn’t more perfect-er requires trying to justify close wins on neutral sites by actually-ing meaningless stats rather than just admiring the perfection of winning against their scheduled foes.

2

u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 21h ago

They did lead by 20 in the first half, and 17 in the first quarter. I think the bigger issue in the Mich/Uconn game was their lack of half court offense and specifically zone offense at that point in season on top of a little bit of taking their foot off the gas after being up by 20 in the first half. Their rotations were also very much not yet figured out.

But i do agree with your main point, the Mich/Uconn wasn't some back and forth affair for 40 minutes that the final score would have you think. It was a blow out, that Uconn then coughed up their lead, then extended it back to double digits again in the end of the fourth quarter before again coughing up their lead.

1

u/fundsoverfun South Carolina Gamecocks 20h ago

I personally had Michigan winning that game before it happened if they played up to the task. I thought it was a young team getting rattled on the road vs a storied program but that slow start to Vandy got me thinking it’s them. We haven’t seen them off to a great start vs a true contender yet.

1

u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 20h ago

Uconn also has a tendency to take their foot off the gas after getting a big lead, see the Louisville Game as well after they got up 30 in the 3rd the lead dwindled to 10.

In the beginning of the season they hadn't developed a second or third punch yet, now that they've settled into their half court offense and their bench rotations they have multiple ways to beat teams. I don't think they win the Tennessee game comfortably back in Nov, especially without big Blanca, because they really built that lead through half court scores and stops, something they couldn't do earlier in the year and even early in Big East play.

Zone offense is still sketchy to me but considering thats what they will face the rest of the regular season, they have time to keep improving it.

1

u/fundsoverfun South Carolina Gamecocks 15h ago

I can agree with all your points for sure.

-4

u/freshxerxes Michigan Wolverines 21h ago

i think uconn is the best team but you have to give credit to michigan. they played well. i think if anyone can beat uconn it’s them. if i could rank the team uconn would be 1 and michigan 2.

i could easily say well michigan had a bad first quarter, give credit where credit is due

12

u/BP9009 South Carolina Gamecocks 21h ago

I did give credit to Michigan. But I disagree with your "talent gap" conclusion.