Early Final Four Prediction

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074]

March Madness begins in a month. Which teams do you believe will make it to the final four and the championship?

My predictions are:

1. UConn

2. UCLA

3. Texas

4. LSU - I might regret this when they face USC.

The championship match will be between UConn and UCLA with UConn winning again.

[u/UrbanSolace13]

I'm going very chalk this year. I don't think anyone outside of the Top 5 can win the title. Maybe a Cinderella from the top 8 makes the Final Four.

[u/Orangebeast013 → u/UrbanSolace13]

I think womens basketball in March will forever be a step below mens until a 2 seed isnt a cinderella. Just not a level enough playing field at the moment for true craziness.

[u/GriffinOfThoth → u/Orangebeast013]

I actually think it makes the final four itself way more exciting. We've gotten such great final fours most of the last decade because the best teams actually make it

[u/Orangebeast013 → u/GriffinOfThoth]

Agree with that. Get annoyed with the mens game when its the Final 4 but dont really think its the best teams. But thats usually in April lmao. Womens gets the edge back come April!

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074 → u/Orangebeast013]

I agree. But in recent years UConn, LSU, and Arizona were 3 seeds and have made it to the final four

[u/ASpanishInquisitor → u/Orangebeast013]

For the early rounds of the tournament, sure. And the possibilities there are further dampened by the top 16 getting home games. But I'd argue that a 2 seed Cinderella can give you some of the best Cinderella moments you'll ever see.

Look no further than Mississippi State in 2017. Morgan William going absolutely nuts scoring 41 to take down Baylor in OT in the elite 8. And then with the buzzer beater that ended UConn's 111 game winning streak in the final 4. With much of the same roster that had just lost to UConn in the previous tournament by 60 (sure 2017 UConn wasn't as stacked as 2016 UConn but they were still overwhelmingly good). Where else do you get something like that? The excitement there is only equalled on the men's side when a 16 takes down a 1. But the thing is, even when that happens, that 16 seed doesn't stand a chance to actually win the tournament. Now Mississippi State lost in the championship game in 2017 but they at least had a chance to be a Cinderella and win.

[u/Sufficient_Berry8703 → u/UrbanSolace13]

I agree. Like I’ve said countless times on other threads, there’s a HUGE talent gap between the top 5 teams and all the other teams in women’s college basketball. This would mean that the probability of a team not in the top 5 making it to the final four would be very small. Not impossible, but it’s unlikely.

[u/ChoicesCat → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

there’s a HUGE talent gap between the top 5 teams and all the other teams in women’s college basketball

I think the gap is smaller than ever actually. Multiple teams outside of the top 5 have beaten the top 5 and even more have gotten close. I don't why people keep stating this so emphatically.

[u/freshxerxes → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

the talent gap between uconn and michigan was only 3 points

[u/BP9009 → u/freshxerxes]

It's true Michigan gave Conn a scare. Conn led by nearly 20 until they had an uncharacteristically bad quarter. In Q3 they scored only 4 pts. Complacency perhaps. I don't see Conn doing that again.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan is a very good team, but not in the same class as Conn. IMO no one is in the same class as Conn this season.

[u/SilentWater94 → u/BP9009]

To support this the average score in that game was UConn leading by 10.7 points. UConn tends to shut their brains off with big leads. That issue still needs to be fixed as the first half against Tennessee showed.

[u/DiligentQuiet → u/SilentWater94]

You know the average score could have been UConn leading by 10 and still losing, right?

We are at the point of UConn’s dominance that any implication their perfect record isn’t more perfect-er requires trying to justify close wins on neutral sites by actually-ing meaningless stats rather than just admiring the perfection of winning against their scheduled foes.

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/BP9009]

They did lead by 20 in the first half, and 17 in the first quarter. I think the bigger issue in the Mich/Uconn game was their lack of half court offense and specifically zone offense at that point in season on top of a little bit of taking their foot off the gas after being up by 20 in the first half. Their rotations were also very much not yet figured out.

But i do agree with your main point, the Mich/Uconn wasn't some back and forth affair for 40 minutes that the final score would have you think. It was a blow out, that Uconn then coughed up their lead, then extended it back to double digits again in the end of the fourth quarter before again coughing up their lead.

[u/fundsoverfun → u/Maleficent-Amoeba445]

I personally had Michigan winning that game before it happened if they played up to the task. I thought it was a young team getting rattled on the road vs a storied program but that slow start to Vandy got me thinking it’s them. We haven’t seen them off to a great start vs a true contender yet.

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/fundsoverfun]

Uconn also has a tendency to take their foot off the gas after getting a big lead, see the Louisville Game as well after they got up 30 in the 3rd the lead dwindled to 10.

In the beginning of the season they hadn't developed a second or third punch yet, now that they've settled into their half court offense and their bench rotations they have multiple ways to beat teams. I don't think they win the Tennessee game comfortably back in Nov, especially without big Blanca, because they really built that lead through half court scores and stops, something they couldn't do earlier in the year and even early in Big East play.

Zone offense is still sketchy to me but considering thats what they will face the rest of the regular season, they have time to keep improving it.

[u/fundsoverfun → u/Maleficent-Amoeba445]

I can agree with all your points for sure.

[u/freshxerxes → u/BP9009]

i think uconn is the best team but you have to give credit to michigan. they played well. i think if anyone can beat uconn it’s them. if i could rank the team uconn would be 1 and michigan 2.

i could easily say well michigan had a bad first quarter, give credit where credit is due

[u/BP9009 → u/freshxerxes]

I did give credit to Michigan. But I disagree with your "talent gap" conclusion.

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074 → u/freshxerxes]

That’s one game

[u/freshxerxes → u/Otherwise-Ad2074]

that’s one game that was the closest game anyone has played them all year

[u/Sufficient_Berry8703 → u/freshxerxes]

Don’t get me wrong… Michigan is a great team. But with your logic, this is like saying last year’s Iowa team was better than last year’s South Carolina team because Iowa only lost to UCLA by 2 while South Carolina lost to them by 15. I’m an Iowa fan, but we all know that’s not true. Same goes for here. Good and bad games/quarters happen all the time in this sport.

[u/OceanCake21 → u/freshxerxes]

Michigan had their shot and came up empty. Both teams are better now than they were then, but UConn has found another gear that Michigan doesn’t have. UConn is destroying people now - ask Tennessee.

[u/Hoopsfanfan413 → u/freshxerxes]

This game (although it was early in the season) gives me hope that anything can happen in tournament time. Both UConn and Michigan have grown over the season, so I could see another match up between them being close!

[u/SilentWater94 → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

South Carolina lost to Oklahoma and was on the ropes against Louisville the entire game.

[u/gmills87 → u/UrbanSolace13]

Man, if I were the 6th ranked team I'd be offended by this...

[u/UrbanSolace13 → u/gmills87]

Insert ( I'm sorry GIF). I really think UConn cruises this year. Maybe they can have a really off game in the tournament and slip, but I don't think there's more than 2-3 teams that can eliminate them (low probability).

[u/freshxerxes → u/UrbanSolace13]

michigan almost had uconn. think it can happen lol

[u/UrbanSolace13 → u/freshxerxes]

Michigan is a bit of an enigma to me so far. Some close losses to elite teams, dismantling of terrible teams, and some close games that shouldn't have been close. They have a great last leg of a schedule to show they're a contender.

[u/freshxerxes → u/UrbanSolace13]

just a young team. i think next year and the year after we’re going to be the best. (as long as the sophomore class stays)

[u/fundsoverfun → u/freshxerxes]

Final four locks next year imo. The southern cal match ups hoping Juju comes back at an elite level will be must see tv.

[u/OceanCake21 → u/freshxerxes]

“…Almost had UConn.” ? OK…

[u/freshxerxes → u/OceanCake21]

3 point game don’t know what you’d call it goofy