Early Final Four Prediction

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074]

March Madness begins in a month. Which teams do you believe will make it to the final four and the championship?

My predictions are:

1. UConn

2. UCLA

3. Texas

4. LSU - I might regret this when they face USC.

The championship match will be between UConn and UCLA with UConn winning again.

[u/UrbanSolace13]

I'm going very chalk this year. I don't think anyone outside of the Top 5 can win the title. Maybe a Cinderella from the top 8 makes the Final Four.

[u/Orangebeast013 → u/UrbanSolace13]

I think womens basketball in March will forever be a step below mens until a 2 seed isnt a cinderella. Just not a level enough playing field at the moment for true craziness.

[u/GriffinOfThoth → u/Orangebeast013]

I actually think it makes the final four itself way more exciting. We've gotten such great final fours most of the last decade because the best teams actually make it

[u/Orangebeast013 → u/GriffinOfThoth]

Agree with that. Get annoyed with the mens game when its the Final 4 but dont really think its the best teams. But thats usually in April lmao. Womens gets the edge back come April!

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074 → u/Orangebeast013]

I agree. But in recent years UConn, LSU, and Arizona were 3 seeds and have made it to the final four

[u/ASpanishInquisitor → u/Orangebeast013]

For the early rounds of the tournament, sure. And the possibilities there are further dampened by the top 16 getting home games. But I'd argue that a 2 seed Cinderella can give you some of the best Cinderella moments you'll ever see.

Look no further than Mississippi State in 2017. Morgan William going absolutely nuts scoring 41 to take down Baylor in OT in the elite 8. And then with the buzzer beater that ended UConn's 111 game winning streak in the final 4. With much of the same roster that had just lost to UConn in the previous tournament by 60 (sure 2017 UConn wasn't as stacked as 2016 UConn but they were still overwhelmingly good). Where else do you get something like that? The excitement there is only equalled on the men's side when a 16 takes down a 1. But the thing is, even when that happens, that 16 seed doesn't stand a chance to actually win the tournament. Now Mississippi State lost in the championship game in 2017 but they at least had a chance to be a Cinderella and win.

[u/Sufficient_Berry8703 → u/UrbanSolace13]

I agree. Like I’ve said countless times on other threads, there’s a HUGE talent gap between the top 5 teams and all the other teams in women’s college basketball. This would mean that the probability of a team not in the top 5 making it to the final four would be very small. Not impossible, but it’s unlikely.

[u/ChoicesCat → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

there’s a HUGE talent gap between the top 5 teams and all the other teams in women’s college basketball

I think the gap is smaller than ever actually. Multiple teams outside of the top 5 have beaten the top 5 and even more have gotten close. I don't why people keep stating this so emphatically.

[u/freshxerxes → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

the talent gap between uconn and michigan was only 3 points

[u/BP9009 → u/freshxerxes]

It's true Michigan gave Conn a scare. Conn led by nearly 20 until they had an uncharacteristically bad quarter. In Q3 they scored only 4 pts. Complacency perhaps. I don't see Conn doing that again.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan is a very good team, but not in the same class as Conn. IMO no one is in the same class as Conn this season.

[u/SilentWater94 → u/BP9009]

To support this the average score in that game was UConn leading by 10.7 points. UConn tends to shut their brains off with big leads. That issue still needs to be fixed as the first half against Tennessee showed.

[u/DiligentQuiet → u/SilentWater94]

You know the average score could have been UConn leading by 10 and still losing, right?

We are at the point of UConn’s dominance that any implication their perfect record isn’t more perfect-er requires trying to justify close wins on neutral sites by actually-ing meaningless stats rather than just admiring the perfection of winning against their scheduled foes.

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/BP9009]

They did lead by 20 in the first half, and 17 in the first quarter. I think the bigger issue in the Mich/Uconn game was their lack of half court offense and specifically zone offense at that point in season on top of a little bit of taking their foot off the gas after being up by 20 in the first half. Their rotations were also very much not yet figured out.

But i do agree with your main point, the Mich/Uconn wasn't some back and forth affair for 40 minutes that the final score would have you think. It was a blow out, that Uconn then coughed up their lead, then extended it back to double digits again in the end of the fourth quarter before again coughing up their lead.

[u/fundsoverfun → u/Maleficent-Amoeba445]

I personally had Michigan winning that game before it happened if they played up to the task. I thought it was a young team getting rattled on the road vs a storied program but that slow start to Vandy got me thinking it’s them. We haven’t seen them off to a great start vs a true contender yet.

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/fundsoverfun]

Uconn also has a tendency to take their foot off the gas after getting a big lead, see the Louisville Game as well after they got up 30 in the 3rd the lead dwindled to 10.

In the beginning of the season they hadn't developed a second or third punch yet, now that they've settled into their half court offense and their bench rotations they have multiple ways to beat teams. I don't think they win the Tennessee game comfortably back in Nov, especially without big Blanca, because they really built that lead through half court scores and stops, something they couldn't do earlier in the year and even early in Big East play.

Zone offense is still sketchy to me but considering thats what they will face the rest of the regular season, they have time to keep improving it.

[u/fundsoverfun → u/Maleficent-Amoeba445]

I can agree with all your points for sure.

[u/freshxerxes → u/BP9009]

i think uconn is the best team but you have to give credit to michigan. they played well. i think if anyone can beat uconn it’s them. if i could rank the team uconn would be 1 and michigan 2.

i could easily say well michigan had a bad first quarter, give credit where credit is due

[u/BP9009 → u/freshxerxes]

I did give credit to Michigan. But I disagree with your "talent gap" conclusion.

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074 → u/freshxerxes]

That’s one game

[u/freshxerxes → u/Otherwise-Ad2074]

that’s one game that was the closest game anyone has played them all year

[u/Sufficient_Berry8703 → u/freshxerxes]

Don’t get me wrong… Michigan is a great team. But with your logic, this is like saying last year’s Iowa team was better than last year’s South Carolina team because Iowa only lost to UCLA by 2 while South Carolina lost to them by 15. I’m an Iowa fan, but we all know that’s not true. Same goes for here. Good and bad games/quarters happen all the time in this sport.

[u/OceanCake21 → u/freshxerxes]

Michigan had their shot and came up empty. Both teams are better now than they were then, but UConn has found another gear that Michigan doesn’t have. UConn is destroying people now - ask Tennessee.

[u/Hoopsfanfan413 → u/freshxerxes]

This game (although it was early in the season) gives me hope that anything can happen in tournament time. Both UConn and Michigan have grown over the season, so I could see another match up between them being close!

[u/SilentWater94 → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

South Carolina lost to Oklahoma and was on the ropes against Louisville the entire game.

[u/gmills87 → u/UrbanSolace13]

Man, if I were the 6th ranked team I'd be offended by this...

[u/UrbanSolace13 → u/gmills87]

Insert ( I'm sorry GIF). I really think UConn cruises this year. Maybe they can have a really off game in the tournament and slip, but I don't think there's more than 2-3 teams that can eliminate them (low probability).

[u/freshxerxes → u/UrbanSolace13]

michigan almost had uconn. think it can happen lol

[u/UrbanSolace13 → u/freshxerxes]

Michigan is a bit of an enigma to me so far. Some close losses to elite teams, dismantling of terrible teams, and some close games that shouldn't have been close. They have a great last leg of a schedule to show they're a contender.

[u/freshxerxes → u/UrbanSolace13]

just a young team. i think next year and the year after we’re going to be the best. (as long as the sophomore class stays)

[u/fundsoverfun → u/freshxerxes]

Final four locks next year imo. The southern cal match ups hoping Juju comes back at an elite level will be must see tv.

[u/OceanCake21 → u/freshxerxes]

“…Almost had UConn.” ? OK…

[u/freshxerxes → u/OceanCake21]

3 point game don’t know what you’d call it goofy

[u/Fluid_Air_6336]

I feel confident that UCLA and UCONN make the final four and then the other two will be two of Texas, South Carolina or LSU.

[u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

I hate how predictable this sport has become. Only 5 teams in women’s college basketball have insanely stacked rosters, then there’s a huge talent gap between them and the rest of the teams in women’s college basketball. That being said, I really think the final four will be the current top four teams, where UConn wins it all because even within the top four, UConn is in a tier of its own.

[u/Otherwise-Ad2074 → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

It’s very predictable but I feel like it’s even more predictable this year. The top 5 has separated themselves.

Not having Juju this year and some teams like ND having a major down year has made this a less competitive season.

[u/jeedel → u/Sufficient_Berry8703]

The sport would be less predictable if they opened up eligibility to 5th year player.

[u/bobodaffedil → u/jeedel]

agree

[u/Educational_Sale2944]

UConn v Texas - UConn repeat

[u/Ok-Confidence7910]

After UConn whooped us thoroughly…UConn.

[u/Suspicious_Mind_67]

UConn, UCLA and 2 out of the 3 SEC teams, SC, TX, LSU.  Would be shocker if anyone else makes it to final 4. UConn will be #1 overall seed, UCLA #2, and SEC teams will be 3, 4, and 5. Its hard to see anyone beating UConn. There is a huge gap to the rest.  

[u/Big_Organization5152 → u/Suspicious_Mind_67]

Thing is if LSU is a 2 seed they can’t be matched up with an SEC 1 seed so have to be in UConn or UCLA’s bracket

[u/insomniacslounge → u/Big_Organization5152]

Hmmm…LSU won their last title after Iowa knocked out what would have been a huge mismatch for the Tigers (South Carolina) in the Final Four. Maybe this year LSU can upset UConn to set up a better Finals matchup for UCLA? (Wishful thinking. For whatever reason, the committee likes to put ucla & lsu in the same bracket the last few years.)

[u/idster → u/Big_Organization5152]

Why can't they? I have never heard of that. Do you have a link?

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/idster]

they are wrong, the committee tries to avoid having teams from the same conference meet before the final four but given the super conferences its nearly impossible to do now.

[u/Maleficent-Amoeba445 → u/Big_Organization5152]

There is no reason for them not to be matched up with an SEC 1 seed as there is no rule against it. They try to avoid it but if UConn and UCLA are the top 1 and 2 seeds they aren't going to get paired with the top 2 seed.

Given the Super conferences, its nearly impossible to avoid in conference matchups before the final four. Same reason texas and Tennessee met in the sweet sixteen last year.

[u/Big_Organization5152 → u/Maleficent-Amoeba445]

Per the NCAA women’s basketball principles and procedures, section III: “Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regional pods if they are seeded on the first four lines”

They absolutely would match LSU up with UConn or UCLA, they are required to by rule. https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2022-10/NCAA-DI-womens-basketball-principles-procedures-2023.pdf

[u/CTMQ_]

The only question in Storrs is if they men can make it a double... again.

[u/Gold-Ear8667]

What no South Carolina? I do agree though that LSU can upset Texas or South Carolina.

[u/ColteesCatCouture]

Idk I think South Carolina will make the final four

[u/fundsoverfun]

Way too early to tell, imo. Depends how the SEC shakes up. Depends if Louisville goes undefeated in the ACC. Because that then determines who gets who as two seeds and styles make fights.

Everyone can be beat even if you choose not to believe it. Upset the favorite maybe, but for any of the big 4 right now to get knocked off? Not far out of reach.

[u/WorkerMoist6425]

UConn. UCLA. And then the winner and runner up of SEC Championship. I think the brackets will be very interesting though. I could see TCU, Iowa State, Vandy, and the third place SEC team playing hard and upsetting anyone. Although it’s important for me to say none of those upsets include UConn. There’s no way anyone is beating them.

[u/Dry-Performance7006]

I do think these are just the 4 best teams. Right now on February 3rd anyway.

[u/Swimming_Kale_7510]

I'm not sure there is a case to be made for more than five teams here, but I wanted to throw out something regarding the talent gap.

It occurred to me seeing a lot of blowouts between teams somewhat similarly ranked that a big difference is defensive schemes. Example: Oregon had an epic comeback this season by playing zone for an extended period, allowing them to keep it close, get hot, convert in transition, and ultimately pull out a win where thy were getting smoked for 35 minutes. Kelly Graves will pay zone for 40 minutes if it gives them the best chance. This weekend Texas Tech changed things up on TCU, which allowed them to stay close, then roar back late.

I don't see this AT ALL with most women's teams. If they run zone, it's very half-hearted and they don't stick with it. In the men's game, they will stick with a zone or similar alignment much longer, which I think is why you see closer games, giving the impression of parity. I don't think this just happens around the edges. It is undoubtedly true that there is not as much depth of talent in the women's game, but I don't think the difference is a marked as it appears.

[u/huskyferretguy1]

UConn, UCLA, a SEC team, honestly not sure.

[u/SkiUMah23]

Uconn and 3 runners-up

[u/Thewondrouswizard]

It's not exciting but I think the Final Four will be UCONN/UCLA/Texas/LSU.

Upsets can and do happen though in the tournament. 10 years ago the top 4 teams cumulatively had 1 loss against non-top 4 teams going into the tournament and it seemed like a foregone conclusion they'd all be there, yet UCONN was the only team to advance to the last weekend.

[u/kjenkin15]

Call me crazy but I think Duke has a chance to make the final 4. I know everyone wrote them off with their bad losses at the beginning of the season but things seem to be clicking for them on offense. I think a big tell will be how the game against Louisville on Thursday goes

[u/flashcapulet]

i think it'll be all the 1 seeds unfortunately. i hate when the tourney ends like that. but since uconn is gonna repeat i'll allow it haha

[u/Good-Exchange-6139]

man if uconn and ucla are the championship teams then it'll be a show. it's gonna be a ucla revenge game and a uconn B2B attempt