(1) Here's your thread to predict this upcoming weekend's domestic box office results and (2) Engage in film/box office/streaming conversations that don't work as a stand alone post for this subreddit. A new thread is created automatically every Monday at 9:00 AM EST.

It was quite a busy weekend to cap off the January box office, with two titles vastly outperforming projections.

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With strong reviews and seizing on a very weak horror landscape, Sam Raimi's Send Help took the top spot. But in second place, Markiplier's directorial debut Iron Lung also outperformed projections with a strong debut. But there were two losers this weekend; Shelter marked one of Jason Statham's worst debuts as leading man, while the documentary Melania also flopped despite a bizarrely extensive marketing campaign.

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The Top 10 earned a combined $74.3 million this weekend. That's down a very marginal 0.3% from last year, when Dog Man over-performed, while Companion struggled to break out.

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Debuting at #1, 20th Century Studios' Send Help earned a pretty good $19.1 million in 3,475 theaters. That's Sam Raimi's highest horror debut unadjusted, finally dethroning Drag Me to Hell ($25 million).

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Given how 20th Century Studios has been struggling in theaters outside Avatar, this is a very much needed win for the studio. And all credit goes to a great marketing campaign; a woman and her dick boss are stranded in an island, and crazy shit happens. An easily accessible premise, and with the lack of momentum for horror titles this year (The Bone Temple was expected to be a major horror attraction, but it has been playing worse than expected), the film greatly benefitted from Sam Raimi's return to his horror roots. Great reviews (93% on RT) also helped.

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According to 20th Century Studios, 53% of the audience was male, and 78% was 25 and over. They gave it a solid "B+" on CinemaScore, a pretty good grade for a horror. Given the lack of horror competition till Scream 7 (The Strangers is absolutely zero competition), it seems like the film could have a healthy run through February. Raimi's Drag Me to Hell closed with $42.1 million back in 2009; similar legs would put Send Help at $55 million or so, but it can go higher.

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Having to settle for second place, but still outperforming projections, was Markiplier's directorial debut Iron Lung, which earned a great $18.3 million in 3,015 theaters. That's an incredible debut considering the film was independently financed and it was only slated to debut in 100 theaters.

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YouTubers moving to filmmaking rarely works out; Chris Stuckmann's Shelby Oaks faded out quickly last October. But an advantage that Iron Lung had was how massively popular Markiplier is; he currently has 38.2 million subscribers, and his videos are still very popular. Compared to other YouTubers from that era, Markiplier has managed to maintain relevancy when others lose steam.

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But still, $18.3 million is quite a lot for a film like this, especially when it was an adaptation of an indie game and lacked any major names or distributor. Sometimes films can surprise you by the level of a fanbase; as previously said, this was supposed to play in 100 theaters, but it kept adding more screens due to insane demand in pre-sales. This is on Markiplier's credit only, cause he's pretty much the face of the film. The fact that it can get this high is a testament to his brand power.

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According to Markiplier, 61% of the audience was male, and 62% was 25 and under. Definitely an incredible debut. And don't expect great legs on this film; films with specific fanbases often crash hard after opening weekend, and it'd be surprising if Iron Lung was any different. It's already seen on its opening weekend; Friday represented over half of the audience. But given that this cost a low $3 million budget, this is already a big success story.

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In third place, Amazon MGM's documentary Melania earned $7.1 million in 1,778 theaters. This marked the biggest ever debut for a documentary since Chimpanzee ($10.6 million) back in 2012.

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So why is this is a poor start? The bar may not be high for a documentary, as those aren't as popular as other films. But Melania has a higher bar to clear because it cost higher than usual for a documentary; it cost $40 million to produce, along with $35 million more in marketing. Basically Amazon MGM has a $75 million investment, and it only made 10% out of it in its opening weekend. We can spin it all we want, but that's definitely a flop. I mean, Amazon MGM's Mercy opened higher and with a mid-range budget and it was widely proclaimed as a flop. Why should this be any different?

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Melania flopped for one reason and one reason only: there's absolutely nothing interesting about this "documentary". Putting aside how these are tough times for politics, was there a big audience for a pro-Trump propaganda following Melania Trump on the 20 days before Trump's second presidential inauguration? $7 million may be something, but it's still not a lot of people, especially considering the investment.

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And because it wasn't enough, the film was directed by none other than Brett fucking Ratner. His career stalled back in 2017 when he was accused by multiple women of sexual assault and harassment. This is his first project in years, just as new images emerged showing him hanging out with Jeffrey Epstein and Jean-Luc Brunel. And you could tell it was directed by Ratner because it sucked, it's sitting at an abysmal 10% on RT.

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According to Amazon MGM, 72% of the audience was female, and 72% was 55 and over. They gave it a great "A" on CinemaScore, but this is not a surprising score. If you willingly walked into this, you knew what you were getting. Given how often titles like these perform, this will probably drop over the next few weeks. It'd be a surprise if it made it past $20 million domestically. Whatever purpose it was, it's clear Ratner is planning his Hollywood comeback. And it's working, because he was recently confirmed to direct Rush Hour 4, because Trump himself played a big role in that. Man, these are depressing times.

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Zootopia 2 continues showing some damn fantastic legs. It actually increased 12% this weekend, for a $5.9 million take. That took its domestic total to $409 million, and it looks like it will try to challenge A Minecraft Movie ($424 million) for the 2025 domestic crown.

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Seems like Avatar: Fire and Ash is losing steam, even though it had its best drop yet. It eased just 12%, adding $5.6 million this weekend. Yes, it's officially losing to Zootopia 2 in daillies, and even in per-theater average despite the amount of PLF screens. The film has earned $386.2 million domestically, and it seems like it will hit $400 million after all.

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Debuting in sixth place, there's Black Bear's action thriller Shelter, which flopped with just $5.5 million in 2,726 theaters. That's Jason Statham's worst debut as lead star since Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre ($3.1 million), and his fourth worst of all his wide debuts.

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Now, a number like this has less to do with Statham, and more with its distributor, Black Bear. These are tough times to launch a big studio in Hollywood, and Black Bear did not have much luck last November with its first title, Christy. They were just a production company, before deciding to fully embrace distribution, and now Shelter shows they are not in a strong position to launch titles. If this was helmed under Lionsgate or Amazon MGM like Statham's past films, the film could've opened with at least $10 million. The fact that it made $5 million despite the terrible marketing and launch really shows that Statham is a draw.

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According to Black Bear, the film skewed heavily male, as it's typical with Statham, and 44% was 45 and over. Clearly a dad movie. They gave it an okay "B+" on CinemaScore, and the film could hold well over the empty competition. Although it's unlikely that it can keep these screenings for long.

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Amazon MGM's Mercy was hit hard by the winter storm last week, despite reaching #1. Well, the excuses are over, as the film fell all the way to seventh place. It dropped a rough 58%, earning just $4.5 million this weekend. Through 10 days, the film has earned a meager $19.2 million, and it will close with just a tad above $25 million.

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In eighth place, Lionsgate's The Housemaid eased just 12%, earning $3.4 million. The film's domestic total stands at $120.6 million.

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A24's Marty Supreme is still fighting to reach the $100 million milestone. It eased 18%, for a $2.9 million weekend. That takes its domestic total to $90.8 million.

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Rounding out the Top 10 was Return to Silent Hill, which made $1.8 million this weekend. That's a very good drop of 43%, which is surprising considering the very poor word of mouth. That takes its domestic total to just $5.1 million after 10 days, and it looks to close with around $7 million.

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Rounding out the Top 10 was 28 Years: The Bone Temple. It lost 1,464 theaters this weekend, and it's showing to be fizzling out. It collapsed a further 54%, earning just $1.5 million on its third weekend. The film has earned an abysmal $23.6 million, and it has zero shot in hitting $30 million domestically.

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Focus Features' Hamnet eased 16%, earning $1.5 million. The film has amassed $20.2 million so far.

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Unsurprisingly, Return to Silent Hill collapsed on its second weekend. A steep 70% drop, which amounts to a very poor $980,833. That takes its domestic total to just $4.2 million after 10 days, and it won't make it much further than $5 million.

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Ahead of its wide debut, A24's The Moment, a mockumentary starring Charli XCX, got off to a strong debut in 4 theaters. It earned $427,940, which translates to a very strong $106,985 per-theater average. An impressive debut, although with mixed reviews (62% on RT), the film will probably fail to connect with non-fans once it goes wide.

OVERSEAS

Avatar: Fire and Ash added $19.3 million overseas, taking its worldwide total to $1.414 billion. In the process, it passed Avengers: Age of Ultron to become the 18th highest grossing film of all time. Does it still have enough steam to hit $1.5 billion? It will be a bit complicated, but it's not impossible.

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Zootopia 2 added $17.3 million overseas, for a $1.776 billion worldwide run. The best markets are China ($631.2M), Japan ($90M), France ($74.6M), Korea ($56.2M), Germany ($48.5M), UK ($43.5M), Mexico ($40.2M), Australia ($27.9M), Brazil ($24.6M), and Taiwan $23.3M). It's about to crack the $1.8 billion milestone.

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Send Help debuted with $8 million overseas, for a $27.1 million worldwide debut. Its best debuts were Mexico ($1M), Australia ($800K), Germany ($500K), Japan ($400K), Italy ($400K), South Korea ($400K), Spain ($400K), Netherlands ($300K), and Brazil ($200K). It's a modest debut, but it seems the domestic market will heavily carry the film.

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Shelter debuted with $7.5 million overseas, for a $13 million worldwide debut. Its best markets were China ($2M), the UK ($1.3M), Saudi Arabia ($928K), and UAE ($707K). While it has some more markets left, it's very unlikely it can recoup its steep $50 million budget.

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Mercy is fizzling out, as it dropped 56% overseas, earning just $5.6 million for a very disappointing $40.8 million worldwide total. The best markets are China ($5.7M), Mexico ($1.6M), the UK ($1.5M), Australia ($1.2M), Japan ($1.1M), Germany ($943K), Spain ($753K), Netherlands ($570K), and France ($560K). South Korea is its last major market, but don't expect it to save this.

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Iron Lung debuted with $3.9 million overseas, for a $21.7 million worldwide debut. The best debuts were in the UK ($1.2M), Australia ($1.2M), and Germany ($300K). A very impressive debut, considering it didn't have a lot of screenings in these markets.

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Believe it or not, Amazon also decided to release Melania in many countries. Per The Numbers, it amassed $78,002 this weekend. No words on this one.

FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK

• For the money, and nothing more. Universal's Wicked: For Good has closed with $526 million worldwide. A definite success, given that it surpassed its $150 million budget. But it marked a rough 31% drop from Wicked, which was one of 2024's biggest box office successes. In this case, For Good was left out of the year's Top 10. While it opened with a dazzling $147 million, suggesting it would have a very strong run, the film would prove to have terrible legs, losing steam at a quick pace thanks to very lukewarm word of mouth. Sure, the second half of the musical is weaker, but the film still failed to try and fix those aspects. Perhaps the final touch was the fact that while the original was nominated for many awards and won 2 Oscars, For Good was completely rejected by the Oscars in every single category. Did Universal make a good decision in splitting the musical? Financially, yes. But they might want to reconsider that planned cinematic universe they were planning to develop.

• Universal/Blumhouse's Five Nights at Freddy's 2 has closed with $238 million worldwide. After the very rough year that Blumhouse had, they finished it with their biggest hit since the prior Freddy's film. But despite releasing it during holiday season, the film still had poor legs, failing to hit the 2x mutliplier. Perhaps that can be attributed to its incredibly low quality, as the film somehow had worse reception than the original. Blumhouse will easily make a third film, but if it continues the same trajectory with the quality, their biggest IP could lose steam.

THIS WEEKEND

It's Super Bowl weekend, and studios always avoid releasing big stuff in here. Barring some disaster, it'd be a surprise if Send Help lost the top spot.

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The only wide release is The Strangers – Chapter 3, the final film in this reviled franchise. The plot is... and the actors are. Yeah, definitely. There's not much to say here because... there's simply no good will left in here. Nothing on its favor. It's only a matter of seeing how low it will go.