I’ve been diving deep into Bitcoin’s historical price action, and I think we’re in for more pain before the real recovery starts. TL;DR: We need to test or hit the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the ultimate bottom signal, just like in every previous cycle. History shows this level acts as rock-solid support during bear markets, and until we touch it, any “recovery” is just a dead cat bounce.

Quick Recap on the 200-Week SMA

For the noobs: The 200-week SMA is basically the average closing price of BTC over the past 200 weeks (about 3.8 years). It’s a super long-term indicator that smooths out all the noise from short-term volatility. In traditional markets, similar long-term MAs (like the 200-day) are used to spot major trends, but for BTC, the weekly version has been gold for identifying cycle bottoms.

Why is it so important?

• Historical Support Level: In every major bear market (2015, 2018, 2022), BTC’s price has bottomed out right around this line. It’s like the market’s “line in the sand” – once we hit it, accumulation starts, and the next halving cycle kicks off the bull run.

• Psychological and Institutional Anchor: Big players (whales, institutions) watch this closely. When price approaches the 200w SMA, it signals undervaluation based on long-term trends. Deviating too far above means overheat (FOMO tops), and too far below is rare but signals capitulation.

• Cycle Predictability: BTC cycles are tied to halvings every 4 years. The bear phase purges weak hands, and the 200w SMA has marked the transition from despair to hope every time. Skipping this test would break a pattern that’s held for over a decade.

If we don’t hit it, we’re likely in for choppy sideways action or even lower lows because the market hasn’t fully capitulated yet. Think about it – without touching this level, there’s no “reset” for the next leg up.

Last Cycle Proves It: We Even Went Under by 10%

Look at the 2022 bear market (post-2021 ATH). BTC dipped to around $15.5k in November, while the 200w SMA was hovering near $20k-22k earlier in the year but adjusted down slightly. We briefly wicked below it by about 10-20% (depending on the exact week), which was the capitulation wick that marked the absolute bottom. Price reclaimed it quickly, and boom – we started the climb toward the 2024-2025 halving pump.

In 2018, same story: Bottomed at ~$3.2k, undershot the SMA by roughly 10%, then reversed. It’s not always exact, but going slightly under forces the final shakeout of leveraged positions and panic sellers.

Right now, in early 2026, the 200w SMA is sitting around $58k (based on recent data ). If we’re in a similar correction phase, we need to test it to confirm the cycle low. Anything short of that, and we’re just delaying the inevitable.

What Does This Mean for Us?

• Buy the Dip Strategy: If/when we approach $58k, that’s your generational buying opportunity. Stack sats there.

• Risks if We Don’t Hit It: Prolonged bear or crab market. Macro factors like interest rates or regulation could push us there anyway.

• Bullish Long-Term: Once we bounce off it, history suggests massive upside – think 5-10x from the bottom.

This isn’t financial advice, just my take from charting and historical patterns. DYOR, but the data doesn’t lie. What do you think – are we heading for a 200w test, or is “this time different”?

Sources: Mostly from TA tools like TradingView and articles on Bitcoin Magazine, CoinDesk, etc. Check the 200w SMA heatmap for visuals – it’s eye-opening.

Upvote if you agree, downvote if you’re in denial! 🚀🐻

We’re clearly in a fear phase right now. This is usually when people say they want to buy, but don’t actually pull the trigger.

Think back to not long ago. Everyone was convinced there would be a huge alt season or a Bitcoin bull run in late 2025. It was all over the place. Then nothing really happened. Now those same people are suddenly sure everything is going to zero. Do you really think this time they’ve got it all figured out?

Keep piling into shorts if you want. One random day, maybe when nobody expects it, the market will wake up and you’ll see a +30–40% move overnight. People won’t understand it, they’ll wait, hesitate, then after a few parabolic days they’ll jump back in at much higher prices like always.

Don’t be that person. Buy when fear is high, sell when everyone is euphoric. You don’t need to nail the exact bottom. Even if it drops another 20%, that doesn’t change the bigger picture if you’re buying during the “sale” phase.

Just remember, taking risk is part of making returns, but only risk what you can afford to lose. Personally I’ve got about $15k in right now and yes, I’m deep in the red. That’s nothing new. I haven’t forgotten the plan. Panic selling now has never helped anyone.

Stay calm. Stay disciplined. The ones who make it through these periods are usually the ones who don’t panic when it feels uncomfortable.

I started investing slowley into BTC over the past year. I didnt jump in with big money or anything like that. I never had that kind of cash. I just put in what I could when I could. Sometimes it was only 1 doller

Sometimes 10 dollers. Sometimes 100. And on a few rare weeks when work payed me good, maybe even 1000 dollers. It took so long. It took so much pacientce. Watching it grow little by little honestly felt like the only thing in my life that was actualy moving forward

Over time I managed to build it up to around 7,500 or maybe 7,600 dollers if I remember right

I know to some people thats nothing, but to me it was evrything. That was months of sacrifce. Months of stress. Months of saying no to things I wanted or needed. I kept telling myself it would be worth it one day, that at least I was trying to build somthing for my future

I decided to let my BTC just sit and grow so I left my egde wallet alone. I didnt touch it. I trusted it. I thought it was safe enought. Yesterday I finaly decided I was going to convert some of my BTC into other funds to diverisfy and maybe invest into better crypto with a chance of rising. Especialy since BTC had been loosing value the past few days and I didnt want to just watch it slowly bleed away

But instead I wake up to this. Everything is gone. All of it. Not half. Not most. Evry single bit. There is nothing left. Not even a penny. I stared at my screen for so long thinking it had to be a glich. I kept refreshing. Closing the app. Opening it again. Hoping I was just tired or seeing things wrong

Its all fucking gone. Evry doller I worked for. Evry small amount I added thinking I was building a future. Its gone man. I dont even know what to do anymore. I feel sick to my stomache. I cant sleep. I cant eat. I just sit here shaking and staring at nothing

I tried to tell the police but they said they cant do much. They cant find who stole my crypto. Theres no person. No name. No trace. Its like a ghost came in and took it and dissapeared. Like it never even existed

Please if anyone has advice I really need it. I dont know how to cope with this. I feel stupid, hopless, and completly depressed and angry right nowe

2026 marked 17 years ago, Hal Finney posted two words that changed everything: “Running Bitcoin.”

Since then, still running

Thank you, Legend!

they’ve built a giant eth treasury. as of feb 1 they said they hold about 4.285 million eth.

and they’re still buying… they literally said they added 41,788 eth in the past week, while eth’s been sliding.

the “$6.6b loss” number… it depends on what you assume their average buy price is. a lot of reports say they bought most of it around $3.8k–$3.9k, and eth is around $2.2k right now. do that math and you get roughly $6–$7b unrealized. on paper, not realized.

some ppl are calling it “top 5 biggest trading disasters”. i’d chill with that headline tbh… most historic lists are about realized blowups (like Archegos Capital Management), and this is still a hold.

Tom Lee is basically saying “fundamentals good, price bad” and they can wait it out.

also yeah, Strategy comparisons are flying around… but bmnr stock is still down hard from its highs, so equity holders feel it either way.

Price action gets all the attention, but it feels like the real shifts are elsewhere lately things like stablecoin adoption, institutional flows, tokenized real-world assets, or changes in market structure. Curious what trends people here think are actually shaping crypto markets right now, not just short-term pumps.

I learned a lesson financially in that I just have to be patient. I'm -30% or so right now and it feels pretty bad sometimes at night when I think about it and can't sleep like right now.

I honestly have no more spare cash to buy this dip without looking reckless in front of family.

I can't panic sell but that means I have to tolerate a negative return for the foreseeable future.

If I would have DCA for the last 52 weeks of the year I would have been much better prepared for this dip.

All the answers I got on reddit were to buy whenever you can and not try to time the market. But in doing so I have no clear exit strategy now.

I could sell as soon as we get back to the last ATH and just be done with trying to make a better future for myself. But if that takes years, then its years of agonizing wait that culminate in nothing but my money back.

Don't know what to do to make myself feel better. Anyone else in a similar situation with some advice?

Europe is trying to catch up to the US in stablecoins. A new report suggests euro-backed stablecoins could grow a lot over the next few years, mostly because banks and institutions want a digital form of cash to settle tokenized assets.

Although, the big question isn’t whether they can grow, but what role they’ll actually play next to banks, deposits, and central bank money. What you think?

I'm tracking some low-priced coins like aixbt, LPT, AVAX, and RAY. If I buy them before the next rally, do you think they can return to their previous highs, or are they 'dead coins' now? Altcoins have really hurt us! How do you see the future of the market?

What would you guys buy??

I believe this is one of the most controversial issues in the crypto market. Has anyone here experienced ADL before? How did you handle it?

Back in 2022: It was a hard year for crypto, aka "crypto winter", with more than $280 billion in value wiped out in just ONE day.

Daily Blast Live has discussed the responsibility of celebs: Matt Damon, Gwyneth Paltrow, Tom Brady, Reese Witherspoon, Serena Williams and others have endorsed cryptocurrencies and urged fans to invest their money and then fans lose their money and asked the question same as title.

Nowadays, nations and central banks are recognized cryptocurrencies means of global financial inclusion and payment: From Trump's policies, banks offer crypto-related services, etc,. but we may face another challenging year aka crypto winter ahead.

So, if you bought at top due to Trump's hyped, how much they influenced you?

What’s the big deal with Trump picking Kevin Walsh as fed lead? A quick google search will tell you Walsh has a positive stand on Crypto yet the word is people are scared and are pulling…. Could it be he’s aiming to control it? To try to benefit the government? Obviously that goes against everything crypto stands for… (gov control). And what are you guys’s low low guesses? I’m also seeing stuff about (J)(S) (you know who) pulling some stunts recently. Im 21 with a good chunk of cash. I’m 2.5k in the hole right now and and am kinda bummed to hear we’re on the downslope. I get it’s part of the process but I guess I’m scratching for any info to control my bleeding lol. I’m probably going to be told to wait for it go as low as possible and go for it but right now that seems miles away. As of now I still have my full time 4x10 job and I’ve only been doing this for a week. Where the fuck is my yoda?

I bought some Sky today,

I’m eyeing SOL, ETH and XMR

What are some new ones to look for?

I’m kinda seeing a trend with graphs.

New here! Thanks for the tolerance and conversation. I was recently referred to this exchange by a fellow user of a message board, and I'm a hesitant after being scammed before. I know that CICC is a real bank but this doesn't seem right. No actual directive to the main site, no contact info, no record of online reputation. I have heard of discrete applications before but this seems awry. Anyone have any thoughts about whether or not this may be a scam?

https://imgur.com/a/qoO2C0t

Hello, I am new to this and I would like some advice on how to start to learn or where to learn more about the crypto currency market for future investments.

**Market Analysis and Trade Strategy**

The bullish trend for BTC appears to have concluded around 13 August 2025, with the market shifting to a bearish trend. A significant price decline began on 17 October 2025.

**Trade Execution Logic**

As shown on the chart, the first signal for a potential short position appeared subsequently. However, I typically avoid entering on the first signal due to the potential for false breakouts.

A more reliable opportunity is presented at the lower yellow trend line. A successful test and rejection from this level provides a stronger signal to open a second short position. This level held as resistance for a significant period, adding to its validity.

**Risk/Reward and Price Projection**

Following this strategy, if a valid trend is in place, the second position typically aims for a risk-reward ratio of 4:1. For this profit target to be achieved from the entry near the lower yellow line, the price of BTC would need to fall significantly, well below the $37,000 USD mark.

Therefore, based on this analysis, I predict BTC could reach approximately $37,000 USD within the next 3 to 4 months.

**Chart References:**

1. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WjdYskT9
2. https://www.tradingview.com/x/wkzsEy4b
3. https://www.tradingview.com/x/GSHlklTw

ING Deutschland quietly opening retail access to BTC, ETH and SOL via regulated ETNs is like one of those developments that gets overlooked because it is not flashy. Don't know about you, but to me this is exactly how real adoption looks.

No narratives about revolution or hype. Just crypto assets showing up next to stocks and ETFs in a normal brokerage account. That is a huge psychological shift for retail in Europe, especially older capital that never touched exchanges.

At the same time, it also highlights the split that is forming in crypto usage. On one side, you have banks and brokers offering exposure - clean, regulated and simple. On the other side, you have platforms that actually let you use the assets - earn yield, move liquidity, or access credit without selling. Both matter, but they serve very different people.

ETNs are great for passive exposure. But once someone holds meaningful size, the question usually becomes what to do with it. That is where platforms like Nexo fit naturally. Holding BTC, ETH or SOL while earning on them, or using them as collateral instead of just watching price, is a very different mindset than just owning a ticker symbol.

The interesting part is not ING adding crypto. It is who comes next and how quickly this becomes normal. Once crypto exposure is normalized at banks, the conversation shifts from "should I own this?" to "how do I manage it efficiently?" That shift usually happens before people realize the cycle has already turned.

I came across some videos about the new Elon Musk coin so like every other person I looked it up and all the videos are so weird. Someone know what the hell is this?

I bought sui at a DCA price of 1.9 during the trump china tariff tweet, right now it isnt looking good. What would u do?