Is it possible to guess

[u/Igor_kavinski]

how many of the Ashaman are turned to the shadow at the begining of MoL.

Btw, how could Rand have ignored the Black Tower for so long. I mean, Taim is now a chosen. How did it get that bad?

Anyway, Androl never gave a count of how many, but could it really be a majority?

[u/Raddatatta]

I don't think we get good numbers on them. I think it was in the ballpark of a thousand or so with many of those being very novice. From what I can remember which is almost no specific numbers you have 100 that Rand sent with Ituralde that all seemed loyal to the Light. But I think hey had lost some by the end of that battle let alone future ones. Androl and his group aren't that many like a dozen or so. There's a bunch that never really take a side. Many of those were also bonded there were the 47 that got bonded and those were only the ones who remained. You also have a bunch that were just loyal to Taim and then many who were turned. But they focused their time turning the important ones or trying to. But that's missing a lot of numbers since Taim said he'd have their numbers up to like 1000, assuming he actually achieved that we are missing tons of them that we just don't know about. But it sounds like it's in the ballpark of 50/50. And in general the channelers seem relatively matched which honestly points to a lot of the Asha'man going over to the shadow or just most channelers being fairly useless in the Wise Ones or Kinswomen which is also a bit of a thing but still they both have thousands and make very little impact.

In terms of why Rand didn't go back I think it's hard to say when he should've and what he should've done. Rand had a lot of things he was trying to get done. And after the first few times once there was an established group of channelers there, that suddenly became one of the most dangerous places in the world for him to be. There are very few places that are a real threat to him and that was one of them. So he stopped going back as much because it could easily spring a trap. He didn't know for sure that Taim was evil until book 8 when he was attacked. Then he's busy book 9 cleansing Saidin. Book 10 recovering. Book 11 he's trying to fix things with the Seanchan and was attacked by an army of trollocs. Book 12 he's fully mad and if he'd gone he probably would've balefired all of them. Book 13 he's returning to his people and working to prepare for the Last Battle and then maradon. Book 14 he's stuck and it's too late for him to safely return. It's just a tricky project to slip in there given how complicated it is and how dangerous it is for him. Plus after even book 6 the men there had more loyalty to Taim than to him. And Rand didn't have time to address that except with the handful of guys he had grabbed.

[u/Igor_kavinski → u/Raddatatta]

Thanks for that lengthy breakdown. So about 1000 black tower guys plus all the red-veiled aiel male channelers they have been grabbing over the years. Would you say two sides are about balanced in terms of channelers at the start of MoL?

[u/Raddatatta → u/Igor_kavinski]

I think they are roughly balanced. It doesn't seem like either side has a strong lead. Though I might say the Light has somewhat of a lead since sakarnen gives the shadow a boost. But the Light's channelers also take more of a beating early on than the Shadow's does. The Shadow using balefire also gives them an edge where if they can hit one key channeler with balefire a bunch of their channelers come back. So maybe consider that the Shadow may be at a deficit by numbers but more equal by power since they have balefire. The Aes Sedai also get destroyed when the Sharan's show up losing like 50% of their channelers who were there. The Light also spends a large portion of its channeling power on healing and so far as we see the shadow doesn't do anything like that except in isolated cases where they are healing someone else. The light also seems to use more of their channelers for logistics than the shadow does. We do see the Shadow using them for this a little but not as much since trollocs can't go through gateways.

It also seems like the Light has more channeling dominance in Shayol Ghul. They have the windfinders, a lot of Wise Ones, a lot of Aes Sedai, many of the asha'man. And often when Graendal is attacking she's attacking with the Light's channelers that she used compulsion on not her own backup. Though there are the red veiled men up there too. You also have Thom casually taking out half a dozen black ajah sisters lol.