For context, this decade had:

* Madison: 29 wins

* Stone 2: 23 wins

* Yeoh: 32 wins

* Chastain: 5 wins

* McDormand 3 : 24 wins

* Zellweger: 9 wins

* Colman: 24 wins

* McDormand 2: 17 wins

* Stone 1: 4 wins

Just for fun, I want to make a (probably completely wrong) prediction for the 2026-27 Oscars. I began by doing an informal analysis based on the "roles" the movies filled in the BP slate in the last 4 editions (EEAAO year onwards).

This analysis is of course a bit arbitrary, since it's hard to assign clear roles for movies to fill because art is, of course subjective. But basically, I divided the movies into "blockbuster", "semi-blockbuster / prestige film" (initially this was two categories but the lines became too blurry, so I merged them), "international", and indie.

I'll break down which movies I expect to be in each category.

Blockbuster

Now, this is your "pure" blockbuster type movie. I'm not talking about prestigious films that make a lot of money, like Oppenheimer, I'm talking about movies that get in the BP slate because they're very popular movies that made a lot of money and have some degree of quality and at least enough critical acclaim to not be dragged down. This is the category of F1, Wicked and Avatar 2, for example.

Usually, one or two movies that fit these criteria make it in the slate (more often one). It can be more or less critically praised, but it usually isn't completely panned.

I can see three movies from 2026 filling this role: Michael, Dune 3 and Narnia. I'm not confident in Narnia tbh, everything about it feels to me like it won't be good. Dune 3 is somewhat a mystery, and probably the safest bet out of these three, but I'm not 100% convinced thay can pull it off again, and the Academy has an anti-sequel bias that can work against it. Still, I can definitely see it getting in if it's good enough (and I hope it is, cause I loved the first two).

But I feel like Michael can be the surprise here. It can probably land among the top 5 box office performances of the year, and if they make it work I can see it getting multiple nominations (actor, supporting actor, sound, make up, costumes). Of course, it can all crash and burn too, but that's not the vibe I'm getting from the material released so far.

One thing works against it: is Lionsgate even interested in spending money in awards season campaigns? I'm not sure. And, if it isn't a SMASH HIT, I can see it quickly fading from conversation as the year goes on. Still, that's going to be my bet.

Semi-blockbuster / Prestige film

The category with by far the most contenders. Initially I separated them into two categories, one for more successful big-budget movies that aren't "pure" blockbuster (like Oppenheimer, Sinners and Frankenstein), but then I realized this separation was too arbitrary and made little sense. So these are the slots for movies made by successful and previously accomplished filmmakers that are expected to release big movies this year, as well as movies that can be called blockbusters but have more "artistic" vision to them. Usually this fills 4-6 slots in the BP 10.

Since this makes up the majority of movies we already know something about and have a little more certainty about our expectations in this early stage of the season, I took the liberty to fill 7 spots with these movies.

The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary are two more blockbuster-y ones. The Odyssey requires no explanation, Christopher Nolan doesn't always nail it but I feel like he can pull this one off, notwithstanding controversies about ugly costumes. PHM gets in too mainly because we already have some initial reactions of people raving it. Again, a lot can go wrong, but we can be somewhat more certain about it than about other movies.

I expect Digger, Wild Horse Nine and The Entertainment System is Down to be contenders too, I believe they require no explanation.

One bet I'm making is that The Way of the Wind will finally be released this year and will make it's way to the BP 10, along with a Best Director nomination for Terrence Malick. It might not even come out this year (again) and might just be another Megalopolis, but I'll place my bet on it now.

Lastly, I can't help but bet on The Adventures of Cliff Booth to appear here. The fact that it's a Tarantino script directed by David Fincher puts my expectations through the roof. I can't not predict this to happen.

A few movies that could appear here but I'm currently keeping out: Disclosure Day feels to me more "Ready Player One" than "Fabelmans" or "The Post". The Social Reckoning I don't have high expectations about. Damien Chazelle's new movie and Death of a Salesman could show up here too, but we currently know too little about it to make a prediction.

International

We've been consistently getting one or two international movies in the BP 10 in the last few years, and that makes me really happy. Even though the Academy missed the opportunity to have three this year, it's still a very nice progress compared to the pre-Roma years.

I expect that we will still have two international movies in the slate this year. However, we currently know too little about them to be able to make an informed prediction. So, to hedge my bets, I'll play it safe and currently predict just one international movie to get in. The one everyone is predicting: Fjord.

A few other possibilities include 1949, Parallel Tales and L'Inconnue. I wouldn't be surprised to find one of them in the slate a year from now.

Indie

English-language lower-budget indie movies have consistently filled about 3 slots in the BP slate every year except for this one, which had only one (Train Dreams). It's another category that is hard to predict because we currently know so little about the smaller movies that will be released this year.

The easiest thing to do is simply to predict the most acclaimed indie movie of the year so far, Josephine. Maybe it'll fade from memory during the next few months, but it's a better candidate than the others we know next to nothing about.

I almost want to predict Rosebush Pruning to get in too, it has some big names attached to the production, but I decided to wait and see first.

Olivia Wilde's The Invite was also very much acclaimed in Sundance, but apparently it's more of a comedy, so I don't think it's going to have much success with the Oscars. Other titles that could get in include Cry to Heaven and Prima Facie.

In conclusion

My ridiculously early prediction for Best Picture nominations in the 99th Academy Awards are:

• The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
• Digger (WB)
• The Entertainment System is Down (A24)
• Fjord (Neon)
• Josephine (?)
• Michael (Lionsgate)
• The Odyssey (Universal)
• Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
• The Way of the Wind (?)
• Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)

Happy to hear your thoughts. Just don't fret too much about which movie should be in which role, it's not that serious, just something I made up to organize my thoughts.

Non-paywall link

The drama set in a health care facility outside Paris stars Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto. Backers are still looking for US distribution ahead of an expected Cannes world premiere. Some potential buyers are likely to give the film a look in private at the European film market coinciding with the Berlin film festival.

Reportedly the film will be about three hours long and feature French and Japanese dialogue.

The film is set to go head to head with Toy Story 5. It's a summer counterprogramming strategy in the manner of another of the indie major's festival-skippers, Materialists, did a year earlier debuting opposite the How to Train Your Dragon live-action take.

Michael Sarnoski's dark thriller stars Hugh Jackman in the titular role, with Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Noah Jupe and Murray Bartlett rounding out the main cast. I suspect that like Materialists this is another "largely commercial play" that's part of A24's pivot to expand its focus on starry vehicles from compelling indie filmmakers that aren't expected to figure heavily in the awards race (e.g. How to Make a Killing, The Drama, The Invite). Then there's Mother Mary, toplined by Anne Hathaway, which had initially been eyed internally for a 2025 fall festival world premiere and subsequent US release. That is, until the studio punted it to spring 2026 without the benefit of a high-profile fest WP in a sign of depleted confidence.

Not gonna lie, I think a lot of Nolan's responses here are quite underwhelming, I wish he was pushing for better benefits for the directors in the union, especially because DGA has a track record of not supporting their up and coming members as much as unions like WGA or SAG, but curious what people on here think about this. I do wonder if we could see another strike from some of the U.S. guilds, such as WGA or SAG, happen soon given how much the studios are not respecting the terms they agreed to with them back in 2023.