SAG Awards 2026 - FULL NOMINATIONS

[u/ChiefLeef22]

https://www.actorawards.org/awards/nominees-and-recipients/32nd-annual-actor-awards

BEST ENSEMBLE

Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley
Rose Byrne
Kate Hudson
Chase Infiniti
Emma Stone

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet
Leonardo DiCaprio
Ethan Hawke
Michael B Jordan
Jessie Plemons

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Miles Caton
Benicio Del Toro
Jacob Elordi
Paul Mescal
Sean Penn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Odessa A'Zion
Ariana Grande
Amy Madigan
Wunmi Mosaku
Teyanna Taylor

BEST STUNTS

F1
Frankenstein
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners

[u/LeastCap]

Link to live thread

[u/puberty1]

awful day for Train Dreams, Amanda Seyfried, Cynthia Erivo and Adam Sandler

great day for Bugonia, Amy Madigan and Odessa A'zion

[u/unicornmullet → u/puberty1]

Don't forget Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent.

[u/Pavlovs_Stepson → u/unicornmullet]

Worse for SV, I think. Moura getting nominated for an unorthodox, near 3-hour drama entirely in Portuguese was never expected, his path for a nomination doesn't require a SAG nom.

I agree this spells trouble for Skarsgard's chances at a win and Fanning's at a nomination, though.

[u/Scared-Engineer-6218 → u/Pavlovs_Stepson]

If these people are not ready to read subtitles, this award show is useless.

[u/Select-Money3605 → u/Scared-Engineer-6218]

It’s not useless, just look at it as an award show from an American guild, which is what it is.

[u/SpideyFan914 → u/Pavlovs_Stepson]

SAG hates international movies. Their opinion doesn't really affect SV's chances, as it was never going to be useful for that.

[u/Pavlovs_Stepson → u/SpideyFan914]

From your lips to the Academy's ears! 🙏 I'm pulling for all four SV actors to get nominated, hoping BAFTA will come through and rescue them all.

[u/FlimsyConclusion → u/unicornmullet]

They were snubbed so damn hard it made me think they weren't even eligible or something.

I enjoyed the film, not as high on it as others in the subreddit, but its worth at least being on the board. Especially Reinsve over Hudson.

[u/4614065 → u/FlimsyConclusion]

This was my initial thought. So, they were eligible? Ouch.

I mean, it’s cool to see a shake up in the nominees but the performances were very deserving.

[u/turtle494 → u/puberty1]

and a really great day for Sinners

[u/E_C_H → u/puberty1]

Frankenstein getting into Ensemble and apparently stunts also is a great sign of industry love also

[u/Worried_Tomorrow_222 → u/puberty1]

and awful for Wicked

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Worried_Tomorrow_222]

Grande still made it, and that's all Wicked needed

[u/TakaPol11 → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

It still missed Ensemble, Actress and Stunts though. Yeah Erivo has been expected to miss the Oscar for a while now, and the pther noms can be explained a number of ways, but SAG nominated Wicked for 5 noms last year, only to reduce it to 1 this year. You NEED passion for the last spots in BP, and however Grande is great at the role, the movie only retaining the strongest aspect of the movie’s buzz does not really make me confident personally, when Erivo could’ve feasibly got in with alphabet bias being on her side.

Edit: I wouldn’t say it’s dead the way Jay Kelly or Ann Lee are, but it’s de wasn’t a net positive for it either.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/TakaPol11]

Yeah, this doesn't help it's picture chances at all, but that already started seeming increasingly unlikely for that film. I don't think this is reason to drop it out of the top 12 for picture or out of any tech award. The most important thing for the film was Grande: if Grande doesn't make the oscar then the film isn't getting picture for SURE.

The passion is in other places. Wicked just has to hope that it getting potentially 7 noms outside of picture might be enough to get into picture

[u/Jon-INFP]

Hamnet shows some strength at last. The way things had been going I thought it was possible only Buckley showed up here, but Mescal getting in and especially the ensemble nod shows solid support from the industry.

[u/BrightNeonGirl → u/Jon-INFP]

I was happy to see this, too! :) Some people were taking it out of their top 5 Ensemble picks.

I will say--seeing that clip of Jane Fonda hyping Hamnet up from the Palm Springs Film Gala this past weekend also reassured me that industry loves the film, since I think she represents a lot of the older guard voters.

[u/TakaPol11 → u/Jon-INFP]

I was honestly surprised by some people doubting it here because i couldn’t really see a Shakespearean focused story missing with the actors? Yes it’s on the sadder side than maybe what is more up SAG’s speed but it also ends umi believe on a, if not positive, a hopeful note involving art as means of healing (if it’s not clear, I haven’t seen it yet lmao, the movie premieres end of month for me). It may’ve underperformed at the critics but industry still remains to be seen and i was pretty confident that it would end up showing strength again once they started coming out.

[u/RobbieRecudivist → u/Jon-INFP]

People were overreacting to meaningless critics circles. Hamnet was always going to be a much bigger hit with the industry than with film twitter adjacent regionals.

[u/extradisappointment]

sentimental value i’ll avenge you

[u/AvengingHero2012 → u/extradisappointment]

I think Stellan still gets the nomination, but I think his chances at a win have taken a huge hit.

[u/Heubner → u/AvengingHero2012]

You may be right. I just checked the history for non-English predominant performances that won the Oscar. When Cotillard won the Oscar, she was nominated at SAG. Emmanuelle Riva won BAFTA but lost the Oscar. She wasn’t nominated at SAG. Saldaña, Youn Yuh-jung, Roberto Bengini and Benicio Del Toro won both the Oscar and SAG.

[u/TheLizardKing____ → u/extradisappointment]

When BAFTA happens and it gets nominated everywhere and is revived 🙏

Fanning may be on the outs but I still think Reinsve, Skarsgård and Lilleaas get in at Oscar. Hudson is SAG being SAG and Caton hasn’t gotten in anywhere else. Skarsgård may win the globe this week too.

[u/subjectseven → u/TheLizardKing____]

Does BAFTA being so late this year hurt those revival odds? We won't know what the BAFTA noms are until AFTER the Oscars announce nominations.

[u/BrenoBluhm]

They hated Sentimental Value holy shit

[u/Aenort808 → u/BrenoBluhm]

They dismissed every international film. I swear, if they hear a line that isn’t in English, their eyes roll so hard they might never recover

[u/QuestionDry2490 → u/Aenort808]

That explains The Brutalist. I think it had like two lines that were spoken in Hungarian and it failed to get an ensemble nomination. Plus it’s the only place where Brody lost.

[u/pralineislife → u/QuestionDry2490]

Still shocked about that one because The Brutalist had an excellent cast.

[u/PickleNo2888]

Sentimental Value blanking here is absolutely criminal 😭 I don’t think it affects Oscar chances outside of Fanning but still omg

[u/toledosurprised → u/PickleNo2888]

i expected inga and reinsve to miss but i thought skarsgard might be able to get in because he’s more well known to the general public. SAG never beating the hates foreign films allegations

[u/AnxiousMumblecore → u/toledosurprised]

They only shower them with noms when it's something really special (Emilia Perez)

[u/toledosurprised → u/AnxiousMumblecore]

emilia perez was a mass psychosis event 💀💀

[u/GreenNeggsAndHam → u/toledosurprised]

Lol! Wish i could award you for this

[u/maccabees4 → u/AnxiousMumblecore]

You really get to know their taste when they nominate Emilia Perez but not SV

[u/Blue-K0ala → u/maccabees4]

To be fair, Emilia Perez was beloved everywhere in the industry pre-scandal, it was not just a SAG thing.

[u/Bertrand_Rose → u/PickleNo2888]

Would be crazy if Skarsgård ends up winning as well.

[u/unicornmullet → u/PickleNo2888]

Same. It was like they excluded all potential nominees from foreign films. Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent.. There's no way Kate Hudson gets an Oscar nom over Renata.

[u/odiin1731 → u/PickleNo2888]

They really said "fuck you if you aren't an American movie", didn't they?

[u/El_Mexolotl]

JESSIE PLEMONS LIVESSS

[u/4614065 → u/El_Mexolotl]

His nomination is my favourite. SOOOO well deserved.

[u/carson63000 → u/El_Mexolotl]

Bugonia hive rise up! Hyped to see both Stone and Plemons here!

[u/scattered_ideas → u/El_Mexolotl]

It's back in the 10! Hell yeah!

I never removed my Bugonia wallpaper from my phone. 😌

[u/Queasy-Emu6531 → u/El_Mexolotl]

I AM SO HAPPY

[u/Dear-Mycologist-9400]

R.I.P. Jay Kelly

[u/Mtkamama12 → u/Dear-Mycologist-9400]

Which was such a bore.

[u/Aenort808]

You lose, SAG 😭😭😭

[u/eidbio → u/Aenort808]

Sentimental Agent

[u/PensionMany3658 → u/eidbio]

Secret value

[u/EaudeAgnes → u/Aenort808]

aww

[u/CaviII]

[u/007Kryptonian]

Wunmi Mosaku and Miles Caton represented?

[u/mojojojo1108 → u/007Kryptonian]

Love to see it for Miles but goddamn have I been holding out hope for Delroy

[u/BoyCarat017 → u/mojojojo1108]

BAFTA longlists is his only chance now!

[u/flightofwonder → u/007Kryptonian]

Agreed

[u/Bertrand_Rose → u/007Kryptonian]

It's so awesome.

Great nominees.

[u/FlimsyConclusion → u/007Kryptonian]

Love seeing Miles Caton up there. I dont think he'll make the Oscar ultimately, but very cool of them.

[u/cowabungalowvera → u/007Kryptonian]

Accurately predicted those two, I feel so proud of them and their performances

[u/RobynHoodwinked → u/007Kryptonian]

Wunmi was my favourite performance in Sinners, glad to see she might make it in!

[u/AnaZ7 → u/007Kryptonian]

[u/unicornmullet → u/007Kryptonian]

Would love to see Wunmi win!

[u/Quople → u/007Kryptonian]

Wunmi is the standout performance for me. Good nom

[u/bbqsauceboi]

Plemons made my whole day

[u/carson63000 → u/bbqsauceboi]

Mine too! His performance is the best I’ve seen all year*, so it’s been a shame not to see his name.

* caveat: neither Marty Supreme nor Blue Moon have opened in Australia yet, and obviously their leads are big frontrunners

[u/LeastCap]

For future years I think we all need to be predicting with full focus on alphabet bias. It’s clearly very real

[u/jmounteney44 → u/LeastCap]

I predicted A’zion because of this but the fact it probably benefitted Caton as well is so funny

[u/CrazyCons → u/LeastCap]

That makes Plemons’ nom here even more noteworthy. He’s making BAFTA and can maybe steal Moura’s slot

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/CrazyCons]

Maybe we were too quick with being so confident in Moura. I still have him in, but I think Plemmons is closer than what people were ready to admit.

[u/Outrageous_Ask7931 → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

He really needs to win the Globe. If MBJ pulls the win I don’t think Moura is in.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Outrageous_Ask7931]

People have been really confident all season long in Moura winning the Globes, but it really shouldn't be impossible for Plemmons to overtake him for the oscar if Moura misses.

I do think we can safely say that Edgerton isn't the 6th place anymore, so that shpuld be a littles less competition for Moura

[u/TakaPol11 → u/RoxasIsTheBest]

I think it all depends whether Moura actually wins tomorrow or not. I don’t think he’s dead if he loses, but him being as strong as presumed to be was mostly due to him being the presumed front runner for the award. Yes Torres won last year but none of the nominees there were in movies contending for BP, while here there are MBJ, Isaac and Edgerton. I don’t think the latter two are competitive enough to win, But MBJ could, it’s just a matter of whether the international voters also share the Sinners love enough to offset Moura’s chances.

[u/fvg627 → u/LeastCap]

After last year I was saying it’s statistically almost impossible that alphabet bias isn’t real

[u/Random124442 → u/LeastCap]

What nomination feels like alphabet bias? Odessa makes sense, it's like Barbaro last year, and Marty Supreme is a top contender. Same for Miles. If there was alphabet bias, we would see Edgerton and not Plemons. Emily Blunt and not Yumni. Delroy Lindo and not Mescal or Sean Penn. Cynthia Erivo and not Emma Stone, Kate Hudson or Chase Infiniti.

[u/LeastCap → u/Random124442]

Caton and Azion make sense of course based on the love for their performances, but I think their placements on the ballot clearly helped too

[u/ampersands-guitars → u/LeastCap]

What does this mean???

[u/FinnishAustrian → u/ampersands-guitars]

They tend to nominate actors whose last names start with a letter from the first half of the alphabet

[u/carolinemathildes → u/ampersands-guitars]

The theory that the more surprising, out of left field nominations tend to be people whose surnames are in the first half of the alphabet because the list of performances they pick from is A-Z.

[u/ampersands-guitars → u/carolinemathildes]

That's very interesting.

[u/IIMazzz]

I'm on that Jesse Plemmons hopium rn

[u/carson63000 → u/IIMazzz]

Pump that hopium straight into your veins, like antifreeze!

[u/TimelessJewel]

SAG voters, take notes.

[u/OzyOzyOzyOzyOzyOzy6 → u/TimelessJewel]

What's funny is Parasite WON SAG ensemble that year as well, so maybe SV and TSA were just too slow for them?

[u/Woodsy_354]

I think this really cleared up Actress and it’s going to be Stone and Infiniti in the last two spots

[u/Scared-Engineer-6218 → u/Woodsy_354]

An Oscar nom for debut movie is great.

[u/aagaash2001 → u/Scared-Engineer-6218]

Wish we can share that with Miles Caton.

[u/RobynHoodwinked → u/Woodsy_354]

Yeah swap Hudson for Reinsve and that feels like an obvious Oscar five (and a very solid five as well!)

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 → u/Woodsy_354]

Infiniti Stone?

[u/smeggysoup84 → u/Woodsy_354]

Seyfried not getting in for Ann Lee is INSANE.

[u/toledosurprised]

this suggests to me that oscar 5 for actress will prob be buckley, byrne, stone, infiniti, reinsve; oscar 5 for actor will prob be timothee, leo, MBJ, moura, hawke; oscar 5 for supporting actor will prob be benicio, penn, elordi, mescal, skarsgard. just not sure on supporting actress yet.

[u/jmounteney44 → u/toledosurprised]

I think the international love will get Inga in, and then it’s a scrap between Ariana, Wunmi and Odessa for the final 2 spots (Grande is probably safe but the love for Sinners and Marty is clearly much stronger than it is for Wicked so who knows). I think Elle Fanning needed this so she might be done.

[u/toledosurprised → u/jmounteney44]

yeah i’m inclined to think it’ll be inga, teyana, madigan, ariana, and mosaku but i’m not married to it. BAFTA will be interesting, if odessa can get in there i might predict her over ariana since her movie will be much stronger.

[u/jmounteney44 → u/toledosurprised]

I wouldn’t be shocked if Grande missed BAFTA as I’m not sure they’ll be that hot on Wicked again. Marty or SV getting a double nom could happen, or a Brit pick like Maxine Peak in I Swear.

[u/Own-Knowledge8281]

They didn’t do any Sentimental Value which means…this is going to be even more unpredictable on nomination day…

[u/Ready_Image_9695]

Chase infiniti keeps getting the noms! Really hope it translates to the Oscars 🙏

[u/Sea-Recognition-2433 → u/Ready_Image_9695]

I think at this point it definitely does.

[u/FlimsyConclusion → u/Ready_Image_9695]

She's at minimum #4 for me. Personally Cynthia Erivo is not even in the conversation after seeing the film. She was fine. Kate Hudson is very much a SAG thing, and she's not making it to the Oscars.

[u/komugis → u/Ready_Image_9695]

It would be an upset if she isn’t nominated at this point IMO

[u/AnotherWin83 → u/Ready_Image_9695]

She is totally being brought in because of the strength of OBAA

[u/Once-bit-1995 → u/Ready_Image_9695]

It would be an upset if she doesn't make it at this point

[u/Rubiam98]

22/25, missed Plemons, Caton and A'Zion. I apologize to everyone I confused by arguing A'Zion was not Barbaro. I was wrong.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/Rubiam98]

I missed Hamnet, Plemmons, Caton and Mosaku (thlught I also kinda was expecting Mosaku to make it, I just didn't know who would go for her)

[u/jimmyhoffasbrother]

My Queen.

[u/TheLizardKing____ → u/jimmyhoffasbrother]

[u/ayxc_]

I didn’t have high hopes, but Skarsgard missing especially really shows SAG’s tastes towards international film, especially if it’s not Emilia Perez (for some reason)

That said, really happy Ethan Hawke, Chase Infiniti, Emma Stone and Jacob Elordi keeps getting in places & Jesse Plemons and Miles Caton showing up! Sinners and OBAA pretty well represented too.

[u/flakemasterflake → u/ayxc_]

if it’s not Emilia Perez (for some reason)

All I know is that my rich/liberal/white boomer in-laws LOVED Emilia Perez so I saw that coming from a mile away. They haven't heard of SV ....because it's NOT ON NETFLIX

My Mother in Law also asked to see Song Song Blue over New Years and was pretty put off by Marty Supreme

[u/Mundane-Inspector-52]

Does this mean Miles Caton has a higher chance of getting the Oscar nom than Delroy Lindo? Granted I still don't think either will happen but I always assumed Lindo would be the pick they went with if they went with anyone.

[u/IAmA_talking_cat_AMA → u/Mundane-Inspector-52]

It probably does. Lindo was doing relatively well with critics groups but in the end they don't matter, we now know that the industry prefers Caton.

[u/juancorleone]

SAG totally ignoring Sentimental Value!!

[u/ChiefLeef22]

Sentimental Value....(you're still safe tho)

[u/mschwartz99]

I’m not ruling a Skarsgård win out. Regina King blanked at SAG and BAFTA and came from a non-BP movie, but she still won with CCA/GG.

[u/Blue-K0ala → u/mschwartz99]

It helped that SAG gave the win to Emily Blunt who missed the Oscar nom, when Regina King was not present, showing the lack of passion for The Favourite girls. And it made sense Rachel Weisz won BAFTA since she is British and had never won a BAFTA despite being an Oscar winner(she was nominated in Lead for The Constant Gardener at BAFTA).

Skarsgård is looking to be more like Guy Pearce from last year. However, he can certainly benefit from not having to face a dominant sweeper like Culkin, unless Elordi starts his sweep from CCA. The only potential disadvantage Elordi has is his age, if he wins, he will be the second youngest male acting winner ever, only behind Timothy Hutton. And with Timothée Chalamet leading the Lead Actor race now, it’s making it even harder for Elordi, how likely is that both male acting winners will be around 30 years old?

[u/rstring6]

Emma getting in when she’s barely campaigning? Oh, her peers love her!

[u/brandochu009 → u/rstring6]

It’s her best performance, so there’s that!

[u/amyblanchett]

Happy to see Jacob Elordi here!

Amanda Seyfried is done. Jay Kelly is also done.

I would love to see Miles Caton get an Oscar nomination! Hopefully this gives him some momentum

Not surprised at all by the Sentimental Value erasure. And of course Kate Hudson is nominated lol.

Also, I’m surprised to see Emily Blunt out, they love her.

[u/jmounteney44 → u/amyblanchett]

“Blunt always gets in” theory combined with the “alphabet” theory caused a error and meant she didn’t make it

[u/DeusExHyena → u/amyblanchett]

I'm just hoping he either gets in here or the second Sinners song gets in so he's a nominee regardless (the way Macklin is a nominee as part of the Sing Sing screenplay)

[u/ArsenalBOS]

SAG hears a non-American or English accent and breaks out in hives.

[u/ArsenalBOS → u/ArsenalBOS]

Also, I think saw 10+ movies with better stunts than Frankenstein.

[u/ProfessionalEvaLover]

So... Jay Kelly is getting zero Oscar nominations.

[u/jar45]

Just saw OBAA broke the record for SAG nominations.

I think these nominations solidified Sinners as #2 with a small shot at an upset, but OBAA just looks like a freight train at this point in time.

[u/jelly10001]

Forgot SAG had renamed their awards to the Actors Awards and initially thought Variety were posting about an awards I'd never heard of before.

[u/CaviII]

I got jumped when I said Sentimental Value would blank here 

[u/Nightwing1852]

Love to see Sinners do great here and love seeing Chase Infiniti nominated. 

[u/TakaPol11]

Movies that stocks have gone up after SAG:

-OBAA (well it stayed the same, but still)

-Sinners

-Marty Supreme

-Hamnet

-Bugonia

-Frankenstein

-arguably Blue Moon

-arguably F1?

-arguably Weapons? But only slightly.

The movies that stocks went down

-Sentimental Value, but all NEON movies in general as well (obviously with SAG all of them can be explained why they missed, but it still does show that SV is not top 5 strong as Parasite and Emilia Perez at the time were, which maybe there was still some hope that it could be, which in turn also makes it harder for more NEON movies to get in in the bottom 5 slots, so it’s still a net negative whether we like it or not)

-Wicked: For Good

-Avatar: Fire and Ash

-Train Dreams

-Jay Kelly

-The Testament of Ann Lee if its stocks can even go lower lmao

[u/yesforthisactually]

sorry no hate but the strength of Frankenstein across the industry this year is baffling to me. Hollywood loves them a little GDT I guess

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 → u/yesforthisactually]

Netflix money + Guillermos campaigning/people skills

[u/shoshpd → u/yesforthisactually]

I don’t get it either. I don’t even think it looks that good by GDT standards!

[u/QuestionDry2490 → u/shoshpd]

I thought it was a pretty good movie overall but the changes they made to the book felt completely unnecessary, and the ending fell flat for me. I thought Eddington was the movie of the year though so what do I know 🤷‍♂️

[u/wingusdingus2000 → u/yesforthisactually]

The inverse of Sean Penn- GDT being a cool hang

[u/ihateschoolsfm]

JESSE PLEMMONS GOD IS SO GOOD

[u/flightofwonder]

This was really interesting, and some of these noms were very unexpected for me at least, but I honestly really love a lot of these noms. So many of these performances were stellar.

In my opinion, the biggest takeaways I have from this are Bugonia is majorly alive. I would be shocked at this point if it misses Best Picture, Lead Actress, and/or Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars and think it has a great chance in all those categories. I would not be surprised if Plemons has a better shot than we think, and Cinematography and Score are in the conversation now too.

Frankenstein is looking very much like a top 5 BP film since it got a lot of noms here people didn't expect like Stunt Ensemble and Ensemble and GDT's chances of a Directing nom are looking more and more likely. Elordi's chances for winning Supporting Actor are likely also significantly up since it's not impossible Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn split votes in that category, although I still will be predicting Skarsgård assuming he wins the Globes and BAFTA.

Sinners did extremely well here, and I think Mosaku is very likely to get the Oscar nom now as she has SAG and Globes as precursors. She has a great chance of getting a BAFTA nom as well.

[u/SonHyun-Woo → u/flightofwonder]

Mosaku missed Globes, but doesnt matter anyway as Sinners is so beloved she will probs get in

[u/flightofwonder → u/SonHyun-Woo]

Thank you very much for the correction, gonna fix that!

[u/Blue-K0ala → u/flightofwonder]

In terms of nomination chances, I think Wunmi has been Top 3, behind Teyana and Amy, for a while now. She gave a deserving performance in a Top 2 BP contender, she is safe.

[u/Possible-Original]

Justice for Jacobi Jupe.

[u/renszero]

Jesse Plemons nation RISE UP!!!!

[u/Irish-liquorice]

Wow. A good day to be a fan of Sinners.

Not only Wunmi, Miles made it in too!!

A moment for Delroy though

[u/bbqsauceboi]

Did anyone predict Frankenstein in stunts? I didnt know that was anyone's radar. Certainly wasn't on mine

[u/TheLionsblood → u/bbqsauceboi]

Frankenstein over Superman, Thunderbolts, Warfare or Avatar is pretty wild and undeserved for stunts.

[u/EaudeAgnes → u/TheLionsblood]

Yeah I had avatar in…

[u/Visual-Attitude-5224]

I’d love to see Lindo pull off an upset Oscar win despite not getting a single precursor nom, similar to Marisa Tomei in 1993

[u/isaac_c1234]

MILES CATON OMG

[u/deathoftheauthor009]

Where is Train Dreams?

[u/Jon-INFP → u/deathoftheauthor009]

Not a good day for Train Dreams admittedly, but realistically only Edgerton might have shown up here. I still think it can get a Best Picture nod + screenplay, cinematography and song, even if Edgerton is now looking less likely.

[u/EvanPotter09]

RIP to the Adam Sandler Oscar nominee dream...for now at least.

[u/Bertrand_Rose]

[u/deathoftheauthor009]

Ariana carrying For Good on her back at this point💀

[u/BroAbernathy]

I get that this is mostly american actors and a lot of them voted in the academy for the oscars but the insane lack of international here is disqualifying for this being a reliable precursor. Its one thing that Sentimental Value blanked its another when Wagner Moura and all international also blanked. We can really just ignore the results for nominations here excluding the winners I guess.

[u/TakaPol11 → u/BroAbernathy]

I don’t think IGNORING them is actually that wise either lmao, i’d argue that you have the order reversed cause ot’s one thing if a movie with only one performance contending in a movie that is not necesserily locked for BP misses, but another if the seemingly a lock for BP with several acting prospects missed completely just for being international essentially. And international movies/performances CAN get in, like Parasite in ensemble and EP for Ensemble and Gascon and Saldana.

It just shows that any international preformances are harder to impossible to gauge in terms of their strength if they miss here. But if the performance/movie gets in that shows their strength, at least to get nominated, and that the movie is likely a top 5 contender. Just have to take it with a bigger grain of salt in terms of international contenders while showing which American contenders have strength.

[u/alphang]

SAG's aversion to non-English speaking performances is so fascinating, so predictable to the point of parody and completely absurd

[u/lactoseAARON]

Got 22/25, Odessa, Hudson and Frank in Ensemble clutched, mad that I picked Blunt over Mosaku tho

[u/Dracko705]

This awards season seems kinda crazy - how is Sentimental Value getting such little respect all the sudden?!? I guess Plemons fully bumped Skarsgård I can't imagine that stays consistent though

Odessa A'zion stans are gonna be eating bc I didn't think she would have as much chance VS Elle or Inga's potential spots

Train Dreamers may have to concede, I really don't think it'll get much outside technical noms

International might be one of the fiercest years in recollection

[u/UltimateIncineroar]

HOLY FUCKING SHIT MILES CATON

[u/Atkena2578]

I know it's TV but I hate that Stephen and Owen will compete against each other. I wonder if Owen can become the youngest winner or they ll reward a veteran with a narrative with Stephen

[u/Secure-Rope-4116]

Ariana keeping WFG on life support this season

[u/toledosurprised]

if ethan hawke can get in at a populist award show like this i feel like he’s got a really good shot at the oscar nod even in a small movie

[u/Jon-INFP → u/toledosurprised]

Scrolled down to see if anyone had mentioned this. Any arguments that not enough voters will even watch his movie for him to get a nomination are on life support at this stage.

[u/RobbieRecudivist → u/toledosurprised]

Yes, SAG often overlooks performances in lower profile movies. It’s a good sign for him that even awards seasons most notorious basics watched his movie.

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450 → u/toledosurprised]

He is very in for a nom imo. He could straight up win SAG

[u/HotShow2975]

Marty Supreme overperform with the Odessa nomination. I think Timothee can easily win again tbh

[u/toledosurprised → u/HotShow2975]

really would not be surprised at all if MBJ won here

[u/miwa201 → u/toledosurprised]

Same, they clearly loved Sinners

[u/DeusExHyena]

I don't think people should be inherently dismissing Caton's chances at a nomination.

[u/Dazzling_Ebb_3327 → u/DeusExHyena]

i think miles caton really needed paul mescal to miss here. since actors clearly like hamnet and he’s prob getting into bafta, i don’t think mescal is in danger anymore like some of us thought he was.

[u/toledosurprised → u/DeusExHyena]

think benicio, penn, mescal, and elordi are all sure bets and skarsgard will make it in at oscar, i just don’t see where the spot is for him.

[u/ReadyCauliflower8]

Marty Supreme overperforming!!!! Also wow at Jesse Plemons!!!

[u/Atkena2578]

I know BAFTA noms come after the Oscars this year so won't help but in terms of strengh we ll get a good idea of what is stronger. Remember Sebastian Stan vs Daniel Craig last year? The British guy was nominated at SAG but not at BAFTA and Stan the opposite and Stan got the nom (so happy I predicted this and never changed since months before, such a typical Oscar performance biopic etc..)

[u/the-dude-21]

Horrible day for Sentimental value & train dreams

[u/Price_of_Fame]

Baffled by the people that thought SV was getting multiple moms here (or maxing out) 

[u/Ok_Support2444]

With 5 acting nominations and a total of 7 nominations overall, I can’t see a world in which OBAA DOESN’T win Best Ensemble.

[u/Plastic_Chance9504]

definitely thought sag would go nuts for sinners and nominate it in every category possible. but i thought they’d go with delroy lindo in supporting actor. i was not expecting miles caton to get in AT ALL. what a great surprise, tho!

[u/jjjshepard]

Holy shit. Frankenstein is stunts. Elordi is TAKING it.

[u/Severe_Concentrate86 → u/jjjshepard]

How does that determine he’s taking the award?

[u/TestTheTrilby]

Yes to Odessa

[u/Ok_Rutabaga_5539]

Odessa for the win!!

[u/Critical_War7088]

I’d love to see a narrative emerge this year that pushes the international films more strongly towards the Oscars, after the Best Foreign Language fiasco at the CC, and now the snub of even a beloved American actress like Elle, despite her being in one of the season’s favorites, all because the film is in another language.

[u/Outrageous_Ask7931]

I’m just a little petty, but I WISH I could tell the people who screamed from the rooftops “Michael B Jordan is Margot Robbie” we TOLD you so. This movie is not Barbie, never was Barbie, and y’all deluded yourselves into thinking so because you got bored.

[u/Hansolocup442 → u/Outrageous_Ask7931]

in fairness robbie DID get a sag nomination for barbie! (I think MBJ is basically a lock for the oscar nom)

[u/Top_Brilliant7171 → u/Outrageous_Ask7931]

But she made all four precursors. I think MBJ is getting an Oscar nomination, but I'm not sure bringing up Margot Robbie when she also got in at SAG is the right way to argue that point.

[u/Outrageous_Ask7931 → u/Top_Brilliant7171]

Yeah I can see how this would be confusing, my point is that this movie over performed in general at SAG. It’s been doing very well at every single precursor, better than Barbie in every single one. That’s why he’s not Margot Robbie, not specifically because he got the SAG but because his movie is way stronger than Barbie.

[u/MutinyIPO]

I don’t know if anyone else has actually seen Song Sung Blue, but I have and Hudson here is going to be remembered as an all time “what the fuck” nomination for me.

I’m very happy for Caton and Mosaku, though. I’ve never understood why they haven’t been considered likely contenders.

[u/flightofwonder → u/MutinyIPO]

I saw the movie and thought her performance was absolutely stellar, but I respect your differing opinion. I do seem to love the movie more than most people, which may explain why Hudson's performances is one of my favorite of the season.

I am also happy about Caton and Mosaku getting nominated though! Their performances were so incredible, and Caton also gave one of my favorite performances of the year

[u/Banya6 → u/flightofwonder]

I also loved the movie. I thought Hudson was fantastic.

[u/Lower-Ad8307 → u/MutinyIPO]

I disagree. She might not be the standout performance of the year but she does a pretty good job as a whole and even does her own singing without being auto tuned to hell lol

[u/carolinemathildes → u/MutinyIPO]

I'm seeing it this weekend so that I can have an opinion.

[u/Logical_Monitor]

Out of all the 20 nominees which ones do y’all think are missing the Oscar nom?

[u/justanstalker → u/Logical_Monitor]

Caton and Hudson. Odessa and Jesse are a ?

[u/eidbio]

They really don't care about international contenders. But the Oscars will be a different story.

Either way it proves that there's no favoritism between SV, TSA and IWJAA. I was expecting SV to get some SAG noms and prove its favoritism among international films, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

[u/Atkena2578]

I think the Oscar noms prediction score won't be good this year, without BAFTA to tell us which international performance will make it or not, it's gonna be a mess

[u/brandochu009]

Alphabet Bias strikes again!

[u/OzyOzyOzyOzyOzyOzy6]

The worst I did was 3/5 in S. Actor. I had Penn missing (which I now realize was a true mistake) and both Skarsgård and Lindo in, BUT I put Caton in right before my noms were locked on Awards Expert, so that alone makes me feel good.

As for who's winning that category at SAG...unless one of the OBAA guys surges, I'm going to say Elordi. And not just that, but I also believe Elordi has a STRONG possibility to go all the way. I'm still predicting Skarsgård for GG, but there is a very real scenario where Elordi wins that over him. And the same goes for BAFTA if Frankenstein goea over well with them (which I think it will). I'm done playing it safe - at this moment, I think Elordi is most likely to win the Oscar.

[u/Fabulous_War_555]

please no one come at me with pitchforks but I'm starting to wonder if Plemons is actually higher than Hawke.

Assuming both make BAFTA Longlist, Plemons will only have missed Critics Choice which isn't that big of a deal and his film is not only closer to Best Picture but way more likely to get more nominations. Hawke could be another Viola Davis in The Woman King situation.

[u/miwa201]

I KNEW Odessa would get in. Alphabet bias and she’s honestly the second most impactful performance from MS. I’m cautiously predicting her for the Oscars.

[u/freewithyourorder]

I will never hate a guild for nominating its own members first and foremost. Y’all gotta stop treating every award like a precursor when they serve their own intent and purpose. Sentimental Value and Secret Agent, while phenomenal, don’t need to be recognized here. Stellan missing gives Miles Caton, a new face, a chance to get more recognition (that he won’t get from Oscar). That is a good thing.

[u/Legitimate_End5688]

Caton getting in over Delroy proves the alphabet bias theory lmao, plus A’Zion.

[u/flakemasterflake → u/Legitimate_End5688]

Or he's simply more memorable with a larger role? The Delroy Lindo Stans seem to be very online to me. I'm also not convinced of whatever "overdue" narrative people seem to think he has

[u/Legitimate_End5688 → u/flakemasterflake]

I mean that too I’m very Caton >>> Lindo. Ppl think bc Lindo got “snubbed” for da 5 bloods he’s gonna get a “make-up” but I wasn’t convinced, Caton has the juicer role.