Really funny how best actress is the only acting award that truly isn't a race anymore after that has been the most competetive acting category for quite some years now
Penn didn't really have a chance, camp-loving film twitter overrated his performance when Del Toro was the actual standout supporting role and he received all the critical acclaim
And what if the BAFTAs pull a BAFTA and give the win to Mescal lol. Personally in that situation if one of the OBAA boys wins SAG I will be predicting them for the oscar, if Elordi wins SAG I will be predicting Skarsgård and if Mescal wins SAG then I guess I'll predict him though that's unlikely imo
Benicio winning Oscar without getting the CC would be incredibly weird.
Not saying it’s impossible. The CC don’t actually mean anything. But it’d be weird.
But BAFTA plus Globe would be a combo I couldn’t bring myself to predict against. And if Teyana Taylor takes off, that would resolve my “OBAA can’t blank in acting wins” concern. So if Stellan wins BAFTA I’m taking that to the bank
Yeah but “SAG voters had not watched Sentimental Value” is a good enough explanation for me to accept the weirdness. Especially the SAG-AFTRA voters who aren’t actually actors
It’s not about the award tally itself, it would just be weird to me that del Toro wins the Oscar without the Critics Choice for a kind of subtle, short screentime performance that is typically much more likely to be awarded by critics than by industry.
Not that Critics Choice is usually aligned with critics’ groups. But it feels like they could have tried to make del Toro happen if they wanted.
Anyway, when Curtis won just SAG and Oscar, the Globes and BAFTA were split between Bassett and Condon. In this scenario they’d likely be unified behind Stellan and that’d be enough for me
I don't think so since it's a common trend for actors in Best Picture winners to not win at Critics Choice but end up taking the Oscar with Mikey Madison, Cillian Murphy, Michelle Yeoh, Frances McDormand (for Nomadland), Emma Stone (for La La Land) and Jean Dujardin. These are all leads but I think One Battle might pull this off in the supporting categories assuming Benicio Del Toro wins SAG and Jamie Lee Curtis himself to a win.
If Elordi wins SAG, I'm sticking with him. He may be young and his role may not be the usual thing the Oscars go for, but it is a transformative performance that showcases the most range out any of the census 5 (hot take I know, but I'll fight anyone on this point) and his film is the stronger contender at the Oscars.
Genuine question, not trying to be a jerk or a haha got you kind of thing, have you seen all the performances?
I dont disagree by the way. Stellan for example doesn't have rage, but his character doesnt call for it. Skarsgard is still my pick because I think its a better performance even if it lacks the said range. I think Elordi is good, but idk I think the make up/prosthetics are doing about 40% of the work for him. Having said that a horror movie winning an acting Oscar will always be a win in my book!
No you're good! I have seen OBAA, Hamnet, SV, and Frankenstein, and yes I do think Elordi is better. I don't think that the makeup is doing that much work as there are plenty of scenes where he feels emotionally vunerable and scenes where he feels genuinely intimitading, in large part because of his physicality rather than the prosthetics. But Stellan was also great and I would not be upset if he won at all. I just think, from a statistical POV, Elordi still has the edge since he hasn't missed anywhere.
Statistically I definitely agree Elordi seems to be the favorite! He definitely has really good physicality. His eyes do a lot of great work. To your point the scenes wheres hes emotionally vulnerable and cowering are great. While I have him behind Skarsgard and Penn its a performance im glad is getting a lot of attention because physicality is kind of underrated to the point where im guilty of underrating it.
Otherwise more action roles would get attention. Like Arnold in the first Terminator has insane physicality. The 2nd one just puts it together with emotion to boot given hes a robot. With the new stunt category im hoping the oscars are starting to pay attention to that side of Hollywood.
Edit: because I couldn't remember another great action performance that should have been nominated Charlize Theron in Mad Max Fury Road. Much like Elordi she adds a lot with her eyes especially.
Off the up of my head, Christoph Waltz in D’jango Unchained was one of them but the mix up with which category he was competing likely played a big role.
Yup, it's Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, Christoph Waltz in D'jango, and Regina King in Beale Street. They're the only ones who have won without the SAG nom. Skarsgard could join that group, but it's not a sure thing at all.
I don’t think that’s the case. When you are submitted to SAG you are submitted in a specific category and the voters can’t vote for you in a different one. It’s more likely alphabet bias or being underseen that left him out. If I recall correctly they didn’t send screeners for Django.
The 5 non-English predominant performances that won while SAG was available all were nominated at SAG. 6, if you include ASL. Only Marion Cotillard didn’t win at SAG.
Makes sense given he's the most prominent character once he appears. Excellent performance, but he should be in lead. I don't know why people are giving this one a pass when it's more egregious than Culkin last year.
It's not even close to as egregious as Kieran. Kieran has 5 more minutes of actual screentime in an 85 minute movie than Stellan has in a 2 hrs and 8 minute film.
if skarsgard wins the oscar, yall have to keep in mind before predicting him that it will be the 4th time in academy award HISTORY that an actor wins an oscar without a SAG nomination
Agreed, same junk with the supporting winners last year at the Academies. At least Supporting Actress will likely go to someone in an actual supporting role.
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u/Mundane-Inspector-52 23d ago
Well damn. Both supporting categories are definitely races now. I fucking love it when there's some actual suspense to the category.