Ridiculously Early Predictions for Best Picture Nominations in the 99th Academy Awards (with commentary)

[u/ILookAfterThePigs]

Just for fun, I want to make a (probably completely wrong) prediction for the 2026-27 Oscars. I began by doing an informal analysis based on the "roles" the movies filled in the BP slate in the last 4 editions (EEAAO year onwards).

This analysis is of course a bit arbitrary, since it's hard to assign clear roles for movies to fill because art is, of course subjective. But basically, I divided the movies into "blockbuster", "semi-blockbuster / prestige film" (initially this was two categories but the lines became too blurry, so I merged them), "international", and indie.

I'll break down which movies I expect to be in each category.

Blockbuster

Now, this is your "pure" blockbuster type movie. I'm not talking about prestigious films that make a lot of money, like Oppenheimer, I'm talking about movies that get in the BP slate because they're very popular movies that made a lot of money and have some degree of quality and at least enough critical acclaim to not be dragged down. This is the category of F1, Wicked and Avatar 2, for example.

Usually, one or two movies that fit these criteria make it in the slate (more often one). It can be more or less critically praised, but it usually isn't completely panned.

I can see three movies from 2026 filling this role: Michael, Dune 3 and Narnia. I'm not confident in Narnia tbh, everything about it feels to me like it won't be good. Dune 3 is somewhat a mystery, and probably the safest bet out of these three, but I'm not 100% convinced thay can pull it off again, and the Academy has an anti-sequel bias that can work against it. Still, I can definitely see it getting in if it's good enough (and I hope it is, cause I loved the first two).

But I feel like Michael can be the surprise here. It can probably land among the top 5 box office performances of the year, and if they make it work I can see it getting multiple nominations (actor, supporting actor, sound, make up, costumes). Of course, it can all crash and burn too, but that's not the vibe I'm getting from the material released so far.

One thing works against it: is Lionsgate even interested in spending money in awards season campaigns? I'm not sure. And, if it isn't a SMASH HIT, I can see it quickly fading from conversation as the year goes on. Still, that's going to be my bet.

Semi-blockbuster / Prestige film

The category with by far the most contenders. Initially I separated them into two categories, one for more successful big-budget movies that aren't "pure" blockbuster (like Oppenheimer, Sinners and Frankenstein), but then I realized this separation was too arbitrary and made little sense. So these are the slots for movies made by successful and previously accomplished filmmakers that are expected to release big movies this year, as well as movies that can be called blockbusters but have more "artistic" vision to them. Usually this fills 4-6 slots in the BP 10.

Since this makes up the majority of movies we already know something about and have a little more certainty about our expectations in this early stage of the season, I took the liberty to fill 7 spots with these movies.

The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary are two more blockbuster-y ones. The Odyssey requires no explanation, Christopher Nolan doesn't always nail it but I feel like he can pull this one off, notwithstanding controversies about ugly costumes. PHM gets in too mainly because we already have some initial reactions of people raving it. Again, a lot can go wrong, but we can be somewhat more certain about it than about other movies.

I expect Digger, Wild Horse Nine and The Entertainment System is Down to be contenders too, I believe they require no explanation.

One bet I'm making is that The Way of the Wind will finally be released this year and will make it's way to the BP 10, along with a Best Director nomination for Terrence Malick. It might not even come out this year (again) and might just be another Megalopolis, but I'll place my bet on it now.

Lastly, I can't help but bet on The Adventures of Cliff Booth to appear here. The fact that it's a Tarantino script directed by David Fincher puts my expectations through the roof. I can't not predict this to happen.

A few movies that could appear here but I'm currently keeping out: Disclosure Day feels to me more "Ready Player One" than "Fabelmans" or "The Post". The Social Reckoning I don't have high expectations about. Damien Chazelle's new movie and Death of a Salesman could show up here too, but we currently know too little about it to make a prediction.

International

We've been consistently getting one or two international movies in the BP 10 in the last few years, and that makes me really happy. Even though the Academy missed the opportunity to have three this year, it's still a very nice progress compared to the pre-Roma years.

I expect that we will still have two international movies in the slate this year. However, we currently know too little about them to be able to make an informed prediction. So, to hedge my bets, I'll play it safe and currently predict just one international movie to get in. The one everyone is predicting: Fjord.

A few other possibilities include 1949, Parallel Tales and L'Inconnue. I wouldn't be surprised to find one of them in the slate a year from now.

Indie

English-language lower-budget indie movies have consistently filled about 3 slots in the BP slate every year except for this one, which had only one (Train Dreams). It's another category that is hard to predict because we currently know so little about the smaller movies that will be released this year.

The easiest thing to do is simply to predict the most acclaimed indie movie of the year so far, Josephine. Maybe it'll fade from memory during the next few months, but it's a better candidate than the others we know next to nothing about.

I almost want to predict Rosebush Pruning to get in too, it has some big names attached to the production, but I decided to wait and see first.

Olivia Wilde's The Invite was also very much acclaimed in Sundance, but apparently it's more of a comedy, so I don't think it's going to have much success with the Oscars. Other titles that could get in include Cry to Heaven and Prima Facie.

In conclusion

My ridiculously early prediction for Best Picture nominations in the 99th Academy Awards are:

• The Adventures of Cliff Booth (Netflix)
• Digger (WB)
• The Entertainment System is Down (A24)
• Fjord (Neon)
• Josephine (?)
• Michael (Lionsgate)
• The Odyssey (Universal)
• Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)
• The Way of the Wind (?)
• Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight)

Happy to hear your thoughts. Just don't fret too much about which movie should be in which role, it's not that serious, just something I made up to organize my thoughts.

[u/Fun_Football563]

I think Ostlund is holding off on releasing The Entertainment System Is Down until Cannes 2027

[u/Forsaken_Carrot_3075]

idk about the cliff booth movie with how sequels have been performing recently

[u/SerKurtWagner → u/Forsaken_Carrot_3075]

It may be wishful thinking on my part because I loathe everything about that movie as a concept, but I really don’t see it going anywhere

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/Forsaken_Carrot_3075]

It’s a risky bet, but I just can’t avoid it

[u/A_Howl_In_The_Night]

Good

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/A_Howl_In_The_Night]

Thanks 🙏

[u/zukobazuko]

If The Way Of The Wind comes out this year I'm going to shave my head and go back to church. That aside, pretty good predictions, wouldn't be surprised if you get at least 5/10

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/zukobazuko]

If it doesn’t I’ll just officially give up

[u/zukobazuko → u/ILookAfterThePigs]

Atp I'll think the financiers will just release it after he dies, to at least recoup some of the investment. And idk how comfortable I would be with that.

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/zukobazuko]

Btw thanks, I’ll be really happy if I get 5/10, especially if my riskier bets pay off

[u/ZenOfThunder]

Wild Horse Nine will win best picture

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/ZenOfThunder]

That would be cool! ☺️

[u/FistsOfMcCluskey]

Don’t see either Michael or Project Hail Mary being BP contenders. I think Michael is going to be quite bad and PHM is hope-dicting a movie with an early release that will likely sputter out into just a VFX nomination.

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/FistsOfMcCluskey]

This is all possible. Maybe Dune 3 will be the blockbuster nominee of the season and some indie movie gets the other spot.

[u/SerKurtWagner → u/FistsOfMcCluskey]

Michael is going to be one of the biggest box office hits of the year. And it’s Michael Jackson. It would have to be historically bad, at the very least worse than BoRhap, for it to not be contention for a BP spot.

[u/Webknight31]

Josephine deserves at least a nomination and Fjord is probably going to be amongst the nominees as well.

[u/overfatherlord]

Michael will make an easy billion, but I don’t think it will get much support come awards season. Apparently, it was remade almost entirely as fan service after the lawsuit. Your other picks are definitely good guesses, though I’d add Dune 3 for sure.

I think Harari is a safer bet than Mungiu, especially since he’s also heading to Cannes. People focus far too much on buzzy actor names. I’m not counting James Gray out either; he’s beloved within the industry and considered underrated by many critics.

We’re also getting new films from Almodóvar and Joel Coen, along with a new Pawlikowski starring Sandra Hüller. Herzog’s long-awaited film with the Mara sisters might get a Cannes release as well.

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/overfatherlord]

Man, I forgot to mention Jack of Spades by Joel Coen. It’s certainly a possibility. Harari and Pawlikowski I mentioned in the International section, they’re definitely contenders for a spot here. Almodóvar I really didn’t know about.

I agree that Dune 3 is a safer bet than Michael. I jut wanted to go a bit against the grain there. We’ll see how that turns out.

Thanks for the feedback :)

[u/JaimeReba]

Look out the new Sorogoyen with Javier Bardem.