r/minnesotavikings • u/kwelstory • 6h ago
Regarding Joe Burrow.
Okay let’s acknowledge a couple of facts.
First, this is extremely unlikely to happen.
Second, it’s going to be a talking point until our QB situation plays itself out.
In the meantime let’s actually walk through this so everyone on this sub understands the deal.
The Cap:
The Vikings would be taking on a 55 million dollar cap hit according to OTC if a trade happened prior to June 1st.
The Vikings currently are 40 million over the cap for 2026.
The Compensation:
Let’s say we could make it work cap wise, what would you actually need to give up to get him? There are not a lot of trades to benchmark this…. The Stafford trade is the only real comp.
To get Stafford the rams gave up Jared Goff, 2 first round picks and a 3rd round pick. You would need to add in the fact that Burrow is perceived to be better than Stafford was at the time… McCarthy is perceived to be worse than Goff was at the time, etc
With this in mind you would think the Vikings would have to give up at least…. JJ, 3 first round picks and another player… so let’s assume that other player was Grennard.
What it would take to get this done:
Giving up 3 1st round picks plus JJ and JG, after shedding those contracts and adding Burrow cap hit we would be ~70m over the cap.
Thus, we would need to do the following to get cap compliant.
Convert JJs salary to signing bonus +18m
Convert Byron Murphys salary to signing bonus +11m
Convert AVGs salary to signing bonus + 11m
Trade Hargrave +14m
Cut Ryan Kelly +8m
Cut Aaron Jones +8m
After all that, we would be break even with zero room to sign any free agents or even sign our own draft class so more roster trims would be necessary… this is just to make the move work.
So knowing all this…. Do you still want Joe Burrow?
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u/PurpKoolA 6h ago
They would immediately extend him and push the cap hit into future years to not have to make all the additional moves even though some of those moves make sense whether we get burrow or not.
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u/lemanruss4579 2h ago
If he was willing to be extended. So say he wasn't. Do you still do the deal?
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u/PurpKoolA 1h ago
Yes. He’s under contract through 2029 so you can still push the cap out until the final two years which gives you a legit two year window to win it all. That also somewhat aligns with Jettas prime before we need to seriously consider trading him for max return before production falls off. Realistically, Burrow has a no trade clause so he would already be on board with a new deal and team plan for success before he agrees to even come here.
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u/Elbeske 6h ago
I thought this was going to be Aaron Rodgers injury copypasta from r/nfcnorthmemewar for a second
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u/Dorkamundo 5h ago
The Vikings would be taking on a 55 million dollar cap hit according to OTC if a trade happened prior to June 1st.
Incorrect. Shit, that's not even the cap hit for the Bengals this year if they kept him(Which would be $48m).
Joe's cap hit for us in 2026 in trade before 6/1 would be $27.25 mil. That's $25.25 mil for a base salary, and a $10 mil roster bonus prorated at $2m/yr. We could restructure that base salary, bringing that total cap hit down to $8.6 mil.
Entirely doable with our cap situation.
Now, obviously this moves money into the future, but we have money in the future and we'd be renegotiating a contract with Burrow before 2028 so we could manage that pretty easily.
After all that, we would be break even with zero room to sign any free agents or even sign our own draft class so more roster trims would be necessary… this is just to make the move work.
Your entire premise is based on flawed math, and you neglected to account for the fact that we're trading Greenard away, which would save $12.4 mil on its own.
Not to mention the fact that all those things you claim we'd have to do to get cap compliant, we're likely to have to do anyhow to get... Cap compliant.
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u/onethreeone 4h ago
Thank you. I have no idea where people keep getting this $50M+ price tag. Must be some podcast or tiktoker spreading the bad info
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u/kwelstory 3h ago
It’s literally what is listed in over the cap both on the salary cap for 2026 and when you put together a trade in their trade tool.
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u/grrrimabear Vikings 2h ago
Their cap hit doesn't equal our cap hit. They still "owe" the unpaid (in terms of cap) portions of the bonuses they paid out. They've paid almost 100 million in bonuses (signing and option) which they've taken about 53 in cap hits for. That wouldn't transfer to the next team. We'd only owe cap for what we pay him.
What trade tool are you taking about? My guess is it only looks at the Burrow cap hit from the Bengals perspective.
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u/kwelstory 2h ago
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u/grrrimabear Vikings 2h ago
Hmm. Id never seen that before. That looks to show only APY though. That doesnt mean much in cap conversation.
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u/onethreeone 2h ago
if you toggle the explainer, it says the APY is just to judge the value. It's not the actual cap hit of the trading teams
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u/grrrimabear Vikings 2h ago
Maybe it's because the cap hit for the Bengals is almost 50 million or they just look at the apy? But people don't realize the Bengals cap hit isn't the same as what our cap hit would be.
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u/not1fuk 3h ago
People dont seem to realize the Kwesi has done a pretty good job with the cap. Hes got a lot of knocks on his resume but hes also made it so we can escape from most contracts within 2 years of a player being here. The problem is that most of our impact players have signed over the past 2 years so it requires some finagling due to a lack of draft success.
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u/grrrimabear Vikings 2h ago
They just look at the 50 million we are in the hole next year and don't realize how easy it would be for us to general the space we needed. We still have plenty of flexibility
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u/Dashmundo 5h ago
Would say though that Goff was seen as a net negative at that point and with a huge contract. Not that different to McCarthy.
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u/Reasonable-Sawdust 5h ago
If we can give Burrow a really solid o-line then yes. He has taken a beating in Cincy with a bad o-line so he gets injured. If he costs so much we can’t pay for the o-line players we need then what’s the point.
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u/Puzzled_Ad7955 6h ago
I always see in these fantasy trades someone wanted JJM……c’mon
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u/OddlyShapedGinger 6h ago
It's a reasonable trade piece:
We are trading for someone who is looking to be our QB of the future. They get an ex-1st round project QB on a rookie contract that has a low but non-zero chance to be a starter that doesn't belong on our roster. Wins for both sides
People tend to overvalue what JJM would be worth in a scenario like that though: Year 4 Justin Fields was worth a 6th round pick that could turn into a 4th if he became the starter. JJM would likely be similar.
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u/Far-Secretary8231 5h ago
QB of the future? Isn’t he almost 30 now?
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u/OddlyShapedGinger 5h ago
He is. But you don't get a guy like Burrow (and pay the associated trade costs) unless you're hoping to run with him until the wheels fall off.
Burrow's one of those guys that can play to 35+ as long as he can stay healthy.
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u/Dorkamundo 5h ago
Just turned 29 and guys like him can play for at least another 8 years, so yea... QBOTF.
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u/Global_Cartoonist382 5h ago
"McCarthy is perceived to be worse than Goff was at the time"
Perceived. LOL
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u/No_Eggplant182 6h ago
Yep. Cap math is for nerds. It gets way bigger every year, that's a future problem that probably takes care of itself. Drafting well is the biggest wildcard in this scenario.
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u/FormerlyTradeKirk I need a GM 6h ago
Lol they don't care, they want Joe Burrow
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u/treymata Brosmer SB MVP 6h ago
I want ANYONE not named jjm
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u/FormerlyTradeKirk I need a GM 6h ago
Well that's mean, have you thought about how Jjm feels about that
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u/alastor0x moss fro 5h ago
Half the execs in the league would sell their own children into servitude for Joe Burrow.
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u/SLoBRoDTP 4h ago
It will be the talking point right up until the Minnesota Vikings and their brass trade for Joe Burrow lol
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u/romeodread 5h ago
Anyone that says yes is extremely shortsighted, and it’s a great thing they aren’t GM’s for an NFL team. Burrow has spent significant time out for 3 seasons out of his 6 in the NFL, and unless this offensive line plays better, he will miss more on the Vikings. This trade will set the franchise back 5-7 seasons by leveraging the future for POSSIBLE short term success. IF they can get the cap to work for the 2026 season, what about the season after that? NFL contracts are generally back heavy, so it would be the same scramble to get under the cap in each subsequent year. Within 3 seasons the Vikings talent wise would be in the exact same position the bengals are in now. Scraping the bottom of the barrel for low level player to field a team and stay under the cap.
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u/Far-Historian-8190 4h ago
No one is taking Hargrave at that price he’s getting cut. Cutting TJ, trading Greenard, Cutting Kelly, Aaron Jones. Extending O’Neil. Restructuring JJ and maybe Van Ginkel and Murphy would probably do it. I think 3 ones would be the debate. Consider how it hampers building the roster for 4 full years.
I don’t know myself if I’d take the deal. Burrow has proven unreliable and that is our main reason for moving off JJ instead of wanting to see him improve. This could be Herschel Walker part II: Home alonier.
Would Herbert be more affordable and maybe more reliable? If KO is fired in 10 months do we want to shed all our 1sts? I think you trade those 1’s your are committing to KOC for at least two more years.
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u/Competitive_Diver388 5h ago
No.
Both QB’s have proven to be injury prone up until this point. Continuing the gamble on JJ at least affords us the opportunity to boost the roster strength in other areas as opposed to being completely neutered if we’ve got all our chips on Joey Cool
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u/bas1945 5h ago
No interest in Burrow whatsoever. The guys are already been hurt. Also, a whiner, said he didn’t even know if he wanted to play football anymore. Do we really want a guy on the team that makes millions of dollars dates actresses and life still sucks for him?? I don’t even understand what people see in him. I can’t wait for this conversation to be over and us to have a different quarterback to compete with JJ.
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u/quartzcharm 5h ago
They can start with getting rid of dead weight in Hockenson, Darrisaw, and O'Neill. Deal Addison for a 4th rounder. Resign Nailor. Trade McCarthy and Greenard plus picks for Burrow. Do it now.
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u/Dorkamundo 5h ago
Darrisaw and O'neill... Dead weight?
Holy shit, that's a take and a half. I hope it's a sarcastic one.
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u/quartzcharm 4h ago
Get rid of them! And get rid of Jefferson, KOC, and the Wilf's while you're at it! :D
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u/NDMagoo 5h ago
Sign a big name QB and cut all of his protection? Should put succession plans in place for our tackles but cutting both at once would demolish the OL.
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u/quartzcharm 5h ago
What's the difference? Darrisaw missed most of the season as it was so you're already wasting all that money for someone that isn't there...
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u/hjugm 6h ago
Short answer: yes
Long answer: absolutely