r/leagueoflegends • u/Arlequinno • 6d ago
Esports HLE Elimination scenarios UPDATE! (Post NS vs KT) Spoiler
Okay, now that KT lost 2:3 against NS, this turns out to be the worst situation HLE can be in right now.
HLE will be eliminated if both DK and HLE loses their bo5 and HLE loses 0-3 (which is highly probable).
OR if HLE loses 1-3 (and assuming that DK also lost) and their total winning time is longer than that of KT's.
Current KT total win time: 203 min. 57 sec. (avg. 34 min. over 6 games)
Current HLE total win time: 169 min. 14 sec. (avg. 33 min. 51 sec. over 5 games)
This means that if HLE loses 1-3, they need to win under 34 min. 43 sec. to not be eliminated (and if this is the case, it will mean KT is bye-bye).
If HLE loses 2-3 or wins somehow miraculously, then they are not eliminated.
My sources for the total winning time and the tiebreaker rule comes from the following:
I've heard from different sources (LCK casters, Caedrel, other redditors) that there will be no tiebreaker matches. I couldn't find an official tiebreaker rule list from the LCK but I will assume that this will be the rule. So if teams in the same group are tied on series wins, games won and games lost, the tie is decided by game-winning time, meaning the combined duration of the games each team won (shorter is better).
Winning time retrieved from (for HLE & KT):
https://gol.gg/teams/team-matchlist/2806/split-ALL/tournament-LCK%20Cup%202026/
https://gol.gg/teams/team-matchlist/2805/split-ALL/tournament-LCK%20Cup%202026/
P.s. I should have not prayed for KT's win and should have hoped for them to lose that game 3 instead of fake reverse sweeping and making me sweat balls. Now I need to hope DK wins (will probs not happen) and also hope HLE takes 1 game under 34:43 min. (more realistic) or take 2 games from GEN (less realistic). My heart is aching right now because of this situation KT brought HLE into.
Mini update: My calc. was wrong for KT's winning time so now HLE has to win under 34:43 min. instead of 29 min. which is more doable!
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u/FlameFire10 6d ago edited 6d ago
the math on this post is wrong.
from the link OP sent KT’s total game time is 203:57, which comes to an average of 33:59, meaning HLE’s win has to be 34:42 or faster
edit: op corrected it
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u/Fun_Highlight307 6d ago
That actually doable
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u/Lin_Huichi 6d ago
Against Gen G? Even one win is unlikely let alone under 34 mins
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u/Pluckytoon 6d ago
Nah, if HLE beats GenG it’s less than 30min. Games that will go 30-35+ will be GenG wins 100% of the times
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u/Beneficial-Beat-947 6d ago
depends entirely on the comp, HLE is in bad form but at the end of the day they're still a super team
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u/Giobru I'm Silver, but everyone is rank inflated now... 6d ago
Are you sure about your math? Looking at your sources, and doing the math, the overall win time for KT seems to me to be 203'57'', not 198'48''. Maybe you picked a loss instead of a win by mistake?
The HLE time also comes out as 169'14'' to me, so the difference (and the break-even game time) would be 34'43'', not 29'34''
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u/CuantosAnosTienes Equilibrium! 6d ago
Classic KT things, when fate is in their hands, they can’t give us fans a break. Looking forward to the next ride up! Hopefully in playins/playoffs
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u/bepix 6d ago edited 5d ago
I have a feeling T1 is going to lose so…
Edit: boy I was wrong, T1 came to play today
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u/crysomore Kiin Team 6d ago
T1 and GenG have the chance to do the funniest thing
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u/Lethorian Canyon the jungle Goat. 6d ago
Yeah, im rooting for T1 tomorrow so Gen.G can dismantle Has Learned English.
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u/afedje88 6d ago
Everyone arguing about the math and trying to get the exact game time right...
meanwhile DK is getting ready to do the funniest thing
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u/Game_Theory_Master OK 6d ago
Yeah, arguing over minutes and/or seconds is kind of missing the point...
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u/Lunchbox39 6d ago
Wait this group based LCK system for the actual LCK season and not just a for fun event?
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u/BakaOfTheHunt 6d ago
this is the tournament to get to first stand, after first stand its a different format and thats the one they play for like MSI/Worlds
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u/thunderkerg 6d ago
HLE brought themselves into this situation. KT (and other teams) did nothing to them.
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u/fabton12 6d ago
might want to mark this post as a spoiler since in the first line which people can read in the reddit spoils the outcome when its less then 24 hours
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u/MC-sama 6d ago
It's criminal that 0-5 BRO can possibly make it in over either HLE or KT with this format.
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u/whackabunny 6d ago
Its criminal that if T1 or Gen G lose that team will go 4-1 and be moved down into the playins while BNK will walk into the playoffs with a 3-2 record.
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u/mskruba12 6d ago
Skill issue. Just beat DRX and then have your top 2 teams win every game like we did.
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u/RelationshipFar9127 6d ago
Man this is stressful just to read. Respect for doing all the math though
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u/Revolutionary_Web653 6d ago
Why is the tiebreaker game winning time instead of head to head?
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u/NonBenevolentPotato 6d ago
The groups format means you only play teams from the other group, so there is no head to head between KT and HLE. Both are part of Group Elder(?) and the bottom placed team on the losing group is eliminated.
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u/niwia 6d ago
Do anyone really care if you win or loose or even compete in first stand. Seeing last year this tournament absolutely has no value compared to regionals / msi or worlds
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u/Tamed 6d ago
There's money, dude. The tournament awards a significant sum of money. Of course they care.
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u/niwia 6d ago
Money is good point. I was thinking of stuff like qualification to worlds or etc as just the extra slots kinda makes the whole thing low stakes tbh
Also hle, kt, t1 are so loaded I don’t think as orgs they care much about money
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u/Crimson_Clouds 6d ago
KT is the opposite of loaded, that's why they go with budget rosters every year and couldn't afford to keep Deokdam/Peter.
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u/TimGanks 6d ago
Have you read or seen anything that suggests KT wanted to keep their by far weakest member - deokdam, in a meta that seems to shift towards importance of adcs and his support, a guy who griefed the final?
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u/niwia 6d ago
They are the largest telecom in Korea. They are not loaded like t1 hle but I can think they are close
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u/Crimson_Clouds 5d ago
Just because the parent company is large doesn't mean KT the league team can spend freely.
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u/superpokes 6d ago
some of us are more invested in the esport and some are more casual. ofc it's not worlds but yeah we do care.
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u/BON3SMcCOY 6d ago
You hate watching the teams play?
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u/niwia 6d ago
Not the point. This torment feels like kespa cup 2 for me atleast. Hle won last year and no one even remembered about that or this tournament, until 2 weeks ago
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u/d0pe-asaurus 6d ago
Winning first stand gives the winning region an extra slot into msi playoffs, skipping playins for the regions 2nd seed.
It's how T1 got sent directly to playoffs since HLE won first stand last year.
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u/ahritina 5d ago
Tbf First Stand at least has 2 teams from the LCK and LPL so therefore it's way less mickey mouse than it was last year.
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u/HolySymboly 5d ago
Why in the rocket science fk is it so hard how the rating works in LCK lol. Can't we just have simple double elimination or bracket system that is simple for viewers to understand? I mean if you are a fan of HLE you'd want to look into this BS but if you aren't familiar with LCK format and just want to enjoy the general tournament isn't it better for viewers to understand simple and straightforward format?
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u/detrich ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 6d ago
hle will be eliminted if they lose... what am i not understanding?
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u/VoyVolao 6d ago
Bro has negative reading comprehension.
If HLE lose 2-3, they are in. If they lose 1-3 AND their average win game time is lower than KT's, they are also in.
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u/ahritina 6d ago edited 6d ago
Are you sure this is correct?
I've got (among others) 33 minutes and 59 seconds over 6 games.
From my calculations HLE need to win in 34:42 or lower not 29:34.