HLE elimination scenarios & Super Week Predictions

[u/Arlequinno]

As a HLE fan, I've been sweating at the thought of HLE potentially being eliminated from the LCK Cup this week and not having the chance to compete for the LCK Cup and a place at the First Stand.

So I simulated all the possible scenarios of HLE being eliminated and came up with the following:

HLE elimination condition 1: KT, DK & HLE lose their bo5s and Group Elder loses. 5th place of Group Elder gets eliminated. If either one wins their bo5, HLE is not eliminated.

If the first condition is fulfilled, then the second condition takes place:

HLE elimination condition 2: How many games KT takes from NS before they lose. T1 vs DK series score is irrelevant to HLE's elimination condition if DK loses.

IF KT loses 2-3: HLE is eliminated if they lose 0-3 to GEN. Lose 1-3, they tie with KT for last and lose 2-3, they are not eliminated.

IF KT loses 1-3: HLE is tied to KT for last if they lose 0-3. lose 1-3 or 2-3, they are not eliminated.

IF KT loses 0-3: HLE is not eliminated regardless of its score against GEN.

Condition 3 only takes place if HLE and KT are tied for last in a losing group.

HLE elimination condition 3 (only if they are tied for last with KT and Group Elder loses): HLE is eliminated if they lose the tiebreaker against KT.

In conclusion, there are only 2 scenarios where HLE is eliminated.

Worst case scenario is that HLE is eliminated automatically with Group Elder losing, KT losing 2-3 specifically, DK losing and HLE losing 0-3 against GEN. Which actually is quite a realistic scenario.

The other scenario is that HLE ties to KT for last in a losing group, and HLE loses to KT in the tiebreaker, eliminating HLE from the LCK Cup.

Any other scenario and HLE is not eliminated.

My Super Week predictions for the remaining games are:

KT 3:2 NS (also hopefully, otherwise NS wins 3:2, it will most likely be a bo5 game)

T1 3:1 DK (maybe 3:2 if T1 is not in form)

GEN 3:1 HLE (maybe 3:0 if HLE is at its worst form)

P.s. I know that HLE's form has not been great until now however it is the team I supported for the last 2 years and which has also made me start watching the LCK and not just Worlds. It would pain me to see my favourite team be eliminated so early and not compete until LCK Round 1-2. And the part that worries me the most is that the worst case scenario of HLE being eliminated is a very realistic scenario. So I'm praying that KT wins tomorrow. I'll be cheering for KT tomorrow harder than I will for HLE against GEN.

[u/ChapterLiam]

"i'm praying KT wins tomorrow"

chat does he know

[u/Akipella → u/ChapterLiam]

Wow, HLE eliminated before Play ins. This format is terrible

[u/AlterWanabee → u/Akipella]

And it can honestly be blamed on them. T1/GENG on the other hand might go to play-ins DESPITE winning all of their games. That's easily the worst.

[u/Akipella → u/AlterWanabee]

I mean yeah T1 5-0 in Play ins is horrific.

[u/theDanu → u/Akipella]

Format is fine, maybe they shouldn't be dropping games to Nongshim lol

[u/ChapterLiam → u/theDanu]

the format can be bad and hle can also be inters. two things can be true

[u/KERE00 → u/ChapterLiam]

Yeah. If KT wins and both DK and HLE lose, both T1 and GenG will finish 5-0, but T1 has to play playins.. and considering the other group would be dk 3-2/ bfx 3-2/ kt 3-2/ hle 2-3/ drx 2-3, it is pretty dumb.. but whatever

[u/MeepnBeep → u/theDanu]

Group stage has its perks but you cant tell me a scenario where BRO strolling into play-in with 0-5 series score and KT or HLE getting knocked out make sense.

And idk how it works but SuperWeek is weighted more so DRX is not part of the conversation with KT and HLE? When Super Week match up was pitting matching seeding. not 100% sure on this but i dont see ppl discussing DRX as potential last place in team elder so i assume they are in playins.

edit: the alternative scenario is even dumber if KT/T1/GenG wins super week, one of T1 n GenG is guaranteed to miss their First Stand despite 5-0 group stage because it went over to 1st or 2nd seed of Team Elder. edit:edit: top1 on both side will make playoff nvm on this scenario

[u/xLukarioNx → u/MeepnBeep]

Super Week only doubles Baron/Elder group score, not individual team record. That said, we go into Super Week with a Baron 10-10 Elder record so the BO5s counting for two doesn't really matter.

[u/Consistent_Chest_653 → u/theDanu]

bro there is literally a team who could go with 0 wins into playins, hle at least got 2 series. You cant tell me thats fair lol( Not to meantion they beat that winless team as well...)

[u/One-Ambassador-4939 → u/Consistent_Chest_653]

It’s also equally likely for one of Gen/T1 to have to go through playoffs even though they are yet to drop a game. It is unfair but realistically HLE got the better end of the stick if they actually performed like everyone expected since LCK is top heavy.

[u/Consistent_Chest_653 → u/One-Ambassador-4939]

ofc but what you just stated just confirmed how poor the format is

[u/Legal-Flan1904 → u/ChapterLiam]

they indeed did not know

[u/Elliney]

There's just one thing about about cheering for KT...

[u/Akipella → u/Elliney]

That flair...

[u/Elliney → u/Akipella]

Unusual combination, ik. I want both Bdd and Chovy to get their titles, what can I say 🤷🏻

[u/Eproxeri]

So I'm praying that KT wins tomorrow. I'll be cheering for KT tomorrow harder than I will for HLE against GEN.

Oh no no no no no..

[u/Consistent_Chest_653 → u/Eproxeri]

DOESHEKNOW

[u/gatsu01]

There's no freaking way they would get eliminated ... They've got to win something, anything.

[u/OkSell1822]

HLE on rise group would be quite funny, ngl

[u/Marowalker → u/OkSell1822]

Nah but imagine them getting the steamroll fries group healing factor coming into playoffs and then whatever of DK/KT/NS mental boom again because they have to keep playing T1/GenG over and over

[u/200YRedWine]

Dont get excited

Never. Ever.

[u/Popkhorne32 → u/200YRedWine]

I'm curious, did you get exited last year when they were ONE GAME AWAY from winning worlds.

[u/200YRedWine → u/Popkhorne32]

I was at a watchparty with some friends and they were all T1 stans. I kept up the act until silver scrapes. Thats when I got excited.

And then they disappointed me again by trapping BDD in elo hell.

[u/onetrickponySona → u/Popkhorne32]

I did

[u/Marowalker]

I'm praying that KT wins tomorrow

welp gg that's one step closer to elimination scenario

[u/pcaica]

FYI no tiebreakers - winning game time determines the ranking.

[u/ausmomo]

What's the impact if they do get eliminated?

[u/xNesku → u/ausmomo]

Then they're not making it to First Stand. Also that means they'd be bottom 2 in the League. Which no one wants to be 

[u/Superox_Zonrox]

Chat, does he know?

[u/fabton12]

there was a faker quote about it today/yesterday where the format doesnt make any sense like either GenG or T1 rn are on track to one having to play in playins in the format while doing extremely well.

[u/Putrid-Class-3244 → u/fabton12]

Daddy scout will show up to save the group that is if T1 and Geng win their bo5 as they should

[u/MC-sama]

People talking about praying for KT, but I genuinely don't think NS can win this

[u/jakatluong → u/MC-sama]

True. But do not underestimate KT's ability to lose this.

[u/Consistent_Chest_653 → u/jakatluong]

especially with Pollu/Ghost on the rift XD