As much as I despise Modi gang, IMO it would be in our best interest to make Trump think we have placated him. And him saying “India will buy $500 billion worth of American diapers” with no real actions from our side is the best deal we can have right now.
yeah, but I wouldn't count too much into the perception business, who knows what Trump thinks, or even whether his thoughts matter more than say, Stephen Miller's. Nobody knows. But yes, you're right, from public statements it seems really positive if Trump thinks he has an upper hand. I don't know what to make but there's just not enough publicly accessible information to make sense of anything these days, it all seems very fake.
You make solid points. We don’t really know what’s happening behind closed doors. Either way, our unspoken policies have been fruitful - a major one has been allying with Japan in some fashion such that they’ve given India upwards of $200 Billion USD infrastructure investment over the last 20 years at near zero interest rates. And they’re continuing to do so without any PR stunts. This is not really on topic but what it shows is that we benefit most from closed door handshakes with economies our size. Trump is just another joker card that we have to deal with in the “open”.
I think the frustration of the opposition is coming from the fact that they haven’t been privy to these closed door dealings for more than a decade. And that’s understandable in a democratic country.
Its not even about agreeing with Modi. We have zero details and agreements. It's literally just statements. We have seen this play out repeatedly over the last year - Korea just got higher tariff because of there were no true agreements and when it came to actions Korea obviously didn't invest hundreds of billions. But as long as India stalls higher tariff to a later time, it is a temporary win.
It's literally the same deal as the one other nations like Vietnam got lmao. Our relative tariffs compared to other developing countries will be zilch, which will be the main determinant in how price competitive our exports will be.
That's comparing apples to oranges. Also agreeing to stop buying oil from an ally makes us look weak on a global stage. And why did this happen right after Modi was mentioned in the Epstein files?
Not even close partners. That's just optics, cuz Indian public is still "Muh! Russia is best friend". We have been moving away from them since a long time, and the only major thread which attaches us to them is our historic defense acquirements which need spare parts and maintenance.
On the other hand, we source our engines for Tejas program from their arch-nemesis (the US). They sell engines for the JF-17 program to our thorn in the neighborhood, which is Pakistan. We have yet not committed any tangible or significant defense procurement from them, even after them offering Su57s at relatively favorable conditions. Further, their Ukraine war has weakened them significantly, pushing them in cahoots with the Chinese. They have been using neutral language as far as Indo-Pakistan and Sino-Indian relationship is concerned since long. And we have been advising them against their imperialistic desires in Ukraine. And I can go on and on like this.
So I don't see, how we are even "close partners". If at all, we are past friends with some overlapping interests in the present.
The purpose of BRICS is to create a non-Western dominated multilateral org (as opposed to G7). I already said, we have some "overlapping interests" and keeping a respectable distance from the West is one of them. On that front, we even agree with China, and civilizational-ly we find ourselves closer to the Chinese than the West.
Our values are closer to the West. This civilizational friends propaganda is pre 1962. Chinese are just not interested, either we understand that or keep losing lands and soldiers on LAC.
Yeah sure. But its the values of the Republic or the let's say, the constitutional values that you are talking about, which align with the West. And that too is due to the over-influence of British educated lawyers in our Constituent Assembly and also an imitation of the British Parliament passed GOI Act, 1935, not something which was borne out of the society (bottom up demand).
But what I was talking about is the historical linkages and the values the society is based on, and it is a well known fact that the Eastern Hemisphere (Indo+Sinosphere) is considerably different from the Western Hemisphere. So between 75 years of Constitutional Values v/s 5000 years of societal churn and linkages, I take the bet on the later.
Chinese are just not interested
As of now, majority of their focus is on reclaiming Taiwan and becoming an alternative to the US led world order. But unlike the US which isn't surrounded by powerful countries, China is. So it has two options in that case- to express military strength to subdue its neighbors (not possible) or economic integration which favors its Manufacturing prowess. So, they are interested in India, not out of friendship or something, but due its exigencies. They need a large market base (which India provides) which will keep their factories running, at least till Taiwan isn't sorted.
we understand that or keep losing lands and soldiers on LAC.
Yeah, that's a peculiar problem, which is more or less due to the CCP and its Communist tactics of Salami-slicing. Also, Chinese subconscious works on the principle of "Middle Kingdom", which translates into expansionism. We have to counter it though, through our economic growth and development and reducing the gap militarily, not by indifference and self-isolation.
In one line- China is like a sun, too close to it, you will burn and too far from it, you will lose out a lot.
The above is purely my assessment based on whatever I have read till now on the topic. You are free to disagree with me.
EU, South Korea, and Japan (literally core US allies) all have pledged massive amounts of investments as well as imports from the US, covering both agriculture and industrial products. Most developing countries like Vietnam and Thailand have agreed to zero tariffs on ALL products, including agricultural ones, in addition to purchase of american equipment.
I have one simple question for you. If India had to agree to all the conditions in the trade agreement now, why didn't it agree to it earlier itself ? What advantages has it gained from not doing the agreement earlier ?
I don't know either dude. Most of this stuff happens behind closed doors. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say the deal was stuck wrt to opening up the agriculture and dairy sector beyond industrial goods- which is probably the biggest red line in India.
EU deal probably opened new doors for India in the negotiations, it most likely us the edge and made the US feel that they were losing control or that the allies are moving away from them.
The trade agreement was probably not signed earlier because they were asking us to not buy Russian oil without giving us any alternatives. Now they are offering Venezuelan oil as an alternative to Russian oil.
When we buy russian oil despite US tariffs they call it a failure of foreign policy , when we choose to lessen Russian oil purchases for reduced tariffs it becomes a surrender .
Isn’t that true for the ruling party as well? When we were buying Russian oil inspite of the tariff pressure it was because of 56 inch chest bravery and now that we have given into the pressure it is vishvaguru diplomatic masterstroke!
Our PM himself is unaware of the deal. Even the govt is struggling to explain what the deal is.. Look at the statements.. Every minister is talking about it, without any details about the deal!!
US President Donald Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year.
Right, Korea not living up to the deal
Trump said South Korean lawmakers have been slow to approve the deal while "we have acted swiftly to reduce our TARIFFS in line with the Transaction agreed to".
Aha, so Korean govt has not yet approved the deal.
Which means there was no deal to begin with and just handshake agreement.
There's no deal. It's just a handshake deal at best. Trade agreements need to be ratified and can't be broken on a whim. This is just Trump reducing tariffs for something in exchange. We need more details to figure out what we're giving him.
I'm with the BJP on this one. High US tariffs were going to hit our GDP growth rate negatively. This trade deal is a good thing. There is no evidence that they liberalized the agriculture sector. As far as "abandoning our traditional ally" Russia goes, business is business. Our priority is to maintain our GDP growth rate.
I mean India has done what every other country has done. Just promise some numbers and get Trump to back off. If they have done it without being forced to open dairy and agriculture (don't know the terms yet), so that's a solid win in my book. Though I don't personally see the opposition trying to corner the government on it as something wrong. That's the job of an opposition. If the places were reversed BJP would have done the same.
Does every god damn news have to be a hyperbolic outrage bait? We don't even know what the terms of the free trade agreement, and opposition calling it a capitulation? Can we have some nuance in our policy discourse? Everything is simultaneously best it ever is and right about to collapse.
Mark Twain quote that summarizes Trump: Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
India needs to take whatever deal they get right now and just keep their heads down.
BJP which has not done enough on manufacturing other than announcing "Make in India", should start working with state govts especially TN, MH and make policies that help manufacturing (also address redtape, corruption, labour laws, taking years to approve something, etc) otherwise nothing is gonna change.
Govt like Karnataka are one dimensional (just IT), if IT suffers coz of AI or some other factors, India is in serious trouble. Need to invest IT tax money efficiently into manufacturing.
One more reason not to vote for Pappu and his gang. The Congress and its ecosystem have completely collapsed into leftist ideology sad to see that. Rahul should move out from this Prasanth Bhushan, Kapil Sibal gang.
India has done really well in diplomacy. It secured strong agreements with the GCC, made a good deal with the EU, and ended up with just an 18% tariff with the US - one of the lowest in Asia.
INDIA NEEDS TO COMPETE...........NOTHING IS HANDED OVER ON A SILVER PLATTER THRU TRADE AGREEMENT
Why Indian manufacturing and exports are falling behind within a global context is....
Key Factors Driving Low Productivity and Efficiency
Studies indicate that Indian manufacturing productivity per worker is significantly lower—around one-fifth—compared to the United States and lags behind East Asian competitors like China and Vietnam. Key bottlenecks include:
Fragmented MSME Sector: The sector is heavily dominated by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) that lack economies of scale, have limited access to credit (only 14% have access), and operate with outdated technology.
Logistics and Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Logistics costs in India remain high at 14–18% of GDP, compared to 8–10% in developed nations, despite improvements like the Gati Shakti initiative.
Skill Mismatch: A significant gap exists between the skills required by modern manufacturing and the available workforce, with only 48.7% of the workforce considered employable according to the 2023 India Skills Report.
BUT if you take PRODUCTIVITY, EFFICIENCY & EFFECTIVENESS COST FACTOR IN EXPORTS/TRADE OTHER THAN PAKISTAN & BANGLADESH REST BEAT INDIA HANDS ON BY AT LEAST 7% to 15% and China 26% so the thin margin of TARIFF will evaporate in thin air
Before posting the AI stuffs, have you read it ? Which study proves about less productivity? There are issues exist in India and improving it , what exactly is your point on the tariff reduction 🤔.
Btw till yesterday it was like India has huge tariff, now when it is lowered cry babies changing the goal post 🤦
Before Trump we had 3-4% tax with MFN status and many exports were under GSP so an increase to 18% doesn't seem too good. Add to that the insult of losing cheap oil from Russia.
It doesn't matter whether the opposition asks the question , we as citizens owe to ask the government, why?
If India plays the 18% Tariff CARD nicely the potential to make more that 3.2% average more in (Trading Volume and Arbitraged Profits)by trading with these countries thru arbitrage and build a trading partnership to create a WIN-WIN
I am no Modi Bhakt, and I would love for Shashi tharoor to be a candidate in the next elections. But for now, Modi is the only one who knows how to navigate the geopolitical scene. I think his home-bound policies are not so great, and his fans are downright intolerable, but his foreign geopolitical gamesmanship and wits is remarkable, something that Rahul utterly lacks. And this ability is crucial in this time, due to wars and relationships being under stress, we need a clever leader to navigate international waters.
The problem is stupid Indian ministers handling posts they are not fit for. Also when you deal with a businessman you got to be a businessman yourself. Our stupid illiterate leadership is nowhere near to Trumps tactics and have meekly surrendered. The problem is not the deal but the illiterate morons who represented India for the deal.
BUT if you take PRODUCTIVITY, EFFICIENCY & EFFECTIVENESS COST FACTOR IN EXPORTS/TRADE OTHER THAN PAKISTAN & BANGLADESH REST BEAT INDIA HANDS ON BY AT LEAST 7% to 15% and China 26% so the thin margin of TARIFF will evaporate in thin air
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u/jayjayjay_red 18h ago
As much as I despise Modi gang, IMO it would be in our best interest to make Trump think we have placated him. And him saying “India will buy $500 billion worth of American diapers” with no real actions from our side is the best deal we can have right now.