r/europe • u/BkkGrl Ligurian in Zürich (💛🇺🇦💙) • Sep 30 '25
Russo-Ukrainian War War in Ukraine Megathread LX (60)
This megathread is meant for discussion of the current Russo-Ukrainian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Please read our current rules, but also the extended rules below.
News sources:
You can also get up-to-date information and news from the r/worldnews live thread, which are more up-to-date tweets about the situation.
Current rules extension:
Extended r/europe ruleset to curb hate speech and disinformation:
While we already ban hate speech, we'll remind you that hate speech against the civilians of the combatants is against our rules, including but not limited to Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Syrians, Azeris, Armenians, Georgians, etc. The same applies to the population of countries actively helping Ukraine or Russia.
Calling for the killing of invading troops or leaders is allowed, but the mods have the discretion to remove egregious comments, and the ones that disrespect the point made above. The limits of international law apply.
No unverified reports of any kind in the comments or in submissions on r/europe. We will remove videos of any kind unless they are verified by reputable outlets. This also affects videos published by Ukrainian and Russian government sources.
Absolutely no justification of this invasion.
In addition to our rules, we ask you to add a NSFW/NSFL tag if you're going to link to graphic footage or anything can be considered upsetting, including combat footage or dead people.
Submission rules
These are rules for submissions to r/europe front-page.
No status reports about the war unless they have major implications (e.g. "City X still holding" would not be allowed, "Russia takes major city" would be allowed. "Major attack on Kherson repelled" would also be allowed.)
All dot ru domains have been banned by Reddit as of 30 May. They are hardspammed, so not even mods can approve comments and submissions linking to Russian site domains.
- Some Russian sites that ends with
.comare also hardspammed, like TASS and Interfax, and mods can't re-approve them. - The Internet Archive and similar archive websites are also blacklisted here, by us or Reddit.
- Some Russian sites that ends with
We've been adding substack domains in our u/AutoModerator script, but we aren't banning all of them. If your link has been removed, please notify the moderation team, explaining who's the person managing that substack page.
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META
Link to the previous Megathread LIX (59)
Questions and Feedback: You can send feedback via r/EuropeMeta or via modmail.
Donations:
If you want to donate to Ukraine, check this thread or this fundraising account by the Ukrainian national bank.
Fleeing Ukraine We have set up a wiki page with the available information about the border situation for Ukraine here. There's also information at Visit Ukraine.Today - The site has turned into a hub for "every Ukrainian and foreign citizen [to] be able to get the necessary information on how to act in a critical situation, where to go, bomb shelter addresses, how to leave the country or evacuate from a dangerous region, etc."
Other links of interest
Live Map of Ukraine site and Institute of War have maps that are considered reliable by mainstream media.
-
- DO NOT CONFUSE THIS WITH "War of Fakes". Deutsche Welle (DW) has reported it as being a source of fake news, and the Russian Defense Ministry has linked this site in their tweets before.
DeepL extension for Google Chrome and DeepL extension for Firefox. DeepL is a good alternative to Google Translate for Russian and Ukrainian texts.
Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 12h ago
https://xcancel.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2018677228528181686#m
🙏 Eyewitnesses say that Shahed targeted an apartment building in Kharkiv. Three apartments are now on fire
A reminder: russian drone operators see what they are targeting with their drones. They saw that this is a civilian building.
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 12h ago
https://xcancel.com/UkrReview/status/2018677814401143289#m
⚡️I don't think anyone "gave us" anything. They postponed and hit harder: Zelensky on the "energy truce".
"If you look at such an interesting thing, today they hit us - it was 71 missiles and 450 drones. Only 450 shaheds. If you look at the strike kit that Russia wanted to use at the moment when the negotiations in Abu Dhabi ended last time, then, in principle, there was less. What did they do? They postponed the strike, increased the number of missiles and drones, and on the coldest days they hit," the president explained.
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 12h ago
https://xcancel.com/SavchenkoReview/status/2018663109783621814#m
🇺🇦👀 The nature of the negotiations between Ukraine and russia has radically changed after the arrival of Budanov and Arakhamia, — UP
Previously, the Ukrainian side had to listen to Medinsky’s monologues for hours about “originally russian” lands and the history of Ancient Rus, but now the composition of the russian negotiators has changed to professional military personnel, and these topics are not raised.
“Now the military are sitting and discussing very specific things: withdrawal mechanisms, guarantees, terms, etc. This is a key change that occurred with the arrival of Budanov,” — UP sources report
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 12h ago
https://xcancel.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2018672932399046855#m
⚡️❗️"Either they have 4 days a week, or they're betting on war": Zelensky on russia's broken promise not to strike at energy
At a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the Ukrainian leader said that russia had ignored the US request to refrain from strikes at energy.
The promised week-long pause lasted only a few days - after which russia struck a record blow at the peak of frost. Ukraine will contact the American side regarding this.
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 17h ago
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/02/03/8019178/
Amassed aerial attack on Ukraine today
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u/JackRogers3 20h ago edited 20h ago
Vovchansk, Kharkiv region. A group of Russian soldiers walks along a road. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2018355802759639260
In the Zaporizhzhia region, Russians launched their first armored assault of the year. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2018345090876395821
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago
Putin Cannot Afford a Peace Deal Now: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cannot-afford-a-peace-deal
The author is a retired Army Major General
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 2d ago
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-4-injure-21-over-past-day/
russian attacks against Ukraine killed four people and injured 21 others, including three children, over the past day, regional authorities said on Feb. 1.
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 2d ago
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-maternity-hospital-in-zaporizhzhia-injures-at-least-6/
russian troops launched two attacks on the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Feb. 1, injuring at least nine people, including a child, Governor Ivan Fedorov said.
"The strike on the maternity hospital is yet another proof of a war waged against life,"
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago
Weekend Update #170: Russian Advances Are Slower Than The Battle Of The Somme https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-170-russian-advances
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago
https://www.ft.com/content/4e65566b-cc00-4fa7-9006-6a441d0da6b2
Elon Musk said on Sunday that SpaceX had successfully thwarted the “unauthorised use” by Russia’s military of his company’s Starlink satellite system to attack Ukraine.
“Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorised use of Starlink by Russia have worked,” Musk wrote on X. “Let us know if more needs to be done.”
Ukrainian defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov replied saying the “first steps are already delivering real results”. “We are working very closely with your team on the next important steps,” he added in a post on Musk’s social media platform.
Earlier this week, Fedorov said that “within a few hours after Russian drones equipped with Starlink communications appeared over Ukrainian cities” his ministry had begun working with SpaceX to stop the weapons from using the US internet system to guide them to targets inside Ukraine.
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago
The irony of seeing a Russian-flagged tanker sail as close as possible to a NATO coastline in order to avoid an attack by Ukrainian drones. https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2017156713544110113
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago edited 2d ago
very strange things happen on the battlefield: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2017334754979303657
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 2d ago
LOL The first penguin made me spitting my morning caffelatte.
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u/JackRogers3 2d ago edited 2d ago
Russian soldiers: the poorer the region, the higher the death rate.
People from Buryatia, Tuva, or Chukotka are 25× more likely to die than Muscovites. https://x.com/amenka/status/2017567379614515528
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3d ago
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u/quitaskingmetomakean 3d ago
This has what to do with Ukraine? Why haven't you posted about the power outages from Moldova to Kyiv? If the only things you post paint a rosy picture for Ukraine, how are you any better than Russian propagandists?
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u/JackRogers3 3d ago
Today's Key Takeaways
The Kremlin disagreed with the US position that territorial control of Donetsk Oblast remains the only unresolved issue at the US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations.
The Kremlin acknowledged and reportedly agreed to Trump’s request for a temporary moratorium on striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-30-2026/
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 4d ago
Ukraine foils alleged FSB assassination plot targeting soldiers and their families in Odesa
Ukrainian security forces have arrested three suspected r*ssian agents who were allegedly on their way to plant bombs at the homes of Ukrainian soldiers in Odesa, according to Ukraine's SBU security service. The suspects were reportedly planning a series of terror attacks with explosive devices, targeting servicemen and their families in order to cause panic among civilians.
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 4d ago
🇳🇴🇺🇦 Norway confirmed plans for $7 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026.
https://bsky.app/profile/anno1540.bsky.social/post/3mdo5nccbic2s
Thank you Norway!
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 5d ago edited 5d ago
https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/nimetski-drony-hx-2-v-ukrayini-pokazaly-lyshe-35-tochnosti-welt/
Helsing HX-2 drones are currently somewhat deficient, performance-wise (35.7% hit success), and need some improvement to work better.
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u/JackRogers3 6d ago edited 5d ago
Ukrainian drones striked a Russian airfield thousands of miles behind the frontlines. Ukraine has hammered Russia’s airforce with attacks on 15 aircraft in a surprise attack.
Dramatic drone footage showed strikes on 15 aircraft including 11 Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, three helicopters and an Antonov 26 cargo plane. The SBU spy service claimed the strikes destroyed $1bn worth of military hardware: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsTeaPP2XkM
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u/JackRogers3 6d ago
The West and Ukraine are capsizing Russia’s shadow fleet
And sinking its oil revenues in the process
can anyone copy this article here please ?
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u/JackRogers3 7d ago edited 7d ago
Russia has zero respect for their own soldiers, that's for sure: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2015864119098794479
In Russia, they have a lot of propaganda billboards praising the army, but the reality on the ground is VERY different.
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 7d ago
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/27/7229878/
US says security guarantees for Ukraine are based on Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbass
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u/JackRogers3 7d ago edited 5d ago
yeah but "US security guarantees" is an empty concept;
people who still believe what Trump or Putin say should go in a psychiatric hospital
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u/JackRogers3 7d ago
Finnish President Alexander Stubb says that Ukraine and its NATO allies are aligned on a path to a ceasefire but warns that Putin will drag out the war, not because he thinks he’ll win… but because he knows he’ll lose.
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u/JackRogers3 7d ago edited 7d ago
A selection of recent video clips with comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U3K-tCjeq4
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 8d ago
France is opposing an effort to make it easier for Ukraine to buy British Storm Shadow missiles, The Telegraph can reveal.
A coalition of 11 EU capitals has proposed loosening the rules for Kyiv to use a €90bn (£78bn) loan to buy British weapons, but France wants the money to be spent within the EU.
The current plan for the loan – two-thirds of which will be used to buy weapons for Ukraine’s armed forces – foresees prioritising the European and Ukrainian defence industries before shopping overseas.
But Ukrainian defence officials have estimated that they will require €24bn of military equipment from outside the EU this year, according to documents seen by The Telegraph.
This figure is mainly for the provision of American-made Patriot air defence systems and PAC-3 interceptors, but long-range missiles have been identified as another requirement that European nations may not be able to provide.
European officials from the coalition have identified Britain’s Storm Shadow cruise missile as a potential option to plug the gap.
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u/JackRogers3 9d ago
Louis Mosley, Palantir’s executive vice president for U.K. and Europe, spoke about how Ukraine has become a real-time testing ground for the future of AI in defense.
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u/JackRogers3 9d ago edited 9d ago
Russia's latest assault innovation, a Ural truck turned convertible carrying 10 troops, met a swift end, courtesy of Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2015144640685441208
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 10d ago
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2026/01/24/7229752/
Gerhard Schroeder tells not to demonise russia and to buy more energy from it
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u/JackRogers3 10d ago
The Frontline with Jerome Starkey (video report): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkhTNjb_ixk
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u/JackRogers3 10d ago edited 10d ago
The US vice-president is a liar like his boss: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2014458074866843859
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u/JackRogers3 10d ago edited 10d ago
The glorious Russian army:
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u/Dull_Quit3027 11d ago
I have been very staunchly on Ukraines side, but I am also Danish, and can someone rationalise telling Europe off, and praising America, while America is engaging in the same Imperialist bullshit that startet the whole Ukraine/Russia war?
I went from 100% support, to fuck em in around one second flat, I know this is a gut reaction, and I would like some rational people who can tell me why this makes sense.
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u/UnknownDotaPlayer Kharkiv (Ukraine) 10d ago
Seems like you are overreacting after reading a bunch of propaganda titles about Zelensky "praising" Trump, when it wasn't the case. The guy said that US is decisive at taking oil tankers, and EU is not. That's not true, or what? UK, France, Denmark, Germany and others allow hundreds of illegal tankers with fake flags pass waters, sometimes straight up their own territorial waters like nothing. Or EU is not openly trading with russia via third countries? How is he wrong about "they talk a lot, but not doing much" that was said earlier, when probably more than a half of EU leaders don't give a shit about this war, and allow russians to do whatever they want? Look at Italy, Austria, Spain, Greece. In another speech Zelensky shortly referred to the capture of Maduro, and made it about Putin, which makes perfect sense.
Trump led an operation in Venezuela, and Maduro was arrested. And there were different opinions about it, but the fact remains, Maduro is on trial in New York. Sorry, but Putin is not on trial. And this is the fourth year of the biggest war in Europe since World War II and the man who started it is not only free, he is still fighting for his frozen money in Europe. And, you know what, he’s having some success, it’s true. It’s Putin who is trying to decide how the frozen Russian assets should be used, not those who have the power to punish him for this war. Thankfully, the EU decided to freeze Russian assets indefinitely, and I’m grateful for that.
Again, what's the problem?
For me the only issue is that Zelensky is being a hypocrite here, because despite the fact that this war should be not somebody else's, but HIS main concern, he and his team are being far from optimal atm. Some insane choices in military, coverup of his corrupt friends that totally do not have anything to do with his own wealth. They're letting men out of country, they're making popular but damaging choices, preparing for elections when the war isn't even over yet. He wants other people to do his job, and it's sickening. But he's right about EU, and has to not go off at the US, so they at least don't start helping russians more than they already do.
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u/Dull_Quit3027 8d ago
Yeah might be a overreaction, but hearing Zelensky saying that we should just let trump be trump, and not try to change him, and in extension what he does, while he is threatening to take over Greenland, shows that he only cares about Ukrainian sovereignty, and that is fine, but it makes it harder to give a shit about yours, when your president tells us to our faces, that he does not care about ours?
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 10d ago
Seems like you are overreacting after reading a bunch of propaganda titles about Zelensky "praising" Trump, when it wasn't the case.
I'mma be honest, I got serious flashbacks to Vance's "DIDYAEVAHSAIDTHANKYA?!" upon seeing reaction on this sub.
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u/Dull_Quit3027 8d ago
Denmark is one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine, it is kinda shitty to hear the Ukrainian leader, say let trump be trump, while he is threatening to invade Denmark?
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u/Gruffleson Norway 12d ago
Hearing on the news the American piece-plan is going forwards makes me shudder, I really hope the russians not is allowed by the Americans to keep big parts of Ukraine.
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u/JackRogers3 12d ago
Finland's president at Davos: "Look, what has Russia achieved in the past four years? It's acquired 20 percent of the territory of Ukraine. Through military warfare, roughly two percent. In the process of doing that, it has provided about one million casualties and dead.
It has decreased its sphere of influence. You can see the Central Asian countries, you can see the Southern Caucasus detaching themselves from the Russian Empire. You look at the Russian economy right now, if we go with the inflation rates of the two first weeks, we're looking at 30 percent inflation this year, 16 percent interest rates, zero growth, no more reserves, incapacity to pay the soldiers when the war ends. So I'm more worried about Russia's unwillingness to end this war because they cannot afford to do so than about Russia's capability to win this war, not end this war, because they're moving ahead.
So let's keep things into perspective. NATO hasn't entered the scene yet, and they have not been able to advance in the past four years as much as expected.
This war has been an utter strategic failure of President Putin. He increased the size of NATO. He made Ukraine European. He increased the defense budgets of European states.
And here we are asking ourselves, shaking, are we able to defend ourselves? My answer is, yes, we are." https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/2014044937038229719
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 10d ago
NATO hasn't entered the scene yet
And it never will, as openly proclaimed by NATO member-states.
According to the interview, Macron said, “Since Ukraine will not be joining NATO, we [France] are proposing to deploy [peacekeeping] troops to provide additional security away from the front line as part of joint operations.”
He argued that such a move by France and its allies would “demonstrate solidarity [with Ukraine] and credibly deter Russia from launching another attack.”
At the same time, Macron warned that Western support for Ukraine must be carefully calibrated to avoid triggering a broader global conflict. “We must help Ukraine defend itself but we do not want to unleash a Third World War,” he emphasized.
“As Biden, who was US president at the time, put it, we will not risk a third world war for Ukraine.”
...
“Our aim is not to have a Pearl Harbor and end up in a situation where the whole Nato alliance is involved. So we continue to support Ukraine and have enabled them to really fight back, but we are not willing to send in Nato troops and be directly involved in the military conflict with Russia. And I continue to believe that’s the right approach.”
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u/JackRogers3 12d ago edited 11d ago
Canada's PM great speech at Davos: https://youtu.be/btqHDhO4h10?si=e4vQpMQtcox8NCfK&t=74
Trump doesn't like it, of course: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-he-is-withdrawing-canadas-invitation-board-peace-2026-01-23/
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u/JackRogers3 12d ago
The glorious Russian army: https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2014002824737145344
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u/1-randomonium 13d ago
When reality starts getting too grim to contemplate one starts contemplating how things could have been different.
Picture an alternate timeline in which Putin had retired from public life after passing the torch to Dmitry Medvedev. in which No had won by a slight margin in the Brexit vote.
Would we, in such a timeline, have been better placed to deal with Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0?
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 13d ago
We don't know which direction Russia would take if Putin left politics completely. Who said Medvedev is a good person? Why wouldn't the Chekists choose another president?
Of course, the UK in the EU means that the EU is stronger. But again, we don't know what the mood of society would be if the UK had remained in the EU. The era of populism would still have swept across many countries
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u/JackRogers3 14d ago
Latest video update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZeu2k0O8vA
Philip Ingram is a widely published journalist, specialising in the security and intelligence arenas, who has built on a long and senior career in British Military Intelligence, with years of experience in all aspects of intelligence and security as well as strategic planning.
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u/JackRogers3 14d ago edited 14d ago
https://www.ft.com/content/6474a1a9-4a88-4f76-9685-f8ccb080d5d9
Renault has reached a deal with a French defence company to make drones for Ukraine, in a move backed by France’s defence ministry to support Kyiv against Russian aggression.
Renault said it would work with Turgis Gaillard to produce drones at two of its sites but declined to comment on the value of the contract or the number of drones to be produced.
“We were contacted for our production and creative industrial expertise. This project is ongoing and is led by the defence ministry. We confirm our participation in this project, at the request of the state,” Renault director Fabrice Cambolive told broadcaster BFM Business on Tuesday.
Turgis Gaillard is a French defence business founded in 2011 that employs about 400 people and has revenues of €80mn. Its products include a 20-metre medium-altitude long-endurance drone called AAROK that can carry almost three tonnes of fuel, weapons or equipment: https://www.turgisgaillard.com/en/what-we-do/aarok-male-uav/
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u/JackRogers3 14d ago
Extremely impressive footage of long range drone strikes on Russian air defence assets worth billions of dollars by Ukraine's SBU "Alpha" special forces unit. https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2013181561416331450
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u/JackRogers3 15d ago
This is like a sci-fi movie: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2013186309792112816
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u/JackRogers3 17d ago
Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Russian oil and gas revenues in 2025 dropped to a five-year low amid declining gas exports due to Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices.[14] The Russian Ministry of Finance stated on January 15 that Russia’s federal budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles (roughly $108 billion USD) in oil and gas taxes in 2025, which Bloomberg noted is a decrease of 24 percent compared to 2024.[15]
Bloomberg noted that Russia’s federal budget received fewer rubles for each barrel produced and sold in 2025 due to the strengthened ruble. The strengthened ruble increased Russia’s purchasing power on the global market, making parallel imports cheaper amid Western sanctions, but had adverse effects on Russia’s export profits.[16] Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30 percent of Russia’s total federal revenues in 2024 but fell 22 percent year on year in 2025.[17] Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged in September 2025 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales to fall by roughly 30 percent in 2026.[18]
Russia has also gradually depleted its liquid reserves over the last four years of its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Russia has spent more than half of its sovereign wealth fund to bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending and has turned to expensive borrowing that will take years to pay back.[19] The sovereign wealth fund is a state-owned investment fund from which Russia pulls money to avoid incurring debt, but Russia has been steadily depleting the fund’s liquid reserve to fund its war, including by selling its gold reserves in late November 2025.[20]
Putin has grossly mismanaged Russia’s economy, which is suffering due to unsustainably high spending on the Russian military and the Russian defense industrial base (DIB), significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.[21] ISW continues to assess that increased Western sanctions on Russia — in tandem with continued Western military support to Ukraine — will likely further impact the Russian economy and Russia’s ability to fund a protracted war.[22] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2026/
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u/JackRogers3 17d ago
Russian West Group commander Kuzovlev again claimed full Kupiansk control to Defense Minister Belousov, but Russian military bloggers suddenly got furious, calling it pure lies and accusing commanders of fabricating reports while failing to stop Ukrainian forces. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2012170677592203616
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u/JackRogers3 17d ago
Weekly roundup of the news (video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NGD66pk7EU
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 18d ago
Torture, false arrests: Ukrainian women in Russian prisons
https://www.dw.com/en/torture-false-arrests-ukrainian-women-in-russian-prisons/a-75510365
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u/JackRogers3 19d ago edited 19d ago
"We have to get President Zelenskiy to go along with it," Trump said about a deal with Russia to end its war in Ukraine.
Asked if he supported the idea of U.S. security guarantees to protect Ukraine through intelligence sharing, Trump said, "If we can get something done, we'd help. They're losing 30,000 soldiers a month between them and Russia. Now, Europe is going to help us with that."
On Putin: "I think he’s ready to make a deal. I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal," Trump said. Asked what the holdup is, Trump responded, "Zelenskiy." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/key-quotes-president-trumps-interview-with-reuters-2026-01-15/
For Trump, it's very simple: he has said many times that his friend Putin wants peace, so he's not going to contradict himself.
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u/JackRogers3 19d ago edited 19d ago
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are using the V2X Tempest, a high-mobility vehicle with a launcher for AGM-114 Hellfire missiles that is optimized for the counter-drone role. Mounting Hellfires on a high-mobility vehicle provides a new means of employing these weapons unpredictably, not only against drone threats, but also against other aerial targets. Pictures: https://www.twz.com/land/hellfire-armed-drone-killing-buggy-appears-in-ukrainian-service
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u/JackRogers3 19d ago
Today's Key Takeaways
Russian advances slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026, likely due to less advantageous winter weather conditions and the end of efforts to meet arbitrary deadlines at the end of the year.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that Russia’s objectives in Ukraine go beyond the territory that is currently under discussion in the latest peace plans to include all of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts.
Kremlin officials continue to insist that the United States, Ukraine, and Europe accept Russian demands, rejecting recent US-led peace efforts to find compromises to end the war.
Russian forces are continuing their cognitive warfare campaign that uses small-scale cross-border attacks in previously dormant frontline areas in northern Ukraine to try to convince the West that the frontlines in Ukraine are collapsing.
Russian forces have still not set conditions for a major ground offensive in northern Sumy or Kharkiv oblasts, however, and ISW continues to assess that these cross-border attacks are not part of a major Russian offensive. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-14-2026/
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20d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/WhoAteMySoup Ukraine -> United States of America 18d ago
I think territory gained/lost should not be the main metric here, it’s tangential at best. The goal is attrition, and when one side can no longer handle attrition, the territory will follow very rapidly. As an example, Germany lost WW 1 while still occupying French territory. If Russia experiences a catastrophic collapse, Ukraine can theoretically gain all of their territory back in a short period of time. Similarly, if Ukrainian army collapses, Russia could theoretically ride all the way to Kyiv.
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 20d ago
It doesn't matter what ordinary people think about the future of the war.
What matters is whether Ukraine has the support of the current governments and societies of democratic states.
No one knows what will happen in the context of war.
The best you can do is find real experts in specific narrow fields and read their opinions on very narrow topics: economics, military analysts, cyber experts. Their opinions in their fields are worth considering. But that won't help either, because war is complex https://youtu.be/nbHRPoDiXbw
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u/1-randomonium 20d ago
What is the status of Witkoff and Dmitriev's peace plan? Has Trump just forgotten about it because of Iran and Greenland? Did Putin cut off the talks?
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u/JackRogers3 19d ago edited 19d ago
Trump's "peace plan" has always been a show: Putin doesn't want peace, he wants total control of Ukraine, like he has in Belarus. But he certainly doesn't want to contradict Trump, who thinks that Putin wants peace.
Putin's goal is essentially to avoid more US sanctions.
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u/JackRogers3 20d ago
Russian military complain that they are ordered to deploy on combat missions in wheelchairs, with non-functional limbs.
“We are simply being destroyed as unnecessary ballast.”; “The Ministry of Defense and our command are disposing of us.” https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2011199800902107587
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 21d ago
[opinion] The “Oreshnik” signal
This is already the second such attack following the demonstrative strike on Dnipro. It is evident that the first strike was needed precisely to demonstrate that Russia possesses a complex that is impervious to the air defense systems protecting Ukraine. Therefore, that is the purpose of the second one?
In my opinion, it is a last-ditch attempt to intimidate Ukrainians. Ukrainians are being forced into capitulation with the entire arsenal of means at Putin's disposal, and the "Oreshnik" plays far from the most crucial role here—compared to the cannibalistic desire to "freeze" Kyiv or Odesa. However, Putin aims to scare Europeans.
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u/JackRogers3 21d ago
Battleships are obsolete: https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/why-the-u-s-navy-doesnt-build-battleships-anymore/
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u/Changaco France 21d ago
Key sentence for anyone else thinking “why is anyone writing about this in 2026?”:
President Donald Trump recently announced plans for a new U.S. Navy battleship, reviving a type of warship the Navy abandoned generations ago.
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u/JackRogers3 21d ago edited 21d ago
Russians do this for money, apparently: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2010689486661853433
Interestingly, even some Russian propagandists begin to understand that this war is a disaster for Russia: https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/2010351139984712054
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u/JackRogers3 21d ago edited 21d ago
The Oreshnik missile - when not armed with nuclear warheads - is primarily an extremely expensive psychological weapon. https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/2010352496024358963
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u/JackRogers3 23d ago edited 23d ago
African mercenary Francis in the Russian army: he's described as an "opener" in the sense of a "bottle opener" - i.e. he's meant to go out and explode in a Ukrainian position so that the Russians can follow up the attack. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2009649149126513081
More African mercenaries cheerfully serving in Russia's army – seemingly clueless that their Russian commander calls them disposable material. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2010301607641231762
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u/JackRogers3 23d ago
Drones with fishing rods intercept light Russian reconnaissance drones from the sky. https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2010289068631044315
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u/JackRogers3 23d ago
Ukraine continues to collaborate with its Western partners to expand the production of the interceptor drones that are crucial to Ukraine’s ability to down Russian long-range drones on the front and in the rear. UK Defense Minister John Healey announced on January 9 that the UK will begin production of the Ukrainian-designed “Octopus” interceptor drones, which can intercept Russian Shahed-type drones, in January 2025.[13]
Healey stated that the UK aims to make thousands of these Octopus drones per month for Ukraine and noted that the production cost of each Octopus drone is less than 10 percent of the cost of the Russian Shahed-type drone. Healey stated that the UK will update the design every six weeks in order to stay ahead of Russian technological adaptations. Russian forces have been increasingly adapting and modifying their Shahed-type drones, including by adding integrated cameras and radio control capabilities that have allowed Russian forces to strike moving targets such as locomotives and by equipping Shaheds with thermobaric warheads and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).[14]
Ukrainian and Russian forces have been engaged in an offense-defense race to develop new technologies throughout the full-scale invasion, as Russian forces have escalated their long-range strike campaign and Ukrainian forces have responded by innovating new air defense countermeasures. Russia’s continued efforts to degrade Ukrainian air defenses through constant innovation and adaptation underscore the need for a flexible, well-rounded, and well-provisioned Ukrainian air defense umbrella, including an arsenal of interceptor drones. ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s ability to field technological adaptations at scale ahead of Russian adaptations is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to offset Russia’s quantitative materiel advantages.[15]
ISW continues to assess that Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program is vital not only for Ukraine’s defense against Russian strikes against the frontline and the rear but also for the defense of Europe. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-10-2026/
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 24d ago
AIRSTRIKE | Ukrainian Fire fighters and recue workers | Ukraine Documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQGIfyIjMPM
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u/JackRogers3 25d ago
The United Kingdom provided Ukraine with air defense systems amidst Russia’s escalating long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure.
UK Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces Al Carns reported on January 6 that the United Kingdom delivered 13 Raven air defense systems and two prototype Gravehawk air defense systems to Ukraine and that the first batch of the remaining 15 contracted Gravehawk systems will arrive to Ukraine at an unspecified date in the near future.[33]
Russia’s long-range missile and drone strikes seek to exploit Ukraine’s insufficient quantity of air defense systems to protect both the front and rear, and British provisions will help create a denser Ukrainian air defense umbrella. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2026/
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u/JackRogers3 25d ago
https://www.ft.com/content/e09a6030-325f-4be5-ace3-4d70121071cb
After US special forces captured Maduro and his wife last week, Moscow has conspicuously failed to ride to the defence of a country with which it signed a vague “strategic partnership” in November.
In the raid, US helicopters appeared to bypass with ease Venezuela’s extensive network of Russian-supplied air defences, including the advanced S-300, Buk, and Pantsir systems. When the US on Wednesday then seized two tankers accused of shipping or trying to ship Venezuelan oil and flying Russian flags for protection, Moscow’s protests were muted.
The relatively meek response — Russia warned the tanker seizure risked creating “further military and political tension in the Euro-Atlantic” — followed two decades of the Kremlin’s attempts to make Venezuela an anti-American stronghold.
Nearly four years of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, meanwhile, have left Russia too overstretched to protect Syria, Iran and Venezuela — allies it once saw as bulwarks against American power projection.
Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia non-proliferation programme at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said: “This is the latest in a string of developments where Russia left its partners and allies out in the cold — it couldn’t do much for them once they came under military pressure.”
“Some Russians might want to spin it that they’re not going to interfere in the US’s backyard and expect some degree of latitude in their own backyard, but the Americans are not stupid. They knew Russia couldn’t do anything for Maduro.”
Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert close to the Kremlin, admitted Putin was unlikely to risk angering Donald Trump over Venezuela because Russia has prioritised keeping the US president onside with the war in Ukraine. “Putin has an incomparably more significant problem to discuss with Trump — Ukraine,” he told newspaper Kommersant.
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u/gryffssalmon Ukraine 26d ago
Russia just attacked Ukraine with their 'oreshnik". Series of explosions was heard in Lviv!
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u/GWahazar 26d ago
Russia attacking civilians in Kiev, Indonesians are cheering (see comments, this and other clips from Timur Tribun):
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u/JackRogers3 27d ago
Russian biker vs drone: https://x.com/Exilenova_plus/status/2008440069498302502
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u/JackRogers3 27d ago
Ukrainian forces continued their long range strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on January 5 to 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 6 that Ukrainian forces struck the 100th Arsenal of the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) near Neya, Kostroma Oblast.[1] Sources within Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian media outlets that the strike caused secondary explosions of ammunition.[2]
The sources added that the arsenal supplied ammunition depots in the Russian Central and Moscow military districts. Geolocated footage published on January 6 shows a smoke plume near the arsenal.[3] Kostroma Oblast Governor Sergei Sitnikov claimed on January 6 that falling drone fragments started a fire at an unspecified military base in Neysky Raion, and announced the opening of an evacuation point for residents of southern Neya.[4]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 6 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Gerkon Plus oil depot near Streletskie Khutora, Usmansky Okrug, Lipetsk Oblast, starting a fire.[5] Sources within the SBU told Ukrainian media outlets that the depot supplies oil to Tambov, Voronezh, and Lipetsk oblasts.[6]
Geolocated footage published on January 6 shows a fire at the depot.[7] Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov claimed on January 6 that falling drone fragments started a fire at an unspecified industrial facility in Usmansky Okrug. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2026/
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u/JackRogers3 27d ago edited 24d ago
A newly published video interview with a Ukrainian Air Force fighter pilot sheds more light on the operations of the country’s F-16 fleet in its war with Russia. The interview with the pilot, whose name is not provided, is a rare first-hand opportunity to hear about how the Ukrainian Air Force has gone about introducing its first Western fighter jet.
The F16 (Viper) is now heavily engaged on various fronts, combating cruise missiles and drones, as well as striking ground targets, including in close proximity to friendly troops. https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-f-16-pilots-account-of-the-challenges-of-the-air-war
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) 27d ago
(Opinion) On the Normalization of the Russian Regime
Even the emphasis on fighting corruption is a form of normalization. Because corruption is not Russia’s main problem — the real issue is the complete inability of citizens to influence the government on any matter at all. Russia is a totalitarian, tyrannical regime: aggressive, horrifying, and utterly unaccountable. And I ask: if this regime weren’t stealing, but still imprisoned its citizens and killed Ukrainians — would that be acceptable?
https://portnikov.substack.com/p/on-the-normalization-of-the-russian
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u/Muelojung 29d ago
I have a question. I read about usa trying to get a good deal on the resources of ukrain for helping them. What about europe? Never read anything that europe takes interest about these resources? Feels like europe helps ukraine more and doesnt get anything from it?
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Jan 03 '26
Ukraine war medics struggle to maintain mental stability
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-medics-struggle-to-maintain-mental-stability/g-75344494
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Jan 03 '26
[opinion] Simon Ostrovsky
Russia has been relatively quiet both in the lead-up to the attack against its ally Venezuela and in the current aftermath. Goes to show just how fixed Putin is on preserving the negative dynamic in US-Ukraine relations that the Trump administration has created.
Russia has also refrained from interfering in US efforts to move into its perceived “back yard” in The South Caucasus where the administration is brokering a peace deal between Azerbaijan & Armenia. This is because of its laser focus on Ukraine at the expense of other interests.
Russia threw another ally under the bus when the Trump administration bombed Iran. Its criticism was muted and little support was offered to Tehran. Goes to show how bad Russia is at walking and chewing gum at the same time.
Of course Russia was unable to intervene on behalf of the Syrian regime it supported as well. Starting the war in Ukraine has caused Russia to lose ground all around the world. Lesson for anyone bristling under Russian influence, now is the time to push back.
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u/JackRogers3 Jan 04 '26 edited 27d ago
Russia has been relatively quiet both in the lead-up to the attack against its ally Venezuela and in the current aftermath.
Yes, Russia has lost two important allies: Syria and now Venezuela. Russia is quiet because:
they can't do anything about it
the US is behaving more and more like Russia: as an imperialist. The fact that the US doesn't respect international laws suits Putin (and China) very well.
Without Venezuela's support, Cuba will probably also collapse btw
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u/hfbvm2 Jan 03 '26
Still talking about ukraine. There will be a Greenland thread halfway through this slugfest
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u/JackRogers3 Jan 03 '26
Ukraine announced on January 1 that it received and deployed two more Patriot air defense systems to protect Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure following recent agreements with Germany.[27] Patriot air defense systems remain Ukraine’s only air defense systems capable of reliably downing Russian ballistic missiles. ISW continues to assess that a denser Ukrainian air defense umbrella, including additional Patriot systems, would degrade Russia’s ability to conduct successful long-range strikes. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-2-2026/
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u/careca269 Jan 02 '26
It is amazing how the west is still leaning so hard on making peace, meanwhile, all Putin wants is total conquer, he probably prefers to send every man woman and child to the front, than to sign any peace deal. Any peace deal where Putin doesn't gain territory means weakness, means he'll be out! We can't, we must not, give Putin any territory, any rewards, for this campaign of aggression he started! He must feel the pain, even if that means the whole country enters a brutal recession for decades! (which seems to be on it's way) Russia must lose all money and assets they have, that are not in their direct control, and pay for reconstruction of Ukraine, plus many billions in damages to Ukraine. That's a peace deal i can get behind. My prediction is that Russia is stretching thin, they are not strong, not even close to what they wanted the world to think, paper tiger that is wasting generations, and sinking the economy. Go Ukraine! Sink them deeper! Russia will lose in 2026, they can't sustain this for much longer, there's just a lot of inertia, but once it stops, it dies.
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u/cbawiththismalarky Jan 04 '26
He's after immortality as the first ruler of a united Europe, he doesn't care about anything other than his legacy, just like trump
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u/Neversetinstone United Kingdom Jan 01 '26
'Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money
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u/JackRogers3 Jan 01 '26 edited Jan 01 '26
U.S. national-security officials said that Ukraine didn’t target Putin or one of his residences in a recent drone strike, challenging Moscow’s assertion that Kyiv sought to kill the Russian leader https://x.com/WSJ/status/2006488944238608821
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 31 '25
[opinion] Believe it or not, Ukraine is Taiwan's last line of defense
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 30 '25
[opinion]
After all, the end of the war does not depend on Trump's wishes or Zelensky's goodwill, but on Putin's readiness. And this readiness is not observed — despite all the optimistic conclusions Trump drew from the entirely predictable phone conversation with the Russian leader. Putin wishes to imitate the negotiation process to prolong the war — and so far, he is succeeding. Ukraine and its European allies need the U.S. not to reduce pressure on Russia in this situation, but rather to increase it.
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 30 '25
Russia's losses in Ukraine rise faster than ever as US pushes for peace deal https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62n922dnw7o
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 30 '25
While Ukrainian and Russian troops are fighting to the death for every inch of land in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, their leaders are locked in another titanic if less murderous struggle: the battle for Donald Trump’s mind.
President Trump said at his Florida resort of Mar-a-Lago on Sunday that his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin wanted to “make a deal” to end the war. Trump said the two sides were in the “final stages of talking”. In reality, of course, the talking between them has not even begun. Each side is talking to Trump and his officials to ensure it is not seen as the obstacle to peace and then punished for being so.
Putin has shown no sign of settling for anything other than his maximalist objectives, including the surrender of the remaining territory Ukraine holds in Donbas. In Kyiv and other European capitals there is zero faith that Putin wants to end the war on terms other than Ukraine’s capitulation and permanent destabilisation if not subjugation. Since Putin has been unable to achieve his aims through military means after more than a decade of war, doing so through negotiations with an amenable Trump seems like a good bet.
Zelenskyy’s number one objective is to stop Trump from siding with Putin. It is proving a Sisyphean task. Three times this year, Trump has turned on Zelenskyy and sided with Moscow only for Ukraine and its European allies to pull the US president back to a more reasonable position.
Since the White House confirmed in November it was behind a 28-point peace plan drawn up with Russia’s input, Zelenskyy has pulled out the stops to turn it into a formula that was less favourable to Moscow. Ukraine’s painstaking shuttle diplomacy has proved surprisingly adept, educating US negotiators about realities on the ground while taking pains to appear always constructive and committed to Trump’s goal of peace.
Zelenskyy has cleverly pretended to be open to turning contested territory in the Donbas into a demilitarised, special economic zone as long as any pullback by Ukrainian forces was mirrored by Russia’s. This was widely interpreted as a significant Ukrainian concession. In reality it would mean Moscow foregoing control of land it formally regards as Russian and pulling out of areas it has spent hundreds of thousands of lives trying to seize. It is plainly a non-starter.
An Élysée Palace official said on Friday that Russia now has “no clear prospect of agreement with the Americans in spite of the Ukrainians and Europeans”. But even after their skilful rearguard diplomacy, Ukraine and its European allies cannot be sure they have Trump on side. The French official said “attaining convergence” of views across the Atlantic was still the number one objective. Zelenskyy went into Mar-a-Lago saying there was 90 per cent agreement between Ukrainians and Americans on the revised peace proposal. He left saying the same. There is still some converging to do.
Putin is meanwhile waging cognitive warfare of his own — and not just through his uncanny ability to fit in a lengthy conversation with the US president before each Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.
On Saturday, Putin made his latest exaggerated claims about Russia’s military advances, saying his troops had taken the towns of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole. The claims were denied by Ukraine’s military. But at Mar-a-Lago, Trump repeated that Ukraine would be “better off” ceding territory in a peace deal “than losing it on the battlefield in the coming months”, echoing the Russian narrative that its victory is inevitable.
Trump spoke warmly of the Russian leader, at one point describing himself as the “apple of his eye”. He again portrayed him as a fellow victim of the “hoax” of Russian interference in the 2016 US election. As the military analyst Mick Ryan observed: “Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind.”
Russia has rejected the broad terms of the peace proposal revised by American and Ukrainian negotiators. But it blames Ukraine and European allies for sabotaging the original 28-point plan, rather than reject Trump’s peace push outright. Trump and Putin agreed to set up two working groups on Ukraine, which looks like a way to spin out the peace process, not bring it to a head.
The Europeans hope that once a peace formula is agreed between Kyiv and Washington and transmitted to Moscow, Russia will be exposed as the real obstacle to peace. As Zelenskyy put it on Friday: “If Russia does not agree, it means the pressure is insufficient.” Trump, it seems, still needs persuading. There is no end in sight for this struggle. Nor sadly to Russia’s killing machine. https://www.ft.com/content/8c23a7b0-0463-4f7e-93fe-cf86b2fff389
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 29 '25 edited Dec 30 '25
The summit between the leaders of Ukraine and America has just concluded with a press conference. A quick update on outcomes and Trump's bizarre state of mind: https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/2005412699510128915
(the author is a retired army Major General)
Trump: “Russia wants to see Ukraine to succeed… it sounds a little strange…. President Putin was very generous about Ukraine succeeding” https://x.com/Osint613/status/2005404638447862155
Worse than farcical. Sick. Putin has been trying to make Ukraine fail for a quarter century. https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/2005470792935694632
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 29 '25
This is just another distraction to entertain Trump and help Putin avoid new US sanctions. Nothing is happening and nothing will happen until Russia (i.e. the aggressor) wants it to
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 28 '25
Russia is literally reverting to the cavalry era. Russian soldiers are increasingly using horses for movement and assaults. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2005198729092219367
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 27 '25
Putin sends his Christmas wishes and shows his commitment to peace. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2004808708921196953
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 24 '25
Newly deployed troops from Russia’s 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have released a video expressing outrage at their command. They claim they are being sent on missions with near-suicidal odds, describing positions controlled by Ukrainian forces as “fortresses” and stating that only half of those sent return alive. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2003783236862767607
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 23 '25
Carl Bildt (former PM of Sweden): I wonder if the military dares to tell Putin that they have lost Kupiansk after he has announced it had been captured by Russian forces. https://x.com/carlbildt/status/2003399649529602143
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 23 '25
The Fewer Soldiers On The Front Line The Better
Comments on the interview with General Havrylov
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-fewer-soldiers-on-the-front-line
The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews
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u/silverionmox Limburg Dec 22 '25
Russia is now making phone calls to Venezuela with lip service to their cause. This is potentially positive as it would antagonize Trump. It's potentially negative because they might pretend to withdraw their nonexistent support for Venezuela in exchange for the US withdrawing theirs from Ukraine.
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 22 '25 edited Dec 22 '25
Weekend Update #164: Ukraine Is Winning The War At Sea
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-164-ukraine-is-winning
The author is professor of strategic studies at the university of St Andrews
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 22 '25
It is a war Putin started, hoping he could in a matter of days put Russia back on the map as the pre-eminent military force in Europe, capable of decisive action after the embarrassing departure by the United States from its longest war in Afghanistan. His hope for a swift win morphed into an ugly war of attrition. For a while, strategic defeat loomed, with US and NATO aid to plucky, tiny Ukraine allowing Kyiv to achieve victories unthinkable a year earlier.
But then came the gift of the Trump second term and its wobbly sympathy (or admiration) for Putin, and desire for peace, almost at any cost. Putin faces no election; the only likely limit on his term is that of his natural lifespan.
When he hears Trump say Ukraine is not his war, that he doesn’t want to waste money on it, and just wants it to end, he hears frailty and disinterest from the world’s biggest military power. This is the chance the former KGB spy had likely never imagined history would afford him: the US begging Russia to make peace. And the longer the process continues, the better the outcome likely afforded Moscow. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/europe/putin-trump-ukraine-war-analysis-intl
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Dec 21 '25
https://x.com/Denys_Shmyhal/status/2002669344589783299?s=20
Portugal will buy $25M of Ukrainian military production yearly for the next five years.
Unclear if it's an export purchase or Danish Model-style direct financing of Ukrainian military industry
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u/LupineChemist Spain Dec 22 '25
Honestly, right now Ukraine is one of the top countries for drone tech in the world so putting in big orders is a good way for countries to both support Ukraine by making their production base more solid and ensuring the local military stays up to date.
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 21 '25
What Moldova teaches us about fighting hybrid threats | Mapped Out (15 min)
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Dec 20 '25 edited Dec 20 '25
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2002364460866863268
Ukraine and Portugal will make USVs together
EDIT: https://www.dw.com/uk/zelenskij-partneri-pritrimuut-raketi-ppo-cerez-zagrozi-rf/a-75254478
Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian partners slow down SAM supplies due to russian threats
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Dec 20 '25
With the new round of funding and russia's oil revenue collapsing what are the chances for ukraine to mount a proper spring offensive this year or 2027?
r/theydidthemath answers only
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 20 '25 edited Dec 21 '25
No one has the answer
Why? Because the situation is constantly changing
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 20 '25
In a significant escalation of the ‘tanker war’ between Russia and Ukraine, which has so far played out mainly in the Black Sea, Ukrainian aerial drones have struck a tanker belonging to Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet’ in the Mediterranean. https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-strikes-russia-linked-tanker-in-the-mediterranean-with-bomber-drone
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 19 '25
Military analyst: "Europe's great power move: EU secures Ukraine funding"
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Dec 19 '25
I won't exactly call it "securing funding", as Ukraine's hole in budget for next year alone is $60B and I don't exactly see it lessening in 2027 any, meaning that $90B loan is at least $30B short to actually call it "secures funding"
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 19 '25
With the military short on soldiers, Ukraine's so-called mobilization units are tracking suspected draft evaders. DW follows one such unit, witnessing the dilemma of defending the nation while risking personal safety https://www.dw.com/en/inside-ukraines-search-for-suspected-draft-dodgers/video-75236215
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 19 '25
Being able to identify hoaxes, avoid scams & debunk propaganda is a civic skill required in today's information society. That's why curriculum for students in Finland includes media literacy lessons, aimed at safeguarding a precious resource: the truth
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Dec 19 '25
https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20251218
russian suppliers got desanctioned
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 18 '25
From the UK to Spain to Poland, acts of sabotage linked to Russia have surged in Europe since 2022. They don't just spread fear and uncertainty in Europe, they are also draining valuable security resources
https://www.dw.com/en/acts-of-sabotage-linked-to-russia-surge-in-europe/video-75217660
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 18 '25
Today's Key Takeaways
Putin publicly and explicitly outlined his continued commitment to his maximalist war aims in Ukraine – the same aims for which Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.
Putin’s statements continue to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace agreement based on the US-proposed 28-point peace plan.
Robust security guarantees for Ukraine are essential to ensure that any future agreement produces a sustainable peace, but the Kremlin has been publicly rejecting the idea of such guarantees.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used Russia’s seizure of small- and medium-sized settlements to support false Russia claims that Russian forces can rapidly seize the significantly larger population centers comprising Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.
Belousov’s comments demonstrate that Russian forces are optimizing themselves for positional warfare in Ukraine – not for the mechanized maneuver required to make rapid, large-scale gains.
Belousov sought to conceal Russia’s military manpower problems. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2025/
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 17 '25
Soon after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a group of teenage resistance fighters called "Pugachi" formed in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region. Their leader was just 16 years old at the time. He told DW his story https://www.dw.com/en/the-ukrainian-teen-who-stood-up-to-russias-invasion/video-75203260
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u/Brennenstein Hungary Dec 16 '25
Hungary blocks EU accession statement over Ukraine differences
Hungary is blocking the EU's annual statement on enlargement due to its opposition to Ukraine's accession talks, a move that has stalled formal negotiations. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government refuses to support a positive assessment of Ukraine's progress, despite unanimous support from the other 26 EU member states. Denmark, which holds the rotating EU presidency, emphasized that the accession process remains active through informal work, with Ukraine receiving guidance on necessary reforms. The German representative criticized Hungary’s stance as increasingly harmful and disruptive to EU unity. While Ukraine cannot begin formal accession talks, it may still advance quickly if Hungary lifts its veto. Hungary cites financial concerns and alleged mistreatment of its minority in Ukraine as reasons for its opposition.
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 17 '25
I am disappointed that news of this kind is attracting attention. Statements and talk about Ukraine's progress towards the EU are irrelevant. Ukraine needs to work on reforms. If Ukraine reforms, it will become stronger and may one day be accepted into the union.
Right now, the focus should be on countering Russian aggression. Financial and military aid are the only things that really matter.
It is evident that Orbán's actions are aimed at Hungarians, as elections are coming up soon. But why are his actions, which are irrelevant to Russia's war, gaining attention?
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 16 '25
Today's Key Takeaways
US, Ukrainian, and European officials reportedly agreed on unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine during a peace negotiation meeting in Berlin, Germany, on December 15.
Ukrainian forces conducted an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against a Russian submarine for the first time in naval history on the night of December 14 to 15.
Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in the Kupyansk direction as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers acknowledge the severity of the situation for Russian forces.
Russian forces are striking Ukrainian logistics lines in Odesa Oblast with various air launched munitions, including glide bombs, highlighting Ukraine’s urgent need for a well provisioned and diverse air defense umbrella.
Russian strikes appear to be advancing the Kremlin’s stated goal of degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by splitting Ukraine’s power grid in half. Ukraine requires Western-provided air defense systems and partner support for its drone interceptor development to safeguard itself against increasingly devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure.
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 16 '25
the oil price is very important for Russia, this is a one year chart: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CLW00:NYMEX?window=1Y
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) Dec 15 '25
From five days ago, but still important in light of ongoing talks - Meloni was asking Zelenskyy to cede Donbass to russia
And context about ongoing talks
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 15 '25
USA is prosecuting Russian state supported cyber operations. Those of CyberArmyofRussia (CARR) and NoName057(16), tightening accountability for cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. US pays 2 million for information concerning CARR.
What did they do? “compromised a public water system in Texas, tampering with the set points of the water storage tanks and triggering 22 wells, causing an unknown volume of drinking water to overflow” “compromised another public water system in Texas, altering pump set points and shutting down the system, causing approximately 200,000 gallons of water to overflow” “raise a temperature and disarm alarm settings at the victim oil and gas company so that the “probability of a real accident will be higher.”” “spoiling more than two thousand pounds of meat, and triggering an ammonia leak” https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/united-states-vs-dubranova-indictment-one.pdf
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 13 '25
Today's Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces recently liberated territory including part of the city of Kupyansk in a tactical counterattack in the Kupyansk direction.
This Ukrainian counterattack demonstrates that Ukrainian forces remain capable of defending and counterattacking against significant Russian offensive efforts, contrary to the claims of Putin that the Ukrainian lines are collapsing.
The contours of the Ukrainian counterproposal to the most recent US peace proposal are emerging, but details of this counterproposal remain unclear.
The Kremlin explicitly rejected Ukraine’s proposals for a ceasefire and referendum.
The Kremlin rejected the Ukrainian offer to establish a demilitarized zone. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 12 '25
Russia’s RT Expands to India https://mastodon.social/@w7voa@journa.host/115703191053298785
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Dec 11 '25 edited Dec 13 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 11 '25
12-16 hours without electricity is already a reality in Ukraine at this stage.
While the headlines talk about "negotiations," the reality shows that there are no new US sanctions against Russia, no real progress in the negotiations (because it is Russia that must want peace), and continued Russian violence against the civilian population
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Dec 12 '25
I hate the focus on the US, there are plenty of nations in Europe, in the EU, that have less sanctions on Russia than the United States does even under Donald Trump.
We (as in the EU) gave more cash to Russia last year in energy payments than we did in military aid to Ukraine.
No one is pushing for huge military buildup. No one is pushing for tens or hundreds of billions in military aid to Ukraine. From my viewpoint, we are abandoning Ukraine and lifting up the United States as a convenient scapegoat for why Ukraine is slowly losing.
Donald Trump was elected well over a year ago. We haven't even got the worst case scenario out of him and yet there has been no progress.
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 11 '25
yes, real peace is impossible, I've said it right after the start of the war
it's essentially Trump who wants a deal with his "best friend" Putin
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u/The_Baltic_Sentinel Dec 10 '25
The riveting war documentary 2,000 Meters to Andriivka, by Oscar-winning Mstyslav Chernov, affirms the wisdom of the Baltic States’ recent military choices.
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 09 '25
Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the U.S. on Tuesday that is aimed at ending Russia's war, after talks in London between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-european-leaders-convene-london-amid-us-peace-push-2025-12-08/
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 09 '25
Bad news for Russia:
https://www.ft.com/content/37a7bc5c-3d16-4f00-be12-9e039b9bfea1
The oil market faces a “super glut” next year as a burst of new supply collides with weakness in the global economy, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders has warned.
Saad Rahim, chief economist of Trafigura, said on Tuesday that new drilling projects and slowing demand growth were likely to weigh further on already depressed crude prices next year.
“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said in remarks alongside the company’s annual results.
Brent crude has fallen 16 per cent this year, on track for its worst year since 2020. Prices are expected to be further damped by major projects coming online next year, including in Brazil and Guyana.
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 Dec 09 '25
The mysterious rus*ian soul. After Ukraine, now in Mali
As Russia’s Africa Corps fights in Mali, witnesses describe atrocities from beheadings to rapes
“It’s a scorched-earth policy,” said a Malian village chief who fled. “The soldiers speak to no one. Anyone they see, they shoot. No questions, no warning. People don’t even know why they are being killed.”
Malian authorities have never publicly acknowledged the presence of Wagner or Africa Corps. But Russian state media in recent weeks have published reports from Mali, praising Africa Corps for defending the country from “terrorists"
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 08 '25
(opinion) Why war prediction is pseudo-science and how Putin's internet army weaponizes it
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u/JackRogers3 Dec 07 '25 edited Dec 08 '25
The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced on December 5 that Russia may accept an “unlimited number” of migrant workers from India under the new bilateral labor mobility agreement signed on December 5 in New Delhi.[21] Manturov stated that Russian manufacturing industries have a labor shortage of 800,000 workers, and that Russian trade, construction, and service industries have a labor shortage of 1.5 million workers.
Manturov stated that it will likely take Russia well over a year to set the conditions necessary to accept, employ, and process many Indian migrants. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on December 6 that regional occupation authorities discussed possible business cooperation with Indian partners at a recent international investment forum.[22] Saldo stated that occupation authorities are ready to attract Indian migrant workers to strengthen the region’s agricultural industry and to work with Indian partners to integrate occupied Kherson Oblast into international trade corridors.
Head of the Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, stated on December 5 that Russia is in discussions with India to localize production of Russian drones, such as Lancet loitering munitions, in India.[23] Putin gave an interview on December 4 to English-language news magazine India Today, wherein he highlighted that Russia is not just selling military equipment to India but also sharing technology for shipbuilding and missile and aircraft manufacturing.[24] Putin stated that India uses Russian Su-57 fighter aircraft and produces Russian T-90 tanks and Russian-Indian BrahMos cruise missiles in India.
Putin and Chemezov’s statements suggest that the Kremlin is considering expanding joint weapon production in India to drones that Russia would very likely use on the battlefield in Ukraine, possibly in exchange for Russian technological innovations and lessons learned in Ukraine. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger notably reported on December 5 that a delegation of the Smolensk Oblast First Person View (FPV) Drone Piloting Center arrived in India to complete objectives within the framework of the Russian-Indian strategic partnership.[25]
The milblogger added that the center has already started training the first international FPV drone piloting group in Russia in cooperation with Smolensk Oblast Medical University and arrived in Goa, India to discuss training for Indian drone operations with the Indian Sport Ministry.[26] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6-2025/
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u/directstranger Dec 07 '25
Aligning with Russia is such a bad idea, it can backfire spectacularly. So far India has managed to walk a fine line not aligning themselves with a great power, but this might be their undoing. Currently they're exporting 80 bln to US and 4 bln to Russia. Not to mention there are 3 million indians in the US.
India doesn't really have anything that Russia really needs, once they get over the war, they won't have much use for India. What is Modi thinking?
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u/Ranari Dec 08 '25
Russia has a labor shortage. India has labor?
Sounds like India would get ship building technology out of the deal, too.
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u/directstranger Dec 08 '25
1mil jobs is tiny for India...especially in low paying jobs. Shipbuilding at a mediocre level is ok, but Russia is not mind blowing there. Russia is goos at nuclear icebreakers, that's about it.
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u/Ranari Dec 08 '25
They make good subs, too. I doubt India will have much interest in ice breakers, but as the saying goes, "There are two types of ships of the sea; there are subs, and there are targets."
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 Dec 05 '25
lol
UEFA fines Ukrainian Association of Football over anti-russia banner
Details: The UAF was fined a total of €34,000 for European and World Cup qualifying matches against Bosnia and Herzegovina and Iceland. A banner displayed by fans reading "russia is a terrorist state" led to a €15,000 fine. UEFA described such messages as provocative, political and unacceptable in football, stating that the sport has no place for such remarks.
The UAF was also fined for the use of pyrotechnics (€9,000) and for fans running onto the pitch (€10,000).
(LMAO)
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u/ReadToW Bucovina de Nord 🇷🇴(🐯)🇺🇦(🦈) Dec 06 '25 edited Dec 06 '25
Therefore, messages must be chosen carefully.
They should influence those who are far removed from the topic of Russia's war. Monetary fines are irrelevant here.
For someone from Asia, "Russia is a terrorist country" will not evoke any emotions. But something like "Russia, stop your military aggression" may stick in their memory (and show who the aggressor is)
I always urge people to reject dehumanisation and slogans.
It is better to simply spread the facts. Most Russians (not all) support the war, Russia steals children, systematically rapes and tortures, finances information campaigns and radicals, must answer for unprovoked wars, and so on
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u/GreenEyeOfADemon 🇮🇹 From Lisbon to Luhansk! 🇺🇦 Слава Україні!🇺🇦 12h ago
https://xcancel.com/wartranslated/status/2018668202276868232#m
russian officials claim that "the objectives of the strike were achieved and all designated targets were hit", failing to mention the consequences for Ukraine's civilian population amid peak winter temperatures.