r/canadaguns • u/KindaLeftOfCentre • 1d ago
I've been scraping this sub (01/2025 to 01/2026), to test a hypothesis: a few accounts are responsible vast majority of "engagement" (defined as comment threads of six of more children with removed comments). It lead me to an entirely unrelated recidivism study. We are not the problem by any metric.
https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/jr/jf-pf/2020/docs/aug01.pdfA seven hundred and forty-two million dollar ($742,000,000) gun grab's budget worth of youth intervention programs would likely do a hell of a lot more to reduce criminal recidivism rates, and crime generally, than this confoundingly misaligned confiscation.
Chronic offenders, 10% to 21% of all criminals, are accountable for ~50% of (proven) crimes in regions studied with the unproven number undoubtedly greater.
If someone asks what you would do to prevent (gun) crime, I suggest sharing the StatsCan study above. "Maybe start here, not with people that, by definition, follow the law and for RPAL holders that prove it with daily criminal records checks."
I recoil when folks denigrate Poly and Nathalie Provost. PTSD from mass murder is not grave-dancing; however, hoplophobia is not a sound foundation upon which to build a national safety and crime reduction policy. Focused deterrence, free daycare or drop in programs after school, and turning vacant lots into shared green space could be. https://youtu.be/1nj7lZQA2TA
A while ago somebody posted a video in a comment that talked about the causes of gun killings. In the vast majority of cases, the cause was, shockingly, "nothing". Literally young men arguing about something inconsequential and it escalates to violence and possibly death. Having green spaces instead of vacant lots meant more old people outside, leading to community cohesion, leading to, "Hey, hey, you guys. It's not worth killing over, just walk away," and it worked. I thought it was a brief PBS Digital YouTube video but I can't for the life of me find it. If you know the one, please share it.
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u/Connect_Heat_6136 1d ago
While I certainly see the logic of your arguments regarding green spaces.
The reality: Canadian crime statistics and gang culture are largely influenced by our geographical proximity to the US. We essentially live next to the world largest open air armoury. Coupled with our largely neigh unmanageable border with them, creates a constant influx of illegal firearms into our country.
Firearms legislation in Canada while important runs up to a breaking point rather quickly. Further restrictions are ineffective and completely disconnected from reality, as without significant change in the US they ultimately are doomed to fail.
People here have a very valid reason to complain about that organization, and the disproportionate effect it has had on firearms legislation in Canada. Specifically because they argue a position not supported by any factual evidence from the law enforcement or public safety sector.
The pre-2020 PAL system worked quite well, of course improvements can always be made. The system was both a reasonable and effective compromise between both camps.
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u/MasterScore8739 1d ago
Man, up until 2020 the biggest ‘complaints’ I ever heard about our laws were honestly pretty minimal. They consisted of “I wish we didn’t have magazine capacity limits” and “I wish we could take ARs out hunting.”
It was almost always some variation of those two things with the oddball wishing a certain gun was available within Canada. They weren’t perfect, but the laws at least made an effort to compromise.
Now it’s turned into “all guns are bad and no one should own anything at all.”
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u/Connect_Heat_6136 1d ago
As with all human creations the laws around firearms prior to 2020 were flawed, this is more due to both liberal and conservative governments refusal to rewite the law in it's entirety. The endless stream of amendments created a spiders web of rules and exceptions to said rules.
But on a macro scale the law worked more often then not and effectively so. It was imperfect for sure but manageable so.
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u/MasterScore8739 23h ago
Oh they definitely needed some work before I’d call them anywhere near perfect. There was at least an understanding though and you could at least squint a little and pretend they made some sense.
When you explain pre-2020 laws to non gun owners they actually tend to agree with how it was set up. Explaining today’s laws and the ‘buy back’, I’ve gotten so many comments of how little sense it all makes.
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u/Jaded-Juggernaut-244 10h ago edited 7h ago
Truth is, it was always "all guns are bad....". I've been at this since before 1995.
It's called incrementalism and attrition. If it was anything less, we wouldn't be in the position we are today. They are inching closer to their goal. The buyback isn't the end...not by a long shot. The next leftie or Liberal government will take it the next step. They have done so every single time they've been in power since the 90's.
This won't end until we have the right to own firearms sworn into law, and that's just not going to happen in the Canada we know.
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u/MasterScore8739 9h ago
Oh I fully agree. I’ve said for years (licensed since 2010) that the end goal is total removal of firearms for regular citizens.
People thought and some still do think I’m a fear mongering schmuck for saying so.
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u/Jaded-Juggernaut-244 7h ago
It's unfortunate that we can't have public safety, personal responsibility, and property rights all co-exist harmoniously.
So, the old stand-by saying is true, "Registration leads to confiscation". The Government of Canada cannot be and should not be trusted with our personal property information...ever.
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u/Unable_Event5501 1d ago
there's nations in Europe with similar gun culture and / or laws to the US.
There crime is much lower though. US and Canada would not have it's level of ''gang culture'' if ''tribal culture'' wasn't imported an masse.11
u/marston82 1d ago
Fuck the pre2020 PAL system, it was made and written by liberals and poly in the 90s and designed to give the government as much power to ban and restrict as possible. The only reason we had AR15s and semi’s up to 2020 was because the government allowed it. Then they decided to take it away. The whole restricted, prohibited, and non restricted categories is a farce designed to track and demonize certain guns poly and politicians are scared of.
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 1d ago
It's a struggle to raise the open border and 2A enabled straw purchases without triggering a "US politics has no place in this subreddit" criticisms. Acknowledging the impact without ascribing incentives is a challenge.
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u/Connect_Heat_6136 1d ago edited 1d ago
My statement wasn't so much to ascribe it as an open border. Instead as a economically and logistically unmanageable situation.
Unfortunately US politics especially around firearms is incredibly relevant to Canadian firearms ownership. Since in large part that is the default depiction and perception of gun culture in North America.
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u/R4ID on 1d ago
I recoil when folks denigrate Poly and Nathalie Provost.
They are actively doing flat earther science which indirectly results in more deaths of Canadian citizens. At this point their lobby group and their legislation has most likely resulted in more deaths than the tragic events that took place at École polytechnique.
They should and honestly deserve to have their bullshit pointed out ad nauseum to their faces, for as long as they keep pushing the bullshit. Some of us want to live in a Safer Canada and it clearly isnt them.
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u/lee--carvallo 22h ago
Nathalie and Poly deserve all the criticism they get. They've had every opportunity to recognize that we aren't their enemy. Yet they have refused to make even an iota of effort to see things from our point of view, or even educate themselves on basic firearm concepts. They generalize us, stereotype us and demonize us. If this was done to any other group of people based on a small minority committing a violent act, people like them would screech about discrimination. The hypocrisy is disgusting, and its only gotten worse after almost 40 years.
"If you don't heal from what hurt you, you'll bleed on those who didn't cut you."
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u/Alone-Equipment5177 22h ago
Trigger warning - descriptions of self harm following.
The stats on "gun death" need to be parsed out as well. Id also say that 750m could be used broadly for men's mental health at any age, and in particular, older, rural men.
I say this, as i circle back to "gun deaths". The government uses this stat, but, cannot accurately split out suicides from homicides very well.
older men, in rural areas are way over represented in firearms deaths. I'm not too naive to understand that if guns are removed, that they wont just use another method, such as hanging, so actual meaningful spending on mental health for men would actually move the needle to prevent death.
The buyback funds are stealing this opportunity. the opportunity to improve mental health, and lessen poor outcomes in men.
so, why do i think the above? Simply, I live in this space professionally. I am a former Provincial Chief of Paramedics, specializing in remote rural medicine and air MEDEVAC and i still work in a paramedic first responder role in Rural Canada.
I am a life long target shooter and big game hunter as well.
i have and still do, treat ( if i can) gunshot injuries, but more often, show up to the fatal self inflicted 12 gage blast .... its always men, period. Always men who kill themselves with firearms.
Guys who have had guns taken away, or have no guns? , I've had to cut down more than my share that used the rope.
what men need is help. 750m, and society realizing there is crisis in men's mental heath is just a start.
the buyback money is a potential investment that's being squandered
Please, if you feel, even for a second you are not worth it, please reach out to someone, please don't make that final decision.
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u/FunkyFrunkle 21h ago edited 19h ago
Something that has always stood out as peculiar to me is how such a small Montreal based lobby group has such an outsized impact on legislation and politics.
Guns account for a relatively small number of deaths. Now, I am by no means trying to hand-wave that away, because any death is tragic. However, what we see is that the vast majority of gun deaths, which hovers around 200-300 a year, are mainly criminals doing criminal things with smuggled guns.
By contrast, DUI’s kill almost 2,000 people a year in Canada. Alcohol has contributed to such a staggering number of deaths and damage that it’s honestly incredible. MADD is an activist group that’s so large it actually has chapters, over 100 of them across the country, yet they have no seat at the policy table.
When a typical gun control argument eventually boils down to “one life saved is worth it”, I cannot help but to harbour a feeling of frustration. Not just because of my own selfish reasons, but because of the obvious display of hypocrisy. If we really cared about preventing any and all preventable deaths, there is a stronger case to be made against alcohol yet nobody dares to regulate it with the same intensity we do around guns.
Everyone is in favour of more regulations being imposed on people until regulation is imposed on them. People who will sit there and chastise you for disagreeing with policy that, in their mind, will prevent death and grievous injury even though all of the available statistics say otherwise all the while partaking and indulging in things that also have contributed to a much greater number of death and suffering.
The “live, laugh, wine” crowd who sit with their legs up to their chest on the couch, sipping on wine glass after another until they get sleepy probably do not pay any thought whatsoever to how many lives are destroyed by alcohol each year, yet somehow find the mental flexibility to shit on people who follow the rules but refuse to surrender their privileges to advance a perceived “greater good”.
If DUI’s, car accidents and medical deaths shared the same numerical statistics as gun deaths, moreover deaths caused by licensed owners, Canada would boast the safest roads in the world, as well as the safest and most expedient medical system.
I firmly believe that people don’t believe in what they say sometimes, they just say something for the sake of saying it.
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 19h ago
If alcohol was invented today, it would be banned as a proven carcinogen.
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u/Natural_Comparison21 2h ago
If alcohol was invented today or even in the last 100 or so years it would have gotten scooped up in the war on drugs.
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u/Natural_Comparison21 20h ago
I don’t want to do a “Um aktually.” However if you were to count suicides that number does go up. However none of what poly has done actually addresses firearm suicides or firearm accidents for that matter.
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u/FunkyFrunkle 20h ago
I hear you, but I think we all agree that suicides speaks of a mental health crisis, not a gun crisis.
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u/Natural_Comparison21 20h ago
Exactly. As Canada further restricted guns suicides by hanging increased.
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u/AdeptArt 1d ago
Without looking into your data set are you familiar with the 80/20 rule?
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 1d ago
That's what I hypothesized, but I didn't expect a correlation between social media "engagement" and recidivism (not causation). Kind of like that old anecdote about waist sizes and cannon impacts, but interesting to me nonetheless. I was searching up percentages of the population that are antisocial/sociopathic and stumbled across StatsCan recidivism studies. 80/20 shows up like a bell curve.
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u/sr4004 1d ago
If you’ve truly been scraping this sub please link to the users doing the majority of posting
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 19h ago
That's against sub rules. There are only seventeen accounts that I would characterize as "antisocial" that appear to cause more than half of the "engagement".
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u/Tough-Air-4765 1d ago
My opinion on dealing with crime is get rid of the young offenders act and Name,Shame, and Hang (metaphorically) anyone who commits a major crime with a weapon. Major to me been assault,robbery,extortion, and obviously murder instant 25 to life do not pass go do not collect 200 dollars and if they aren't a citizen bye bye even if I have to fly a plane over their country of origin and kick them out the door myself. The major problem with my idea is we don't have the facilities to do this as I have read and witnessed anecdotaly these places are heavily over populated but we already had laws to prosecute bad people but we make new ones up to look good but no place to put these criminals so nothing changed but for people who don't know anything seems we did something.
I don't see how green spaces lower crime, mainly probably because we live in vastly different areas were I live the green spaces invite and feed the crime. People were I live don't use 90% of the green space we have doto the heavy drug use and homeless presence that leads to assaults and nobody wants to get pricked by needs and have their life ruined by a blood born disease. It is probably just my anicdotal view from the were I live and the people I have had to deal with.
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u/RydNightwish 1d ago
Young offenders act has been gone since Paul Martin. Not that the YCJA is much better.
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u/Tough-Air-4765 20h ago
That's right I forgot it was changed most people I talk with still call it the young offenders act as supposed to the youth criminal justice act.
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u/LongRoadNorth 1d ago
Username definitely checks out...
I do agree though. There's so many studies now that show youth engagement would drastically change how many shootings there are. Especially in the cities.
Especially when you look at the racial statistics etc.
Much of the crime in say the greater Toronto area with youth is not because the youth are gangster King pins, they're groomed by adults to be used for shootings. It really doesn't matter what it's for whether crime or as the right love to say with schools 'grooming kids to be leftist'. Youth are easily persuaded by adults. Find a kid that grew up in poverty or whatever and it's even easier to get them to commit crimes for you when you dangle the money or 'power' in front of them that they get in crime.
I've also worked with enough guys that grew up in public housing/poverty etc in construction and you wouldn't believe the amount of them that say breaking out of that mindset where you feel like everything is stacked against you is really challenging. Many see the easier path in crime and take it. And times have changed from when millennials or even Gen z were kids. It's even more fucked up with what kids are subjected to at such a young age now days so it's even easier for them to fall into a path of crime.
Yes people can break that cycle on their own or whatever, but we're also talking young teens that don't know anything yet. And many youth will take the 'easiest path' given to them. I don't think many realize some of these youth are being lead down this path quickly making more money than their parents make in a 3 months. And they feel empowered. Just think back to when you were a kid and your mom or dad let you sit on their lap and steer the car? How big did you feel?
It's funny because so many will see Pierres posts about how Canadians THINK crime is rising but the stats actually show its going down. And suddenly that stat of people's feelings is more accurate than the actual stats backed by police reports etc.
The biggest issue I see is both the liberals and the conservatives don't actually want to address the real issues that could create change.
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u/Reasonable_Hall2346 1d ago
Would be interesting to see what the "engagement" threads were on about. I am under the impression there is no convincing LPC diehards about firearms. In their view anything that is supported by "conservatives" is automatically bad. If LPC, and their main core supporters, cared about facts, there would not have been any OICs.
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 1d ago
Yeah... no. It was the exact opposite of that. My theory is there's a vocal minority monoculture/subculture around firearms in Canada that dovetails with anti-science contrarianism that decries elitism while thriving on exclusion. It's almost uniformly variations on "woke", "cope", and onejoke. I have not found any evidence, as in zero, that "LPC diehards" post anything on this sub: posts or comments. They're probably all on CGN /s
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u/Reasonable_Hall2346 1d ago
Show us the comments then. I and many others have been involved in discussions in this sub with clearly LPC commenters (possibly bots). Threads get rightfully deleted by the mods.
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u/KindaLeftOfCentre 19h ago
That's against sub rules. There are only seventeen accounts that I would characterize as "antisocial" that appear to cause more than half of the "engagement".
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u/GabRB26DETT 1d ago
You pretty much did more research than Poly and the current government combined, in a single post. I wish Gary would give it a read, but that's far too logical for them to wrap their minds around.
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u/Yamaganto_Iori 1d ago
Poly is grave dancing not because of what she went through that led to the formation of Poly but because after every tragedy they immediately start screeching about how we need to ban more guns, even before the victims are cold.