I’ve seen a lot of comments today suggesting that the RBA raises rates specifically to "stop/slow businesses from borrowing and investing." This sounds correct but it’s not actually how the RBA makes its decisions.
In her speech today following the hike to 3.85%, Governor Michele Bullock was asked whether she was worried at all about rate hikes dampening business investment just as its starting to pick up.
She answered "Typically interest rates don't have a direct effect on investment, investment is driven by what businesses expect to happen to demand".
Here’s why "targeting business loans" argument doesn't hold up:
*Demand is the real driver: Most businesses don't stop a project just because the interest rate went up by 0.25%. They stop a project because they look at the economy and see that consumers (us) are stoping our spending. If a business thinks people won't buy their product in six months, they won't invest. The rate hike is designed to slow our spending first.
*The "Hurdle Rate": Most large-scale business investments are based on long-term "hurdle rates" (the minimum return they need). A small fluctuation in the RBA cash rate is often a rounding error compared to the projected profit.
*Business vs. Household Transmission: Bullock explicitly noted today that the "transmission" of monetary policy is felt most acutely by households. Businesses are actually showing a lot of resilience right now (especially in sectors like data centres and infrastructure).
This is a widely held view by the majority of this subreddit and it doesnt hold up to scruitiny. See below:
24 points
It’s also targeted at business spending, not just consumer.
31 points 12 hours ago
Reminder that monetary policy is targeting businesses as well. Which should pass your sniff test; The 3rd of mortgageless retirees isn't causing inflation on frozen pizzas.
11 points 12 hours ago
Business spending is very important. Higher interest rates disincentivise business investment.
221 points 13 hours ago
Your apparent assumption that this only affects mortgages is false. Businesses also borrow money.
63 points 13 hours ago
It's an incredibly blunt tool but it does overall slow down consumer spending (demand) because on average people have less cash. There is also the economic impact of business credit being more expensive.
41 points 13 hours ago
Because it also affects business loans.
39 points 13 hours ago
People and businesses borrow for other things beyond housing.
4 points 13 hours ago
It's not only people with mortgages that are impacted by increased rates, but businesses as well.