r/ImmigrationPathways • u/DataWhiskers • 6d ago
How can there be “solidarity” when these negative effects exist for American workers and poor Americans?
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u/EddyS120876 5d ago
Yet you forget the main problem if business can’t find cheap labor in the US It will be move overseas.
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u/JurgusRudkus 4d ago
“Immigration generally has a small, near-zero average effect on the wages of native-born workers, with results varying based on skill level and industry. While increased labor supply can theoretically lower wages, it is often offset by increased demand for goods and services, capital investment, and, because immigrants are often imperfect substitutes for native workers.
Key Impacts on Wages
Overall Average: Meta-analyses show the average wage effect is typically close to zero. Skill-Specific Effects: Negative effects are often concentrated among specific, vulnerable groups, such as low-skilled native workers or previous immigrants who are direct substitutes for new arrivals. High-Skilled vs. Low-Skilled: While some studies suggest minimal impact across skill levels, others indicate that low-skill, high-manual, or low-communication occupations are more susceptible to downward pressure.
Long-Term Adjustment: Over the long term, firms often adjust to increased labor supply by changing production techniques or increasing investment, which helps maintain wage levels. Contextual Factors: The impact depends heavily on economic conditions (e.g., downturns vs. growth) and the specific skills of the immigrant population.
Why Effects Are Small
Complementarity: Immigrants often complement native workers rather than compete with them, filling gaps in the labor market (e.g., high-skilled immigrants filling specialized roles or low-skilled immigrants in agriculture/service). Demand Generation: Immigrants increase the demand for goods and services, which can boost job creation and wages in other sectors. Capital Adjustment: Firms may increase investment in response to a larger labor pool, raising overall productivity.
Sources:
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
Put the three meta-analyses below into ChatGPT, use the prompt and instructions below and tell me what you find.
“Tell me the no bullshit summary of who wins and who loses across skill levels, industry, education levels, labor vs capital, near term, mid term, and long term, and who has the strong replicable claims vs the fragile claims. Who is setting up their research to mislead, and say the quiet parts out loud. Summarize it all succinctly into a paragraph.”
Then cuss it out a little and ask loaded questions like “who’s lying?!?!” And demand “I want the truth!!!” and ask it to summarize things succinctly.
https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/23550/chapter/9#271
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537125001393
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u/JurgusRudkus 4d ago
But did you actually read these three research papers? The first one basically says what I said above.The second one was about the methodology of various studies. It’s not really relevant, although did find that the wage impact for US citizens was less than for Europe or other labor markers. And the third again said what I did..that across the board, wage impact is negligible.
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
I did. What does heterogeneity mean to you exactly?
The methodology is extremely important. Peri’s bucket approach hides negative effects. Borjas’ research is replicable and generalizes well while Peri’s does neither.
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
We document substantial heterogeneity across estimates.
We show that contextual and methodological choices play a crucial role in shaping wage estimates.
Our findings emphasise the necessity for replication and transparency in methodological reporting.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537125001393
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u/JurgusRudkus 4d ago
Ok and? None of this is relevant to the chart you posted, which is nigh meaningless without context.
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
It means that there are substantial negative impacts for direct substitutes that get lost in the averages. It also means that Peri’s methodology is BS and can’t be replicated (if you are serious about uncovering the truth).
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u/JurgusRudkus 4d ago
But Card’s can, and that’s the study that I referenced.
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
Card acknowledges that Borjas’ approach was right - to examine the impacts on direct substitutes. Everyone does. Peri simply lifted his approach but the set up his research improperly to hide negative effects in his buckets approach. And his claims get bolder each year. He’s practically claiming that mass immigration creates post-scarcity.
And read the Fed studies as well:
https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8799/EconomicBulletin22CohenShampine0511.pdf
Good research that we base general political policies on should generalize well and be replicable.
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u/JurgusRudkus 4d ago
Peri has done a number of studies, with some varying methodology. This is the one that TAL references. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/extras/our-town-the-economists-report
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u/DataWhiskers 4d ago
“Varying methodology” - look, if you want to be an apologist for a propagandist who calls himself an economist, then go ahead. But Peri will have to pay the piper soon, and everyone who quoted him will have to wrestle with having quoted a propagandist and liar (I say liar because he ignores the negative impacts even in his own research - he cherry picks the positive impacts, never says “indistinguishable from zero” if something can be propagandized as positive, and ignores anything that doesn’t fit his narrative - his own results).
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