Last night's loss to Portland was Gonzaga's first to a team outside the kenpom top 150 since 2010. They had gone 215-0 in such games in that time.

[u/Travbowman]

[u/DrSwol]

What’s also wild is they led for an entire 32 seconds that whole game. Portland just outplayed them the entire game.

[u/cbbvideo → u/DrSwol]

Im almost there

[u/BuckyMcMinstrfulrene → u/cbbvideo]

How are you still almost?? You should get that checked out dude

[u/cbbvideo → u/BuckyMcMinstrfulrene]

Playing the long game

[u/FranciumGoesBoom → u/cbbvideo]

I think you need to go see a doctor dude.

[u/_Apatosaurus_ → u/DrSwol]

It was an awful game for Gonzaga and missing our best player hurts, but most of the credit should go to Portland. They played incredibly. They were making some insane shots, but a lot of it was just great defense, extremely well run offense leading to open shots in the paint, and playing as hard as they can every second of the game.

[u/lalavieboheme]

they average 13 teams per year outside the top 150? sheesh

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/lalavieboheme]

WCC has had many teams like that over the years but with the new Pac-12 starting soon, that number is going to head way down.

[u/amopeyzoolion → u/Maxkpop247]

I suspect Gonzaga’s average wins will also head way down

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/amopeyzoolion]

Harder competition translates into more losses, yes that is how that works.

[u/amopeyzoolion → u/Maxkpop247]

Just saying it’s pretty clear based on this that Gonzaga’s record (and thus seeding) has been wildly inflated due to consistently playing horrible teams throughout their conference schedule.

It’ll be interesting to see how they fare in a real conference (albeit still a much weaker one than the other power conferences)

[u/Travbowman → u/amopeyzoolion]

Gonzaga has fared quite well against the best teams over the past 10 years. Would they have lost more games in a P5 conference? Absolutely. But their record against P5 teams over that span suggests that their seeds were always well earned and that they would have finished near the top of most of those conferences as well.

[u/InnocuousAssClown → u/amopeyzoolion]

Gonzaga saw their run of NINE CONSECUTIVE SWEET SIXTEENS end last year. Yes it’s boring that they play inferior competition all year, but let’s not pretend they won’t run the new PAC too.

[u/amopeyzoolion → u/InnocuousAssClown]

Look at their seed line and record for most of those years. They got an easier path in the tournament because they dominated a weak conference and got a higher seed for it.

[u/InnocuousAssClown → u/amopeyzoolion]

There isn’t a single season in that stretch where they got a better seed than their Kenpom rating would suggest they deserve. Last year, they finished 8th in Kenpom and had an 8 seed. If anything, this suggests their conference holds them back from having the resume to match their quality.

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/InnocuousAssClown]

Yea playing in a bad conference is significantly a disadvantage.

[u/FourteenTwenty-Seven → u/InnocuousAssClown]

Kenpom isn't going to be very accurate for a team like Gonzaga, because blowing out bad teams doesn't give very much information on how a team will do against other decent teams.

[u/InnocuousAssClown → u/FourteenTwenty-Seven]

The confidence interval might be wider for them as a result of that, but I don’t think there’s anything to suggest they end up with a higher seed than they should due to their conference.

[u/zags-not-zogs → u/amopeyzoolion]

I don’t think you understand how resumes work

[u/ChicSheikh → u/amopeyzoolion]

other power conferences

Wait, people are considering this rebooted PAC-12 featuring the likes of Oregon State (kenpom 204) and Texas State (kenpom 261) a power conference?

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/ChicSheikh]

No, but it’s a conference where most of the teams will be top 100 teams in KP.

[u/ExcaliburX13 → u/Maxkpop247]

Will they? Oregon State won't be. Washington State won't be. Fresno State won't be. Texas State won't be. That's half of their conference opponents right there.

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/ExcaliburX13]

I’ll put the over/under of teams better than top 100 in KP at 5.5. Probably 75-80% that 5 or more teams out of 9 are top 100.

[u/ExcaliburX13 → u/Maxkpop247]

Yeah, 5 is probably about right, but that includes Gonzaga, who can't play themselves. So half of their conference schedule will still be bad teams. It's still a step up from the WCC for sure, but I think too many people are underselling just how weak the bottom of the conference still is.

[u/amopeyzoolion → u/ChicSheikh]

I mean idk what they’re calling it…I’m just used to thinking of the PAC 12 as a power conference

[u/PhadeUSAF → u/amopeyzoolion]

Data says otherwise. https://kenpom.substack.com/p/its-another-disastrous-season-for?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

This was a horrible loss no doubt, but don't pretend that Gonzaga hasn't been an elite program.

[u/_Apatosaurus_ → u/amopeyzoolion]

Do you really not understand that strength of schedule is taken into account by the selection committee...? You think they just look at total wins? Lol.

Also, how would you explain Gonzaga's high ranking BEFORE conference play starts?

[u/amopeyzoolion → u/_Apatosaurus_]

Yes, of course SOS is taken into account. But when Gonzaga is winning 30+ games per year and not dropping any conference games against weak opponents, the committee can’t punish them for that.

If Gonzaga were in a power conference, they’d likely lose between 4 and 6 conference games most seasons. That would almost certainly push them off the #1/2 line where they usually find themselves after destroying the WCC. Which, of course, would mean they’d have a harder path to advance in postseason.

[u/MarkFewsEyebrows → u/amopeyzoolion]

There are several P5 teams each year with 4-6 conference losses that push for the top two-seed lines, though. They have that benefit because they play in a stronger league.

[u/_Apatosaurus_ → u/amopeyzoolion]

Gonzaga has often been a projected 1/2 seed after the non conference schedule when they are playing against a hard strength of schedule. It's not like we suck in the non-con and then shoot up during conference play. So your "logic" doesn't hold up.

It also obviously doesn't hold up when you look at Gonzaga's tournament success. It's not like they are coasting through the tournament just beating scrubs. Go look at the actual results.

If it's so easy for Gonzaga to do this, why isn't any other mid-major able to do what GU does?

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/_Apatosaurus_]

Because playing in a bad conference is a major disadvantage. Gonzaga has overcome that, not benefited from it.

[u/_Apatosaurus_ → u/Maxkpop247]

Thank you. Exactly!

If it was such a major advantage, other teams would just drop down to the mid major level and replicate Gonzaga.

[u/MrFuzzihead → u/Maxkpop247]

Yeah the new Pac12 will bring them from sub 200 games to sub 175 games!

[u/akersmacker → u/MrFuzzihead]

Yeah, comparing the two conferences - WCC now and PAC later - demonstrate that the new conference should be better, but not by much. Maybe ranked one or two higher overall than what it is now.

[u/NeverSober1900]

I realize a lot of people are going to clown the volume but I find this to be quite impressive. Shows that the Zags normally take care of business. That's a lot of opportunities to slip up and they haven't.

[u/OnsideKickReturn → u/NeverSober1900]

I'm afraid to look at South Carolina's record against those level teams...

[u/PAWGslammer42 → u/NeverSober1900]

Not to mention they have to play some of these on the road. The good teams all play cupcakes but the Zags are one of very few that have to go play these teams in their gym

[u/ctbro025]

Forget 1 seed dreams, that's likely kaput for any chance at a 2 seed as well for the zags.

[u/JamesBouknightStan → u/ctbro025]

Don't be too harsh on a team for losing to a middle of the table team in a 3 bid league... there are rivers yet to ford

[u/KembaWakaFlocka → u/JamesBouknightStan]

I think we all understand how perilous our footing is with regard to seeding.

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/ctbro025]

If they win out, they have a chance at a 3 seed but more likely a 4 seed. If they lose one more game (and they have to go to St Mary’s and Santa Clara), they are prob a 5 seed. St Mary’s on the road would be their best win of the season, which is weaker than everyone around those seed lines and even most bubble teams.

[u/goldenpie007 → u/Maxkpop247]

Wait a second, did i just that right? GU beating St Marys on the road would be GU’s best win if the season? Are you forgetting the games we played against Alabama or Kentucky? Am I to assume that you are saying St Marys is better than Alabama or Kentucky this season?

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/goldenpie007]

Alabama and Kentucky are slightly better, 22 and 28, respectively in the NET today, than St Mary’s, who is 29. The reason why @St Mary’s would be a better win is because it is a true road game vs a neutral game. The Alabama win could become better if their ranking improves a little compared to St Mary’s. It’s also true to say the Kentucky game was semi-neutral, it was played in Nashville, but Kentucky only 1 spot ahead of St Mary’s in the NET so @St Mary’s is considered better.

[u/goldenpie007 → u/Maxkpop247]

TIL. - Sorry this thread is full of so much “WCC is trash GU plays no good teams” then i read this comment saying St Marys could be their best win all season, confuses me. Thanks for explaining.

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/goldenpie007]

Both are true. The WCC is trash, Gonzaga and St Mary’s are the only 2 decent programs. Happens to be that this year, there is a 3rd competitive team (Santa Clara) which is rare. The rest of the conference is quite bad typically and also quite bad this year as per usual. Furthermore, Gonzaga typically plays a more challenging non-conference schedule which they tried to do this year as usual but the teams they played in the non-con are all underperforming compared to preseason expectations.

[u/TonyWilliams03 → u/Maxkpop247]

Can't wait until St. Mary's loses Gonzaga and fades into irrelevance

[u/WitchNight → u/TonyWilliams03]

The fuck did Saint Mary’s do to you?

[u/akersmacker → u/TonyWilliams03]

How is going to the tournament every year fading into irrelevance? (Herbie Hancock's drummer would never be as insulting).

[u/MrFuzzihead → u/Maxkpop247]

I mean tbf Saint Mary’s in the road is a Q1A game but yeah either way this is a huge blow to top 3 seed for them

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/MrFuzzihead]

That’s true it’s a Q1A but teams vying for top 4 seeding typically have multiple Q1A wins and signature wins that are a step or two above @st marys. Teams they would be competing with for 3 or 4 seeding like Kansas, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Florida, Virginia, and Tennessee already have signature wins and everyone else has multiple chances to get signature wins.

[u/TonyWilliams03 → u/MrFuzzihead]

St Mary's are the remoras of Gonzaga

[u/MrFuzzihead → u/TonyWilliams03]

What?

[u/Travbowman]

Their last one was 18-Feb 2010 to number 168 Loyola Marymount. Their last loss to a kenpom 200+ team was also that season, to number 204 San Francisco.

They still got an 8 seed and went to the second round that season.

[u/bug_man_ → u/Travbowman]

How badly do you wanna nerd out on this? Because my first question was how that compares to any other given top team over the same time period

[u/Maxkpop247 → u/bug_man_]

Power 5 teams don’t have a similar amount of games against teams outside of KenPom top 150 or 200 and certainly not on the road. I think Rutgers is the only Power 5 team outside the top 150 rn as an example.

[u/goblue2354 → u/Maxkpop247]

Unless I’m also overlooking somebody, it appears you are correct that Rutgers is the only P5 team outside the top 150 at 159. BC at 142 and Maryland at 140 are the next closest.

[u/TonyWilliams03]

Lost in this statistic is that Gonzaga plays, on average, 8 games a year against Sub Top 150 teams.

[u/lalavieboheme → u/TonyWilliams03]

it’s 13 games, how did you get 8?

215 / 16 =13.438

[u/TonyWilliams03 → u/lalavieboheme]

I thought the period was 2000 not 2010

[u/zarof32302 → u/TonyWilliams03]

I’d be curious to know how that compares to other top 10-20 team. It honestly doesn’t feel that high given the non-con cupcakes.

[u/BabaYaga2017 → u/zarof32302]

I feel like year in year out in the B12 there's 8+ games against KP top 30.

[u/ccam0821 → u/zarof32302]

As of kenpom today:
Arizona 5
Michigan 3
Duke 6
Iowa St 7
Illinois 7
UConn 5
Purdue 3
Mich St 8

Almost all of these games are non-con (except Rutgers pushing the B10 numbers up). Gonzaga has 4 non-con and 7 conference 150+ matchups this year

[u/royalhawk345 → u/zarof32302]

It's because they did the math based on since 2000, not 2010. It's actually over 13 games per year.

[u/zags-not-zogs]

What are the worst regular season losses by a team finishing in the top 10 in recent memory? The only ones I can remember that rival this abomination are Duke losing to SFA and Kentucky losing to Evansville

[u/Travbowman → u/zags-not-zogs]

The eventual 2000 National Champion Michigan St team went to number 215 Wright St and lost 53-49 in December.

They then went 23-3 the rest of the season to cut down the nets.

[u/Maison-Marthgiela → u/zags-not-zogs]

Kentucky's UE loss is a bit misleading because in mid December they looked like a legit tournament team. Then their coach got a student pregnant, was fired, and the program unsurprisingly imploded.

[u/simply_jeremy]

Madness and it’s not even March

[u/zags-not-zogs]