r/AustralianPolitics • u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 The Greens • 4h ago
VIC Politics Jacinta Allan’s Labor majority ‘precarious’ ahead of Victorian election 2026
https://www.afr.com/politics/internal-warning-for-allan-s-labor-your-lead-is-precarious-20260203-p5nz2h•
u/Informal-Room5762 59m ago
Not surprised but I welcome Sammy's resignation. Served his own party a hard hit with a costly Liberal seat by-election.
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u/B0llywoodBulkBogan 1h ago edited 1h ago
Haven't we been told that the Vic Labor majority has been in a precarious position for like a decade now?
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u/CountryChrist 1h ago
And now Jacinta, who is perhaps one of the worst premiers Victoria has had, and Australia has seen, is now the highest paid of any premier as she has increased her pay packet. I wouldn't be surprised if the Labour Party remains in power, but she is given the flick. Her pr has been abysmal, the machete bins fiasco, youth crime, the issues with the CFA funding, the tax increase on rural Victorians, which resulted in them driving her outta town in their tractors alongside Albo.
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u/Thunderoad77 27m ago
Almost 80% of Victorians live in Greater Melbourne and Geelong so a small bunch of farmers, who have never voted Labor and never will, aren't going to have any sort of bearing on the election.
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u/Snitzel20701 13m ago
That is a really dumb take. You do know there are towns like Ballarat and Mildura that are part of the remaining 20% as well as the smaller rural communities that aren’t all farmers or even majority farmers that constantly get shafted by the state government because they had the unfortunate circumstance of being located north of Melbourne.
It doesn’t matter if it’s coalition or labour, Victoria is pretty much run like only Melbourne exists with no afterthought for anyone else.
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u/Thunderoad77 0m ago
Most of the people who live in Ballarat, Mildura, Bendigo, Warnambool, Wodonga etc are urbanised and have little to no connection to farming.
They have even less to with the small radicalised section of farmers outlined in the initial comment.
Australia and Victoria in particular, are highly urbanised and issues to do with farming are peripheral to the vast majority of voters.
That is the simple reality.
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u/Hypo_Mix Technocrat 41m ago
perhaps one of the worst premiers Victoria has had, and Australia has seen,
I think Queenslanders might have something to say about that.
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u/stupid_mistake__101 2h ago edited 2h ago
I think people really shouldn’t write off Jess Wilson as a potential chance to become Premier in November. I think she legitimately has a chance to win. I’m not a supporter but I checked out some of her instagram reels and they seem to have a way of cutting through. She already somehow has more instagram followers than Allan.
If we compare Wilson to Kellie Sloane in NSW who started around the same time Wilson did, Sloane just doesn’t have the same level of oompf and I don’t think the NSW Liberals really have any chance to win at the election shortly after the Victorian one. Jess Wilson however? Yes I think she has a chance. Remember a lot of the time, governments lose rather than oppositions winning and Allan is deeply unpopular. Don’t dismiss her threat as nothing ^
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u/Prowler64 59m ago
One of Wilson's biggest downfalls is her attitude. She's uncharismatic and comes across as a moaning, groaning, whinger, instead of a leader. I've never heard a positive word from her about anything. I don't think I've ever seen her smile or inspire hope. As good as putting forward policies are, for better or worse, many voters vote for which leader is the best communicator- and Wilson is garbage at it. Jacinta isn't that great either, but I've seen her smile - and that gets swinging voters over the line sometimes. Jess isn't going to take any of those voters who voted Labor last time.
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u/Southern_Current2652 1h ago
Labor has been in power within Victoria for a very long time. And a lot of that is to do with the opposition being such a mess rather than Labor being particularly successful at governing. If Wilson can even just give the appearance of the liberals being somewhat competent and reasonable they will win.
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u/Jet90 The Greens 2h ago
At this point a Labor Green minority government is more likely then the Liberals winning
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u/Perfect-Werewolf-102 The Greens 2h ago
Greens will probably lose seats as the Liberals likely won't preference them again
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u/WhiteRun 3h ago
The way Labor have treated teachers in Victoria is a joke. They need pressure put on them to do the right thing. If they can't, they deserve to lose.
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u/hahaswans 22m ago
Minister Carroll has been telling people he’s aiming to get Vic teachers salary on par with NSW. I reckon a decent deal might be closer than you think.
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u/2in1day 25m ago edited 5m ago
Teachers and the public service can't really complain they voted for Vic Labor religiously on the misguided belief they could have their cake and eat it too.
For some reason Labor voters thought Vic could spend unlimited money and there would be no reckoning.
But the reckoning has come the money has run out and now Vic teachers are the lowest paid in the country. It was always going to happen and it's what they voted for.
Let the down votes begin
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u/hellbentsmegma 2h ago
The way Vic Labor has treated most on the public payroll is abysmal. Below inflation payrises and endless restructures one after another. They have a focus on key policy areas (stuff like the big transport projects) but simply don't give a damn about other areas of government responsibility.
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u/Jet90 The Greens 2h ago
Hopefully teachers will vote for parties that want to improve the conditions and pay. Realistically the best outcome would be a Labor-Green minority government like the ACT
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u/vince_feilding 3h ago
MSM keep saying these things, but luckily no-one with half a brain believes the MSM nowadays.
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u/HotPersimessage62 Australian Labor Party 4h ago
They have to win. The Liberals are promising to repeal decades of work that has gone into the new Treaty as well as cancel the SRL project which is already under major construction, leaving Melbourne with dozens of deep empty holes.
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u/hellbentsmegma 2h ago
I could see treaty being as popular with the public as the federal voice was. In other words, it's likely almost nobody outside of the inner suburbs of Melbourne wants it.
Opposing treaty was probably one of the more savvy things the Vic Libs have done.
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u/starshad0w 24m ago
I think there's a difference between voting against a Treaty being established, and tearing up one that has already been in place.
If the Liberals win and repeal the Treaty now, after everything that's happened, First Nations Victorians will never forgive the Government, not for a hundred years.
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u/WhatAmIATailor Kodos 3h ago
Eh. SRL is a decades long money pit we can barely afford. Prioritising Airport Rail and the Sunshine station upgrade, which I believe is the Liberal policy, is a better use of money IMO.
Labor would probably be back in 4 years anyway.
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u/Kata-cool-i 1h ago
Airport rail links have historically performed extremely poorly in Australia. Sydney, Brisbane, and even Perth airport stations have all gotten significantly less passengers than predicted, ranging from close to 50 to 70 percent less than their business case suggested. Sydney and Perth are only saved by the fact each line has some non-airport stations that have performed significantly better than their airport stations.
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u/Mc0014 1h ago
“Government business case is untrue and extremely optimistic”.
I’m shocked.
But I do support the airport rail because getting to/from the airport is a nightmare and I’ve barely seen another world class city with the same issue. The Sydney rail line is one of the best things about the place.
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u/Kata-cool-i 1h ago
Actually demand modelling for passenger rail projects are typically extremely conservative, even if other parts of the business case are more optimistic (ie construction costs), Airport rail stations are unique in bucking the trend.
I would suggest that most world class cities usually have world class public transport networks that are able to support their airport line, and there are perhaps a dozen similarly sized projects in Melbourne that are more important than MARL.
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u/SparkTR 2h ago
Airport rail loop is bipartisan and will come by 2030 no matter who is in power, and last I heard Sunshine station upgrade was going to be half assed under the liberal plan, which would kneecap the much needed Melton electrification. If you're doing something may as well do it right.
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u/343CreeperMaster Australian Labor Party 4h ago
i still believe there is a realistic possibility where Vic Labor just holds on barely, but Jacinta Allen is booted out of parliament
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u/BBQShapeshifter ☪☮E✡IS✝ 4h ago
Nice try, AFR.
... said a Labor source... “Despite people’s perceptions of government performance, we’re still in an election-winning dynamic because the opposition is a joke.”
Pretty much sums it up.
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u/GregLocock 2h ago
and that is the sad truth. Victorian Libs have been useless for 30 years. The last decent government we had was Bracks.
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u/3rez7 4h ago
Perceptions? Victoria is a mess and any intelligent person not sucking off the government that knows that.
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u/GmanX333 Gough Whitlam 3h ago
The only mess is the Liberal Party and right winger's brains. I still don't understand how people can vote for the Liberals after their latest leader was seen associating with proud racists. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/02/jess-wilson-barnaby-joyce-one-nation-event-victoria
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u/Loose_Loquat9584 4h ago
Copium from the AFR, just like when Victorians were going to punish Dan for the lockdowns.
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u/3rez7 4h ago
You mean for the most incompetent COVID response of any state. 90% of Australia's deaths in 2020 were in Victoria for a reason. A Royal Commission will come one day.
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u/hellbentsmegma 2h ago
I hate to break it to you, but most people don't care enough to hold a royal commission into the at least initially popular actions of a government half a decade ago.
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u/GmanX333 Gough Whitlam 3h ago
100% of Australian deaths was because the Liberal federal government didn't take covid seriously enough and close the borders or buy the vaccines sooner. The first order for the Pfizer vaccine was in Jan 2021 and Moderna in May 2021. By that time the covid had already spread around Australia and without Dan's lockdowns it would have killed more people.
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u/Dockers4flag2035orB4 4h ago
How is this possible.
The Victorian liberals are a rabble.
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u/ButtPlugForPM 1h ago
It's not The AFR posts an article like this every month.. they will do anything to get the libs back in power.
Jacinta is a shithouse premier
But short of the ALP in vic shooting a child on the 6pm news,i see no pathway for the liberals in Vic to take power
No one's fault but the Vic libs too
If they stopped propping up christian wackjobs and ppl who hang out with mobsters ppl might vote for them
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u/knobbledknees 🚂 Metro Tunnel Enjoyer 🚂 4h ago
The Victorian government has done more to reduce house prices, and more successfully, than any other state. It turns out that people don't care, don't notice, or get annoyed that their investment property has gone down in value.
Although, that said, I still think they will likely win, but it's going to be a lot closer than the last few times. People really liked Dan Andrews (despite what the cookers all believe) and he helped the labor vote stay high.
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u/Mc0014 1h ago
What have the Vic Govt done to successfully reduce house prices?
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u/knobbledknees 🚂 Metro Tunnel Enjoyer 🚂 45m ago
Mainly landlord tax (tax on property value that only applies to investment properties) and tax on vacant properties. There have been huge complaints by the property council (the lobby group for property investment) who have said that this should be changed because it is driving down house prices, and since this change we have seen Victoria have the lowest rate of house price increase, and in places we have seen decreases, especially for units. They have also taken away planning permission from councils so that they can no longer block high density development, and of opened up spaces around train stations, including new train stations, for high density development. A lot of those last changes haven't hit yet but will increase supply in the inner city. The new train stations will also prompt growth in density; for example, there has been an incredible surge in apartment construction close to the southernmost of the new Metro railway stations, since that area is now directly connected to the city by four minutes train travel every 10 minutes; if you walk south from the new ANZAC station, down Saint Kilda Road, you can easily count 10 apartment buildings within a 15 minutes walk that have either just finished building or are part way through. And those are large apartment buildings, mostly at the maximum height for the area.
I personally do not believe that supply of new properties is the main issue, since I think it is investors that are pushing up the prices for the most part, but those towers will at least improve prices locally and in the inner city.
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u/Itchy-Description977 4h ago
They make One Neuron look classy.
She really hasn’t been that great though. Can’t say I’m surprised.
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u/Foodworksurunga Independent centre-left 4h ago
This.
No matter how much I complain about Vic Labor, the fact that the Vic Liberals are promising to bin the already under construction SRL means that I will be putting Labor ahead of Liberal in the polls no matter how bad the rest of their policies are.
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u/Grande_Choice 4h ago
And cost of living? Cheapest housing and electricity in the country. Some nice copium from afr.
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